Austin vs San Diego — MLS 2026
Austin: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
San Diego: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
San Diego sit one place above Austin in the table, but their away record is the weaker of the two: just 2 wins and 6 losses from 12 away matches, compared with Austin's 4 wins and 3 losses from 12 at home. Austin's home goal difference is +4 while San Diego's away is -8, so the venue flatters the hosts and the table gap understates the home edge.
Austin
San DiegoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Austin score 1.3 goals per home match while San Diego manage just 1.0 away, a modest edge for the hosts that is reinforced by Austin's 57% attacking share at home against San Diego's 38% away. Austin's recent home scoring is 1.4 per match, so the gap is real but not large.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Austin concede only 1.0 goals per home match, the strongest defensive figure in this fixture, while San Diego concede 1.7 away. Austin's home clean sheet rate is 33% against San Diego's 17% away, making the hosts clearly more solid at the back.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Austin are most dangerous late, scoring 41% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while San Diego's peak scoring band is 46-60 minutes at 20%. Austin also concede 43% of their goals in the same late window, so the match could open up after the hour mark.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals 65% of the time across the whole season, but at this venue the rates drop sharply: Austin's home matches go over 2.5 just 42% of the time and San Diego's away matches also 42%. Austin's home matches average 2.33 combined goals, San Diego's away 2.67, so the venue picture points to a lower-scoring match than the season averages suggest.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 71%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals with a 49% implied probability of over, while our model puts the over at just 29%. That leaves our read about 20 percentage points below the market's, a substantial gap driven by Austin's low-scoring home matches and San Diego's poor away scoring.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Austin conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while San Diego conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while San Diego have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while San Diego have averaged 3.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while San Diego have averaged 4.8 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Austin within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
San Diego sit one place above Austin in the table, but their away record is the weaker of the two: just 2 wins and 6 losses from 12 away matches, compared with Austin's 4 wins and 3 losses from 12 at home. Austin's home goal difference is +4 while San Diego's away is -8, so the venue flatters the hosts and the table gap understates the home edge.
AustinSan DiegoHead-to-Head · LAST 3 MEETINGS
San Diego have won 2 of the 3 meetings between these sides, including a 5-0 home win in the most recent one, and the average total goals across those matches is 3.33. Austin's only win came at home, so the head-to-head points to San Diego's superiority but offers little venue-specific comfort for either side.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Austin score 1.3 goals per home match while San Diego manage just 1.0 away, a modest edge for the hosts that is reinforced by Austin's 57% attacking share at home against San Diego's 38% away. Austin's recent home scoring is 1.4 per match, so the gap is real but not large.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Austin concede only 1.0 goals per home match, the strongest defensive figure in this fixture, while San Diego concede 1.7 away. Austin's home clean sheet rate is 33% against San Diego's 17% away, making the hosts clearly more solid at the back.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Austin are most dangerous late, scoring 41% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while San Diego's peak scoring band is 46-60 minutes at 20%. Austin also concede 43% of their goals in the same late window, so the match could open up after the hour mark.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals 65% of the time across the whole season, but at this venue the rates drop sharply: Austin's home matches go over 2.5 just 42% of the time and San Diego's away matches also 42%. Austin's home matches average 2.33 combined goals, San Diego's away 2.67, so the venue picture points to a lower-scoring match than the season averages suggest.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 71%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals with a 49% implied probability of over, while our model puts the over at just 29%. That leaves our read about 20 percentage points below the market's, a substantial gap driven by Austin's low-scoring home matches and San Diego's poor away scoring.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Austin conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while San Diego conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while San Diego have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while San Diego have averaged 3.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while San Diego have averaged 4.8 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Austin within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Austin's home form has been built on draws rather than wins, while San Diego arrive with a leaky recent record but a stronger season-long scoring profile. The market prices Austin as a narrow favourite at 39% to win, with San Diego at 35%, yet the totals market leans slightly under at 51% for under 3.0 goals. Our model puts the over at just 29%, well below the market's 49%, a gap driven by Austin's low-scoring home matches and San Diego's poor away scoring. The key uncertainty is whether San Diego's recent defensive collapse, 14 goals conceded in their last six, outweighs Austin's inability to turn home draws into wins.