Saint Louis vs Vancouver — MLS 2026
Saint Louis: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Vancouver: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Vancouver sit higher in the table, 2nd to Saint Louis's 5th, and hold a narrow points edge at 50 to 47. The venue split is where Saint Louis close the gap: 8 wins and 3 draws from 13 home matches against Vancouver's 6 wins and 3 draws from 12 away, leaving the home side with the stronger record in this specific setting.
Saint Louis
VancouverScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Vancouver carry the clearer attacking edge into this match, scoring 2.1 goals per away match against Saint Louis's 2.2 at home, and Vancouver's figure sits well above the league's away-side average while Saint Louis's is only marginally above the home norm. Vancouver's all-venues scoring rate of 2.2 per match is also clearly better than the league average, so their threat is not just a road phenomenon.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Vancouver are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.2 goals per away match against Saint Louis's 1.3 at home, and Vancouver's figure is clearly better than the league's away-side average while Saint Louis's is level with the home norm. Vancouver also keep clean sheets far more often, 33% of away matches to Saint Louis's 15% at home, which tilts the defensive edge their way.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Saint Louis are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 23% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, while Vancouver peak earlier with 22% in the 16-30 minute band. Defensively, Saint Louis are most vulnerable late, conceding 31% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Vancouver's softest period is the 31-45 minute window where they concede 31%.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with 55.56% of Saint Louis's matches and 62.96% of Vancouver's going over 2.5 goals across the whole season. The venue splits are similar, 69.23% for Saint Louis at home and 58.33% for Vancouver away, and both sides have been even hotter recently with 100% and 80% of their last five matches clearing that line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 49%; the bookmaker gives it 47%.
Our model and the market are close on the 3.25 total, with our read at 49.5% for the over against the market's 47.2%. The edge is about 2.3 percentage points in favour of the over, a marginal difference that does not separate the two views meaningfully.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge no edge
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 84%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge plus 0.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 44%, bookmaker correct-score price 42%, edge plus 1.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge plus 8.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have been awarded an average of 3.8 corners per match, while Vancouver have averaged 7 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Vancouver have averaged 0.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.4 cards per match, while Vancouver have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Vancouver within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Saint Louis conceded on average 1 goals per match while Vancouver conceded on average 2 goals per match.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Vancouver sit higher in the table, 2nd to Saint Louis's 5th, and hold a narrow points edge at 50 to 47. The venue split is where Saint Louis close the gap: 8 wins and 3 draws from 13 home matches against Vancouver's 6 wins and 3 draws from 12 away, leaving the home side with the stronger record in this specific setting.
Saint LouisVancouverHead-to-Head · LAST 8 MEETINGS
Vancouver have had the better of this fixture overall, winning 4 of the 8 meetings to Saint Louis's 2 with 2 draws, and they have scored 16 goals to Saint Louis's 12. The most recent meeting went Saint Louis's way, a 3-1 away win in September, but the wider pattern across these meetings favours the visitors.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Vancouver carry the clearer attacking edge into this match, scoring 2.1 goals per away match against Saint Louis's 2.2 at home, and Vancouver's figure sits well above the league's away-side average while Saint Louis's is only marginally above the home norm. Vancouver's all-venues scoring rate of 2.2 per match is also clearly better than the league average, so their threat is not just a road phenomenon.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Vancouver are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.2 goals per away match against Saint Louis's 1.3 at home, and Vancouver's figure is clearly better than the league's away-side average while Saint Louis's is level with the home norm. Vancouver also keep clean sheets far more often, 33% of away matches to Saint Louis's 15% at home, which tilts the defensive edge their way.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Saint Louis are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 23% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, while Vancouver peak earlier with 22% in the 16-30 minute band. Defensively, Saint Louis are most vulnerable late, conceding 31% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Vancouver's softest period is the 31-45 minute window where they concede 31%.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with 55.56% of Saint Louis's matches and 62.96% of Vancouver's going over 2.5 goals across the whole season. The venue splits are similar, 69.23% for Saint Louis at home and 58.33% for Vancouver away, and both sides have been even hotter recently with 100% and 80% of their last five matches clearing that line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 49%; the bookmaker gives it 47%.
Our model and the market are close on the 3.25 total, with our read at 49.5% for the over against the market's 47.2%. The edge is about 2.3 percentage points in favour of the over, a marginal difference that does not separate the two views meaningfully.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge no edge
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 84%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge plus 0.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 44%, bookmaker correct-score price 42%, edge plus 1.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge plus 8.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have been awarded an average of 3.8 corners per match, while Vancouver have averaged 7 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Vancouver have averaged 0.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.4 cards per match, while Vancouver have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Vancouver within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Saint Louis conceded on average 1 goals per match while Vancouver conceded on average 2 goals per match.
About The Match
Vancouver arrive as the market's narrow favourite and with the better underlying numbers, but Saint Louis's current form is the strongest signal on the page. Saint Louis have taken 14 points from their last six matches to Vancouver's 8, and they are unbeaten in that run while Vancouver have gone three without a win. The key uncertainty is whether Saint Louis's second-half defensive wobble, they concede 72% of their goals after the break, can be exploited by a Vancouver side that has scored more goals than anyone in this fixture's recent history.