Nashville vs Toronto — MLS 2026
Nashville: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Toronto: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Nashville's 57 points and 1st place dwarf Toronto's 29 points and 26th, but the home/away split shows the true edge. Nashville have won all 13 home matches, while Toronto have managed just 2 wins from 12 away trips, leaving the gap at its widest where this match is played.
Nashville
TorontoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Nashville's home attack is clearly the stronger, averaging 3.0 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away. That gap of over two goals per match is the largest attacking edge in this fixture, and Nashville's recent home form has pushed it even higher.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's defence is far more solid at home, conceding 0.9 per match, while Toronto concede 1.8 away. Nashville have kept a clean sheet in 38% of home matches, while Toronto have managed just 25% away, making the hosts the clear favourites to keep it tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous late, with Nashville scoring 26% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window and Toronto 38%. Toronto's second-half scoring is particularly pronounced, with 72% of their goals coming after the break, which could make the closing stages the most open part of the match.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Nashville's home matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% going over 2.5 goals at this venue, while Toronto's away matches are at 66.67%. Nashville's home games average 3.92 combined goals, well above Toronto's 2.58 away, and Nashville have failed to score in 0% of home matches this season.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market sets the line at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48% and the under at 52%. Our model puts the over at 55%, giving us an edge of about 7 percentage points toward more goals than the market expects.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 21 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Toronto have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Nashville have been awarded an average of 6.3 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 3.8 corners.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Nashville conceded on average 0.8 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
Nashville blocks 77% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Nashville within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 2 cards.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Nashville's 57 points and 1st place dwarf Toronto's 29 points and 26th, but the home/away split shows the true edge. Nashville have won all 13 home matches, while Toronto have managed just 2 wins from 12 away trips, leaving the gap at its widest where this match is played.
NashvilleTorontoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
The last 10 meetings are evenly split with 4 wins apiece and 2 draws, but Nashville have had the edge recently, winning 4 of the last 5. At this venue, the 5 meetings have produced 2 Nashville wins, 2 Toronto wins and a draw, so history offers no clear home advantage.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Nashville's home attack is clearly the stronger, averaging 3.0 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away. That gap of over two goals per match is the largest attacking edge in this fixture, and Nashville's recent home form has pushed it even higher.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's defence is far more solid at home, conceding 0.9 per match, while Toronto concede 1.8 away. Nashville have kept a clean sheet in 38% of home matches, while Toronto have managed just 25% away, making the hosts the clear favourites to keep it tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous late, with Nashville scoring 26% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window and Toronto 38%. Toronto's second-half scoring is particularly pronounced, with 72% of their goals coming after the break, which could make the closing stages the most open part of the match.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Nashville's home matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% going over 2.5 goals at this venue, while Toronto's away matches are at 66.67%. Nashville's home games average 3.92 combined goals, well above Toronto's 2.58 away, and Nashville have failed to score in 0% of home matches this season.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market sets the line at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48% and the under at 52%. Our model puts the over at 55%, giving us an edge of about 7 percentage points toward more goals than the market expects.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 21 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Toronto have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Nashville have been awarded an average of 6.3 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 3.8 corners.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Nashville conceded on average 0.8 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
Nashville blocks 77% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Nashville within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 2 cards.
About The Match
Nashville arrive as the league's top side with a perfect home record, while Toronto sit near the bottom and have lost their last two away matches. The gulf is starkest at home, where Nashville score 3.0 goals per match and have won all five of their recent home fixtures, against a Toronto side conceding 1.8 per away match. The market prices Nashville as heavy favourites, but the total goals line sits at 3.25 with a lean to the under, and our model sees slightly more goals than the market. The key uncertainty is whether Toronto's second-half scoring can keep this competitive, given Nashville's own late-game strength.