Columbus vs Miami — MLS 2026
Columbus: 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSMiami: 6 yellow cards, 1 red card
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 27, 2026, 2:11 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami's 4th-place standing is built on a strong away record of 8 wins from 13 away matches, while Columbus sit 27th with only 5 home wins from 13 at home. The gap is real but the venue split narrows it: Miami's away points per game of 2.08 is the standout figure, yet Columbus's home goal difference of +2 shows they are competitive at home despite the table position.
Columbus
MiamiScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Attack
Miami's away attack is clearly the stronger of the two, averaging 2.2 goals per away match against Columbus's 1.3 at home. That gap of 0.9 goals per match is the largest single attacking edge in this fixture, and Miami's recent away form of 2.0 goals per away match over their last five supports it.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Columbus's home defence is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.2 goals per home match compared with Miami's 1.7 per away match. That half-goal difference is meaningful, but Miami's away record of only 2 losses in 13 away matches suggests they rarely get beaten even when they concede.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 30% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, while Columbus peak earlier with 27% of their goals coming between the 31st and 45th minute. Both teams also concede heavily late, with Columbus conceding 26% and Miami 21% in that same final window, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami's matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 77% of their matches going over 2.5 goals this season compared with 69% for Columbus. At this venue, Miami's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 69% of cases, while Columbus's home matches have done so in only 54%, a gap that points to the away side driving the goal count.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 61%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The market prices the total at 3.25 goals with a 52% implied probability of the over. Our model puts the over at 39%, a difference of about 13 percentage points, meaning our season-based read sits below the market's expectation for goals.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 92%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 4.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 81%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge minus 5.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 62%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge minus 6.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 35%, bookmaker correct-score price 47%, edge minus 12.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 27%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge minus 0.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Miami lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Columbus have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Miami have averaged 1.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Columbus conceded on average 1 goals per match while Miami conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Columbus have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Miami have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 20 MLS matches, Columbus have been awarded an average of 4.3 corners per match, while Miami have averaged 5.2 corners.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami's 4th-place standing is built on a strong away record of 8 wins from 13 away matches, while Columbus sit 27th with only 5 home wins from 13 at home. The gap is real but the venue split narrows it: Miami's away points per game of 2.08 is the standout figure, yet Columbus's home goal difference of +2 shows they are competitive at home despite the table position.
ColumbusMiamiHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Miami have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Columbus, with 2 draws and only 2 Columbus wins, and the average of 3.5 total goals per meeting points to open matches. At this venue, Miami have won 3 of the 5 meetings, so the historical edge is with the away side, though the sample is small.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Attack
Miami's away attack is clearly the stronger of the two, averaging 2.2 goals per away match against Columbus's 1.3 at home. That gap of 0.9 goals per match is the largest single attacking edge in this fixture, and Miami's recent away form of 2.0 goals per away match over their last five supports it.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Columbus's home defence is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.2 goals per home match compared with Miami's 1.7 per away match. That half-goal difference is meaningful, but Miami's away record of only 2 losses in 13 away matches suggests they rarely get beaten even when they concede.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 30% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, while Columbus peak earlier with 27% of their goals coming between the 31st and 45th minute. Both teams also concede heavily late, with Columbus conceding 26% and Miami 21% in that same final window, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 27, 2026
Miami's matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 77% of their matches going over 2.5 goals this season compared with 69% for Columbus. At this venue, Miami's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 69% of cases, while Columbus's home matches have done so in only 54%, a gap that points to the away side driving the goal count.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 61%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The market prices the total at 3.25 goals with a 52% implied probability of the over. Our model puts the over at 39%, a difference of about 13 percentage points, meaning our season-based read sits below the market's expectation for goals.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 92%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 4.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 81%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge minus 5.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 62%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge minus 6.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 35%, bookmaker correct-score price 47%, edge minus 12.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 27%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge minus 0.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Miami lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Columbus have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Miami have averaged 1.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Columbus conceded on average 1 goals per match while Miami conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Columbus have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Miami have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 20 MLS matches, Columbus have been awarded an average of 4.3 corners per match, while Miami have averaged 5.2 corners.
About The Match
Miami arrive as the market's away favourite and the better side on the season, but the venue picture is tighter than the table suggests. Columbus's home record is modest at 1.3 goals scored per home match, while Miami's away attack at 2.2 per away match is the clearest attacking edge in this fixture. The key uncertainty is whether Columbus's recent defensive solidity at home, conceding just 1.2 per home match, can hold against a Miami side that has scored in every one of its last five matches.