Houston vs Kansas City — MLS 2026
Houston: 1 yellow card, 1 red card
Kansas City: 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The table gap is stark but flatters neither side: Houston sit 5th with 44 points and a home record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, while Kansas City are 30th with 18 points and an away record of 2 wins, 0 draws and 10 losses. Houston's home goal difference of +7 against Kansas City's away goal difference of -26 shows the gap widens when venue is accounted for, making this a clear home advantage on paper.
Houston
Kansas CityScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Houston's home attack is modest but more reliable than Kansas City's on the road, scoring 1.3 goals per home match against Kansas City's 0.9 away. Houston's attacking share at home is 62.96% of match goals, while Kansas City's away share is just 22.92%, a clear signal that Houston control the scoring in their own stadium.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
The defensive contrast is the widest in this fixture: Houston concede 0.8 goals per home match, while Kansas City concede 3.1 per away match. Houston have kept a clean sheet in 46.15% of home matches, whereas Kansas City have none in 12 away matches, making a Houston clean sheet a live possibility.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Houston are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 29% of their goals between minutes 31-45, while Kansas City's peak scoring window is shared across 16-30, 31-45 and 61-75 at 21% each. Houston are also most vulnerable late, conceding 33% of their goals after the 76th minute, which could matter if Kansas City chase the match.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The goal environments could hardly be more different: 38.46% of Houston's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while 80% of Kansas City's have, and on the road that rises to 91.67%. Houston's home matches average 2.08 combined goals against Kansas City's 4.0 away, so the over/under question hinges on which template wins out.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
The total goals market prices over 3.0 goals at 49%, while our model puts the probability at 53%, giving our read a 4 percentage point edge toward the over. That is a marginal difference, not a strong signal, and it rests on a season sample that sees Kansas City's away matches routinely clearing 2.5 goals.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Kansas City have conceded a total of 63 goals, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Houston have conceded a total of only 10 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Houston lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
Kansas City have been struggling lately. They lost 4 of their last 5 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Kansas City have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Kansas City have averaged 1.6 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 0.8 goals per match while Kansas City conceded on average 2.8 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Kansas City have averaged 3.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Houston within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The table gap is stark but flatters neither side: Houston sit 5th with 44 points and a home record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, while Kansas City are 30th with 18 points and an away record of 2 wins, 0 draws and 10 losses. Houston's home goal difference of +7 against Kansas City's away goal difference of -26 shows the gap widens when venue is accounted for, making this a clear home advantage on paper.
HoustonKansas CityHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Recent meetings between these two have been tight, with Houston winning 4, Kansas City 2, and 4 draws across the last 10, and an average of just 2.0 goals per match. At this venue, the record is 2 Houston wins, 1 Kansas City win and 3 draws in 6 meetings, suggesting a closely matched history that leans slightly toward the home side.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Houston's home attack is modest but more reliable than Kansas City's on the road, scoring 1.3 goals per home match against Kansas City's 0.9 away. Houston's attacking share at home is 62.96% of match goals, while Kansas City's away share is just 22.92%, a clear signal that Houston control the scoring in their own stadium.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
The defensive contrast is the widest in this fixture: Houston concede 0.8 goals per home match, while Kansas City concede 3.1 per away match. Houston have kept a clean sheet in 46.15% of home matches, whereas Kansas City have none in 12 away matches, making a Houston clean sheet a live possibility.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Houston are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 29% of their goals between minutes 31-45, while Kansas City's peak scoring window is shared across 16-30, 31-45 and 61-75 at 21% each. Houston are also most vulnerable late, conceding 33% of their goals after the 76th minute, which could matter if Kansas City chase the match.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The goal environments could hardly be more different: 38.46% of Houston's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while 80% of Kansas City's have, and on the road that rises to 91.67%. Houston's home matches average 2.08 combined goals against Kansas City's 4.0 away, so the over/under question hinges on which template wins out.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
The total goals market prices over 3.0 goals at 49%, while our model puts the probability at 53%, giving our read a 4 percentage point edge toward the over. That is a marginal difference, not a strong signal, and it rests on a season sample that sees Kansas City's away matches routinely clearing 2.5 goals.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Kansas City have conceded a total of 63 goals, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Houston have conceded a total of only 10 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Houston lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
Kansas City have been struggling lately. They lost 4 of their last 5 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Kansas City have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Kansas City have averaged 1.6 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 0.8 goals per match while Kansas City conceded on average 2.8 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Kansas City have averaged 3.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Houston within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Houston's home solidity meets Kansas City's away fragility in a match where the table gap is real but the goal environment is the sharper story. Houston have conceded just 0.8 goals per home match this season, while Kansas City have shipped 3.1 per away match, and the market prices the home side at 64% to win. The totals market sits at 3.0 goals with a lean to the under, yet Kansas City's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 92% of cases this season. The key uncertainty is whether Houston's controlled, low-scoring home template can contain a Kansas City side whose away matches average 4.0 combined goals.