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Nashville vs Kansas City — MLS 2026

THU, OCT 15Geodis Park
Nashville
4 – 0Half-time 3 – 0Full time
Kansas City
Nashville: H. Mukhtar
10'
Nashville: S. Surridge
17'
Nashville: A. Najar
29'
Nashville: W. Madrigal
90+5' (Pen)

Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.

Standings & Form · MLS 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Nashville sit 1st with 63 points while Kansas City are 30th with 22, a gap of 41 points. At home Nashville are unbeaten with 13 wins and a +29 goal difference, while Kansas City have lost 11 of 14 away with a -25 goal difference.

Nashville
Last 6 · all comps
Kansas City
Last 6 · all comps
NSH68%Win Rate21%SKC
NSH11%Loss Rate64%SKC

Head-to-Head · LAST 5 MEETINGS

2
SKC wins
0
draws
3
NSH wins

Nashville have won 3 of the last 5 meetings with Kansas City, who have won 2, and there have been no draws. The most recent meeting was in January 2024, outside this competition, and Nashville won it 2-1.

Scoring Profile

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Attack

Nashville's home attack is far more dangerous, scoring 2.9 goals per home match against Kansas City's 1.0 away. Nashville are well above the league average for a home side, while Kansas City are clearly below the away average.

All venues
Home/AwayNSH home · SKC away

Goals Scored · Season

NSH2.11.2SKC
NSH2.91.0SKC

Failed to Score · Season

NSH18%32%SKC
NSH0%43%SKC

Attacking Share · Season

NSH73%34%SKC
NSH77%26%SKC

Goals Scored · Last 5

NSH2.42.4SKC
NSH3.21.4SKC

Failed to Score · Last 5

NSH0%0%SKC
NSH0%20%SKC

Goals & Timing

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Nashville are most dangerous late, scoring 25% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90, while Kansas City peak before half-time with 26% between minutes 31 and 45. Kansas City are equally vulnerable in two windows, conceding 22% of their goals in each of the 31-45 and 61-75 minute bands.

NashvilleKansas City
11%
18%
16%
16%
13%
25%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
9%
20%
26%
11%
23%
11%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
NSH50%1st Half Lead %25%SKC
NSH46%2nd Half Lead %46%SKC

Goal Lines · Season 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

NSH ■SKC ■· Share of each team's matches over the line

Nashville's home matches are high-scoring, with 79% going over 2.5 goals, while Kansas City's away matches go over 2.5 goals 86% of the time. Both teams have failed to score in under half their matches, but Kansas City are far more likely to be shut out, failing to score in 43% of away matches.

NSH89%Over 0.5100%SKC
NSH68%Over 1.596%SKC
NSH61%Over 2.579%SKC
NSH43%Over 3.546%SKC
NSH25%Over 4.525%SKC
NSH4%Over 5.514%SKC
2.89Combined Goals / G · FT · Season3.68

Betting Angles

Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5

Where we differ from the bookmaker
over 3.5 goals+2.7
Model 54% · bookmaker 51%Pts of edge
Chance of over 3.5 goals
Our model, over 3.5 goals
54%
Bookmaker, over 3.5 goals
51%

The total goals market is set at 3.5. Our model gives the over a 53.6% chance, while the market prices it at 50.8%, leaving our read about 2.8 percentage points higher.

Chance of over · line by lineEdge · pts
  • Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 2.7 points
  • Over 1.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 88%, edge plus 4.6 points
  • Over 2.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 72%, edge plus 10.6 points
  • Over 3.5 goals: our model 54%, bookmaker correct-score price 51%, edge plus 2.7 points
  • Over 4.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 32%, edge plus 4.2 points

Statistical insight only · not advice

Match Trends · Data-provider insights

  1. Kansas City have conceded a total of 68 goals, which is the most in the MLS this season.

  2. Nashville have conceded a total of only 22 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.

  3. In their last 10 MLS matches, Nashville have been awarded an average of 6.8 corners per match, while Kansas City have averaged 4.1 corners.

  4. In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Kansas City have averaged 2 cards.

  5. Kansas City have been struggling lately. They lost 10 of their last 15 matches of the MLS.

  6. In the last 25 matches of the MLS, Nashville conceded on average 0.8 goals per match while Kansas City conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.

  7. Nashville blocks 77% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.

  8. In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Kansas City have averaged 1 card.

  9. Chances are good to see a goal from Nashville within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.

About The Match

This is a meeting of the league's best home team and its worst away side, and the numbers point to a one-sided contest. Nashville are unbeaten at home with 13 wins and a +29 goal difference, while Kansas City have lost 11 of 14 on the road and concede nearly three goals per away match. The market prices Nashville at 76% to win, and the totals market sits at 3.5 goals with our model slightly favouring the over. The key uncertainty is whether Kansas City's recent scoring form, 15 goals in their last six, can trouble a Nashville defence that has kept three clean sheets in five home matches.