Seattle vs Minnesota — MLS 2026
Seattle: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Minnesota: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Seattle's home form is the steadier of the two, with 1.5 points per home match against Minnesota's 1.31 points per away match, though the gap is narrow. Minnesota's away record is actually better than their home record, while Seattle's home and away splits are nearly identical, so the table gap of three points flatters Seattle only slightly.
Seattle
MinnesotaScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Minnesota's away attack is the sharper of the two, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Seattle's 1.5 per home match. Seattle's home scoring is only slightly above their overall average of 1.2, while Minnesota's away output is well above their overall 1.5, so the visitors carry the more dangerous attacking profile into this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Seattle's home defense is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.5 goals per home match against Minnesota's 2.3 per away match. Minnesota's away defense is a clear weakness, conceding well above their overall 1.8 average, while Seattle's home figure matches their season rate exactly.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Seattle are most dangerous late, scoring 33% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Minnesota peak earlier with 31% of their goals in the 61-75 minute band. Minnesota are also vulnerable early, conceding 22% of their goals in both the 0-15 and 16-30 windows, so the match could open up after a cautious start.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Minnesota's away matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% going over 2.5 goals on the road against Seattle's 50% at home. Seattle's home matches average 3.0 combined goals while Minnesota's away matches average 4.23, and Minnesota have failed to score in just 7.69% of away matches compared to Seattle's 25% at home.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 59%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
Our model prices the over 3 goals line at 59%, while the market's implied probability sits at 52%. That leaves our read about 7 percentage points higher than the market's, a moderate edge toward more goals than the odds currently reflect.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Seattle lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Seattle conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Minnesota conceded on average 3.4 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 1.4 cards per match, while Minnesota have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 0.4 cards in the first half per match, while Minnesota have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Seattle have been awarded an average of 3.8 corners per match, while Minnesota have averaged 5.2 corners.
The chances of seeing a goal from Seattle in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from Minnesota within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Seattle's home form is the steadier of the two, with 1.5 points per home match against Minnesota's 1.31 points per away match, though the gap is narrow. Minnesota's away record is actually better than their home record, while Seattle's home and away splits are nearly identical, so the table gap of three points flatters Seattle only slightly.
SeattleMinnesotaHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Seattle have had the better of this matchup, winning 4 of the 10 meetings to Minnesota's 2, with 4 draws and an average of 2.9 total goals. The most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in March, and both teams scored in half of the encounters, suggesting a competitive but not high-scoring history.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Minnesota's away attack is the sharper of the two, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Seattle's 1.5 per home match. Seattle's home scoring is only slightly above their overall average of 1.2, while Minnesota's away output is well above their overall 1.5, so the visitors carry the more dangerous attacking profile into this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Seattle's home defense is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.5 goals per home match against Minnesota's 2.3 per away match. Minnesota's away defense is a clear weakness, conceding well above their overall 1.8 average, while Seattle's home figure matches their season rate exactly.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Seattle are most dangerous late, scoring 33% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Minnesota peak earlier with 31% of their goals in the 61-75 minute band. Minnesota are also vulnerable early, conceding 22% of their goals in both the 0-15 and 16-30 windows, so the match could open up after a cautious start.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Minnesota's away matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% going over 2.5 goals on the road against Seattle's 50% at home. Seattle's home matches average 3.0 combined goals while Minnesota's away matches average 4.23, and Minnesota have failed to score in just 7.69% of away matches compared to Seattle's 25% at home.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 59%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
Our model prices the over 3 goals line at 59%, while the market's implied probability sits at 52%. That leaves our read about 7 percentage points higher than the market's, a moderate edge toward more goals than the odds currently reflect.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Seattle lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Seattle conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Minnesota conceded on average 3.4 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 1.4 cards per match, while Minnesota have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 0.4 cards in the first half per match, while Minnesota have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Seattle have been awarded an average of 3.8 corners per match, while Minnesota have averaged 5.2 corners.
The chances of seeing a goal from Seattle in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from Minnesota within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Seattle arrive unbeaten in six league matches but with a draw-heavy profile that has kept them mid-table, while Minnesota are the more volatile side, scoring freely on the road yet losing four of their last six. The clearest signal is the total goals market, where our model prices over 3 goals at 59% against the market's 52%, a gap driven by Minnesota's away matches averaging 4.23 combined goals this season. The key uncertainty is whether Seattle's second-half scoring edge can offset Minnesota's early defensive leaks, given both teams have shown they can concede in bunches.