Salt Lake vs San Jose — MLS 2026
Salt Lake: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
CARDSSan Jose: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:58 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Jose's 8th place and 46 points dwarf Salt Lake's 21st and 32, and the away side's record on the road is far stronger than Salt Lake's at home. San Jose have won 7 and lost only 3 of 14 away matches, while Salt Lake have won 8 and lost 4 at home, leaving the visitors with a clear edge in this fixture.
Salt Lake
San JoseScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
San Jose's away attack is clearly better than the league average, scoring 1.8 goals per away match against a baseline of 1.4, while Salt Lake's home attack is level with the league at 1.9. San Jose hold a clear attacking edge, and their away scoring rate is nearly identical to Salt Lake's home rate despite the harder venue.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
San Jose's away defence is clearly better than the league average, conceding 1.3 goals per away match against a baseline of 1.84, while Salt Lake's home defence is level at 1.4. The visitors hold a clear defensive edge, giving up fewer goals on the road than Salt Lake do at home.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Jose are most dangerous early, scoring 24% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, while Salt Lake are equally dangerous in the 16-30 and 76-90 windows, each with 22%. San Jose's early threat could set the tone, but Salt Lake's late scoring is a real counter.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Salt Lake's matches at home have gone over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of cases, while San Jose's away matches have done so in 50%, so the home venue leans toward higher totals. Both teams score in 60% of their combined recent meetings, and Salt Lake have failed to score in 21.43% of home matches.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 55%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
Our model puts the probability of over 3.25 goals at 44.6%, while the market prices it at 49%. That leaves our read about 4.3 percentage points below the market's, a modest difference that points to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 0.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 86%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge plus 0.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 65%, edge minus 4.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 39%, bookmaker correct-score price 44%, edge minus 4.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 25%, bookmaker correct-score price 25%, edge no edge
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Salt Lake have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while San Jose have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Salt Lake have been awarded an average of 3.3 corners per match, while San Jose have averaged 8.3 corners.
Draw seems to be a common result for San Jose lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Salt Lake have received an average of 2 cards per match, while San Jose have averaged 3.2 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Salt Lake conceded on average 1.8 goals per match while San Jose conceded on average 1.2 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from San Jose within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Jose's 8th place and 46 points dwarf Salt Lake's 21st and 32, and the away side's record on the road is far stronger than Salt Lake's at home. San Jose have won 7 and lost only 3 of 14 away matches, while Salt Lake have won 8 and lost 4 at home, leaving the visitors with a clear edge in this fixture.
Salt LakeSan JoseHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
The recent head-to-head is close, with Salt Lake winning 5 of the last 10 meetings and San Jose 4, but the visitors have the edge in goals, 19 to 18. At this ground, Salt Lake have won 3 of 5 meetings, though San Jose have won the other 2, so the venue record is split.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
San Jose's away attack is clearly better than the league average, scoring 1.8 goals per away match against a baseline of 1.4, while Salt Lake's home attack is level with the league at 1.9. San Jose hold a clear attacking edge, and their away scoring rate is nearly identical to Salt Lake's home rate despite the harder venue.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
San Jose's away defence is clearly better than the league average, conceding 1.3 goals per away match against a baseline of 1.84, while Salt Lake's home defence is level at 1.4. The visitors hold a clear defensive edge, giving up fewer goals on the road than Salt Lake do at home.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Jose are most dangerous early, scoring 24% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, while Salt Lake are equally dangerous in the 16-30 and 76-90 windows, each with 22%. San Jose's early threat could set the tone, but Salt Lake's late scoring is a real counter.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Salt Lake's matches at home have gone over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of cases, while San Jose's away matches have done so in 50%, so the home venue leans toward higher totals. Both teams score in 60% of their combined recent meetings, and Salt Lake have failed to score in 21.43% of home matches.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 55%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
Our model puts the probability of over 3.25 goals at 44.6%, while the market prices it at 49%. That leaves our read about 4.3 percentage points below the market's, a modest difference that points to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 0.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 86%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge plus 0.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 65%, edge minus 4.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 39%, bookmaker correct-score price 44%, edge minus 4.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 25%, bookmaker correct-score price 25%, edge no edge
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Salt Lake have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while San Jose have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Salt Lake have been awarded an average of 3.3 corners per match, while San Jose have averaged 8.3 corners.
Draw seems to be a common result for San Jose lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Salt Lake have received an average of 2 cards per match, while San Jose have averaged 3.2 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Salt Lake conceded on average 1.8 goals per match while San Jose conceded on average 1.2 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from San Jose within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
San Jose arrive as the better side by almost every measure, but the market still prices Salt Lake as narrow favourites at home. The visitors sit 13 places higher, are unbeaten in their last six league matches, and hold clear edges in both attack and defence at the venue each will play. The key uncertainty is whether Salt Lake's home form, which has produced 1.9 goals per match, can overcome a San Jose side that concedes just 1.3 per away match.