LAFC vs Austin — MLS 2026
LAFC: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSAustin: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:59 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
LAFC sit 12th with 41 points, comfortably ahead of Austin's 24th place and 31 points, and the gap widens at home. LAFC have won 8 of 13 home matches with a +14 goal difference, while Austin have managed just 3 wins from 14 away matches with a -16 goal difference.
LAFC
AustinScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
LAFC's home attack is only marginally ahead of Austin's on the road, scoring 1.9 goals per home match to Austin's 1.1 away. LAFC sit level with the league average for a home side, while Austin are worse than the average away side, so the edge is real but narrow.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LAFC's home defence is the standout unit in this fixture, conceding 0.8 goals per home match against Austin's 2.3 away, a large edge in LAFC's favour. LAFC are clearly better than the league average for a home side, while Austin are clearly worse than the average away side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Austin are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 43% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, while LAFC's peak scoring window is the 31st to 45th minute at 23%. Austin are also most vulnerable late, conceding 40% of their goals in the same final 15 minutes, so the closing stages could be the most volatile period.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Austin's matches have been far more open than LAFC's, with 67.86% of their matches going over 2.5 goals against LAFC's 50%, and on the road that rises to 85.71%. LAFC's home matches have stayed under 2.5 goals 53.85% of the time, while Austin's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of cases.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market is priced at 3.0, and our model puts the over at 58% against the market's 50%, an edge of about 8 percentage points toward goals. Our read is that LAFC's home matches have been tighter than Austin's away matches, but Austin's away games have been so open that the combined record points to more goals than the market is pricing.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge minus 2.9 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 77%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 4.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 66%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge plus 4.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 41%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge plus 1.7 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 22%, bookmaker correct-score price 21%, edge plus 1.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
LAFC have conceded a total of only 11 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 3 MLS matches, LAFC have been awarded an average of 6 corners per match, while Austin have averaged 3.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LAFC have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Austin have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Austin within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LAFC have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Austin have averaged 1.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, LAFC conceded on average 2 goals per match while Austin conceded on average 1.3 goals per match.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
LAFC sit 12th with 41 points, comfortably ahead of Austin's 24th place and 31 points, and the gap widens at home. LAFC have won 8 of 13 home matches with a +14 goal difference, while Austin have managed just 3 wins from 14 away matches with a -16 goal difference.
LAFCAustinScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
LAFC's home attack is only marginally ahead of Austin's on the road, scoring 1.9 goals per home match to Austin's 1.1 away. LAFC sit level with the league average for a home side, while Austin are worse than the average away side, so the edge is real but narrow.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LAFC's home defence is the standout unit in this fixture, conceding 0.8 goals per home match against Austin's 2.3 away, a large edge in LAFC's favour. LAFC are clearly better than the league average for a home side, while Austin are clearly worse than the average away side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Austin are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 43% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, while LAFC's peak scoring window is the 31st to 45th minute at 23%. Austin are also most vulnerable late, conceding 40% of their goals in the same final 15 minutes, so the closing stages could be the most volatile period.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Austin's matches have been far more open than LAFC's, with 67.86% of their matches going over 2.5 goals against LAFC's 50%, and on the road that rises to 85.71%. LAFC's home matches have stayed under 2.5 goals 53.85% of the time, while Austin's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of cases.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market is priced at 3.0, and our model puts the over at 58% against the market's 50%, an edge of about 8 percentage points toward goals. Our read is that LAFC's home matches have been tighter than Austin's away matches, but Austin's away games have been so open that the combined record points to more goals than the market is pricing.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge minus 2.9 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 77%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 4.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 66%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge plus 4.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 41%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge plus 1.7 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 22%, bookmaker correct-score price 21%, edge plus 1.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
LAFC have conceded a total of only 11 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 3 MLS matches, LAFC have been awarded an average of 6 corners per match, while Austin have averaged 3.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LAFC have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Austin have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Austin within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LAFC have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Austin have averaged 1.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, LAFC conceded on average 2 goals per match while Austin conceded on average 1.3 goals per match.
About The Match
LAFC's home strength meets an Austin side that has been far more open on the road, and the totals market sits right at the season's pivot point. LAFC have conceded only 0.8 goals per home match while Austin have shipped 2.3 per away match, the widest defensive gap on the board. The market prices the total at 3.0 goals, and our model puts the over at 58% against the market's 50%, a modest edge toward goals. The key uncertainty is whether Austin's late-match vulnerability, 40% of their conceded goals come in the final 15 minutes, can be exploited by a LAFC attack that has been steady but not explosive at home.