LA Galaxy vs Portland — MLS 2026
LA Galaxy: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSPortland: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:58 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
LA Galaxy sit 18th with 36 points, just ahead of Portland in 19th on 33, and the home side's record at this venue is the more reliable of the two. LA Galaxy have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 4 at home with a level goal difference, while Portland have managed only 2 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats on the road with a goal difference of -9.
LA Galaxy
PortlandScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Portland hold a clear attacking edge for this fixture, scoring 1.4 goals per away match to LA Galaxy's 1.3 at home, and that gap is meaningful because the away side's figure is level with the league average for a road team while LA Galaxy's is clearly worse than the home-side norm. LA Galaxy's home attack is the weaker of the two, sitting below the league's home-side average of 1.84, while Portland's away scoring matches the league's away-side average of 1.4 exactly.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LA Galaxy hold a marginal defensive edge, conceding 1.3 goals per home match to Portland's 2.1 away, and the home side's figure is level with the league average for a home team while Portland's is worse than the away-side norm. Portland's away defence is the more vulnerable of the two, conceding more than the league's away-side average of 1.84, while LA Galaxy's home defence sits right on the league's home-side average of 1.4.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with LA Galaxy scoring 30% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90 and Portland 25% in the same window, so a late goal is a live possibility. Portland are also vulnerable late, conceding 20% of their goals in that final period, but that share is level with three other 15-minute bands, so their late weakness is not a single peak.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Portland's matches have been the higher-scoring this season, with 75% of their games going over 2.5 goals compared to 64% for LA Galaxy, and the visitors' away matches average 3.5 combined goals to LA Galaxy's 2.57 at home. The home side's matches are more controlled at this venue, with only 57% of their home games going over 2.5, while Portland's away matches have gone over 2.5 in 64% of cases.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 71%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market prices over 3.5 goals at 48%, while our model puts the probability at 29%, a difference of about 20 percentage points. Our read, built from both teams' season goal records at their respective venues, sits well below the market's implied probability, suggesting the market expects a higher-scoring match than the season data supports.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 0.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 5.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 69%, edge minus 8.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 48%, edge minus 19.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 18%, bookmaker correct-score price 29%, edge minus 11.1 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have received an average of 1 card per match, while Portland have averaged 1 card.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Portland have averaged 0.6 cards.
LA Galaxy seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 3 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have been awarded an average of 6.3 corners per match, while Portland have averaged 5 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, LA Galaxy conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Portland conceded on average 2.3 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from LA Galaxy within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
LA Galaxy sit 18th with 36 points, just ahead of Portland in 19th on 33, and the home side's record at this venue is the more reliable of the two. LA Galaxy have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 4 at home with a level goal difference, while Portland have managed only 2 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats on the road with a goal difference of -9.
LA GalaxyPortlandScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Portland hold a clear attacking edge for this fixture, scoring 1.4 goals per away match to LA Galaxy's 1.3 at home, and that gap is meaningful because the away side's figure is level with the league average for a road team while LA Galaxy's is clearly worse than the home-side norm. LA Galaxy's home attack is the weaker of the two, sitting below the league's home-side average of 1.84, while Portland's away scoring matches the league's away-side average of 1.4 exactly.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LA Galaxy hold a marginal defensive edge, conceding 1.3 goals per home match to Portland's 2.1 away, and the home side's figure is level with the league average for a home team while Portland's is worse than the away-side norm. Portland's away defence is the more vulnerable of the two, conceding more than the league's away-side average of 1.84, while LA Galaxy's home defence sits right on the league's home-side average of 1.4.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with LA Galaxy scoring 30% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90 and Portland 25% in the same window, so a late goal is a live possibility. Portland are also vulnerable late, conceding 20% of their goals in that final period, but that share is level with three other 15-minute bands, so their late weakness is not a single peak.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Portland's matches have been the higher-scoring this season, with 75% of their games going over 2.5 goals compared to 64% for LA Galaxy, and the visitors' away matches average 3.5 combined goals to LA Galaxy's 2.57 at home. The home side's matches are more controlled at this venue, with only 57% of their home games going over 2.5, while Portland's away matches have gone over 2.5 in 64% of cases.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 71%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market prices over 3.5 goals at 48%, while our model puts the probability at 29%, a difference of about 20 percentage points. Our read, built from both teams' season goal records at their respective venues, sits well below the market's implied probability, suggesting the market expects a higher-scoring match than the season data supports.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 0.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 5.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 61%, bookmaker correct-score price 69%, edge minus 8.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 48%, edge minus 19.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 18%, bookmaker correct-score price 29%, edge minus 11.1 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have received an average of 1 card per match, while Portland have averaged 1 card.
In their last 5 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Portland have averaged 0.6 cards.
LA Galaxy seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 3 MLS matches, LA Galaxy have been awarded an average of 6.3 corners per match, while Portland have averaged 5 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, LA Galaxy conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Portland conceded on average 2.3 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from LA Galaxy within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
LA Galaxy host Portland in a meeting of two sides separated by a single place and three points, but the sharper contrast is in how each team travels. LA Galaxy are unbeaten in their last five home matches, while Portland arrive winless in their last five away, and that venue split is the clearest signal in the fixture. The market prices the home side as a moderate favourite at 51%, yet the totals market leans under 3.5 goals at 52%, a line our own season model sits well below. The key uncertainty is whether Portland's away fragility, 2.1 goals conceded per away match, outweighs their overall attacking edge, which has them scoring 1.4 per away match to LA Galaxy's 1.3 at home.