Chicago vs Philadelphia — MLS 2026
Chicago: 3 yellow cards, 1 red card
CARDSPhiladelphia: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:45 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Chicago sit 4th with 48 points, six clear of 11th-placed Philadelphia on 42. Philadelphia's away record is the more fragile of the two, with five wins and seven losses on the road, while Chicago have won nine of fourteen at home.
Chicago
PhiladelphiaScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Philadelphia hold a large attacking edge, scoring 2.2 goals per away match against a league average of 1.4 for away sides, while Chicago's 1.9 at home is level with the home-side norm. Philadelphia's recent away form is even stronger, with 3.2 goals per match across their last five on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Chicago's home defence is the stronger unit, conceding 1.1 goals per home match against a league average of 1.4, while Philadelphia concede 2.2 away, worse than the 1.84 away-side norm. Chicago have kept four home clean sheets this season.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute window, with Philadelphia scoring 29% of their goals there and Chicago 22%. Philadelphia are also heavily second-half scorers, with 68% of their goals after the break, while Chicago concede 33% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Philadelphia's matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 57% of their away matches going over 3.5 goals compared to 29% of Chicago's home matches. Philadelphia's away matches average 4.43 combined goals, well above Chicago's 3.07 at home.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 53%.
The market prices the over 3.5 goals line at 47%, while our model puts it at 43%. Our read sits about 5 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the season record sees slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 2.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge plus 10.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 47%, edge minus 4.6 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge plus 0.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Chicago have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 0.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Chicago conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Philadelphia conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 15 MLS matches, Chicago have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 5.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Chicago have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 2.4 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Philadelphia within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 16 months, Chicago and Philadelphia have faced each other 5 times, with Philadelphia winning 3 times.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Chicago sit 4th with 48 points, six clear of 11th-placed Philadelphia on 42. Philadelphia's away record is the more fragile of the two, with five wins and seven losses on the road, while Chicago have won nine of fourteen at home.
ChicagoPhiladelphiaHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Philadelphia have won five of the last ten meetings to Chicago's two, with three draws, and the goal difference across those matches is 23-13 in Philadelphia's favour. The most recent meeting, in March 2026, went to Chicago 2-1.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Philadelphia hold a large attacking edge, scoring 2.2 goals per away match against a league average of 1.4 for away sides, while Chicago's 1.9 at home is level with the home-side norm. Philadelphia's recent away form is even stronger, with 3.2 goals per match across their last five on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Chicago's home defence is the stronger unit, conceding 1.1 goals per home match against a league average of 1.4, while Philadelphia concede 2.2 away, worse than the 1.84 away-side norm. Chicago have kept four home clean sheets this season.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute window, with Philadelphia scoring 29% of their goals there and Chicago 22%. Philadelphia are also heavily second-half scorers, with 68% of their goals after the break, while Chicago concede 33% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Philadelphia's matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 57% of their away matches going over 3.5 goals compared to 29% of Chicago's home matches. Philadelphia's away matches average 4.43 combined goals, well above Chicago's 3.07 at home.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 53%.
The market prices the over 3.5 goals line at 47%, while our model puts it at 43%. Our read sits about 5 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the season record sees slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 2.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge plus 10.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 47%, edge minus 4.6 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge plus 0.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Chicago have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 0.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Chicago conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Philadelphia conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 15 MLS matches, Chicago have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 5.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Chicago have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Philadelphia have averaged 2.4 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Philadelphia within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 16 months, Chicago and Philadelphia have faced each other 5 times, with Philadelphia winning 3 times.
About The Match
Philadelphia arrive on a six-match winning streak and carry a large attacking edge on the road, while Chicago's home defence is the one unit that can slow them. The visitors score 2.2 goals per away match against a Chicago side conceding just 1.1 at home, the clearest contrast in this fixture. The key uncertainty is whether Philadelphia's second-half scoring, 68% of their goals, can break down a Chicago defence that has kept four home clean sheets.