Colorado vs Minnesota — MLS 2026
Colorado: 2 yellow cards, 1 red card
CARDSMinnesota: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:57 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Colorado sit 14th with 37 points, eleven clear of Minnesota in 25th on 30. The home side's record at home is 9 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, while Minnesota's away record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses.
Colorado
MinnesotaScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Minnesota's away attack is the more dangerous, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Colorado's 1.9 at home, but the visitors' figure is clearly better than the league average for away sides while Colorado's is level with it. Colorado's home scoring is in line with the league, while Minnesota's away scoring is clearly above it.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Colorado's home defence is the standout, conceding 0.9 goals per home match against Minnesota's 2.4 away, a large edge to the home side. Colorado's figure is clearly better than the league average for home sides, while Minnesota's is clearly worse than the away average.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Colorado are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 21% of their goals there, while Minnesota peak earlier, with 29% of their goals between minutes 61 and 75. Minnesota also concede 24% of their goals in the 16-30 minute window, their most vulnerable spell.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Minnesota's matches produce far more goals, with 64% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season against Colorado's 46%. On the road, Minnesota's over 2.5 rate jumps to 86%, while Colorado's home matches stay under at 36%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
Our model prices the over 3 goals at 55%, while the market's implied probability is 48%. That leaves our read about 7 percentage points above the market's, a modest edge toward goals.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge plus 5.1 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 6.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 60%, edge plus 1.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 38%, edge plus 4.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 20%, edge plus 11.9 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Colorado lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Minnesota have averaged 0.2 cards.
In the last 10 matches of the MLS, Colorado conceded on average 1.4 goals per match while Minnesota conceded on average 2.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Minnesota have averaged 4.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Minnesota within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Minnesota have averaged 2.2 cards.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Colorado sit 14th with 37 points, eleven clear of Minnesota in 25th on 30. The home side's record at home is 9 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, while Minnesota's away record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses.
ColoradoMinnesotaHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Minnesota have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 10 meetings to Colorado's 3, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting, in May 2026, went Colorado's way 1-0.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Minnesota's away attack is the more dangerous, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Colorado's 1.9 at home, but the visitors' figure is clearly better than the league average for away sides while Colorado's is level with it. Colorado's home scoring is in line with the league, while Minnesota's away scoring is clearly above it.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Colorado's home defence is the standout, conceding 0.9 goals per home match against Minnesota's 2.4 away, a large edge to the home side. Colorado's figure is clearly better than the league average for home sides, while Minnesota's is clearly worse than the away average.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Colorado are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 21% of their goals there, while Minnesota peak earlier, with 29% of their goals between minutes 61 and 75. Minnesota also concede 24% of their goals in the 16-30 minute window, their most vulnerable spell.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Minnesota's matches produce far more goals, with 64% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season against Colorado's 46%. On the road, Minnesota's over 2.5 rate jumps to 86%, while Colorado's home matches stay under at 36%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
Our model prices the over 3 goals at 55%, while the market's implied probability is 48%. That leaves our read about 7 percentage points above the market's, a modest edge toward goals.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge plus 5.1 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 6.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 60%, edge plus 1.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 38%, edge plus 4.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 20%, edge plus 11.9 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Colorado lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Minnesota have averaged 0.2 cards.
In the last 10 matches of the MLS, Colorado conceded on average 1.4 goals per match while Minnesota conceded on average 2.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Minnesota have averaged 4.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Minnesota within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Colorado have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Minnesota have averaged 2.2 cards.
About The Match
Colorado's home form and Minnesota's away fragility shape this match, but the visitors' attack is the sharper edge. Colorado have won 9 of 14 at home and concede just 0.9 goals per home match, while Minnesota have lost 7 of 14 on the road and concede 2.4 away. The market prices Colorado at 46% to win, but our model sees the total going over 3 goals at 55%, above the market's 48%. The key uncertainty is whether Minnesota's second-half scoring can overcome a defence that has kept 7 home clean sheets.