San Diego vs Houston — MLS 2026
San Diego: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSHouston: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Houston's league position is the more impressive of the two, sitting 10th with 45 points to San Diego's 22nd and 32, but the venue split narrows the gap considerably: San Diego's home record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses with a +8 goal difference is far stronger than Houston's away return of 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses with a -3 goal difference. The home side's season has been built at this ground, and that is the version of San Diego this fixture is likely to see.
San Diego
HoustonScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
San Diego hold a clear attacking edge at home, scoring 2.3 goals per match against a league home-side average of 1.84, while Houston's 1.4 on the road is exactly level with the away-side norm. The gap between the two attacks is the largest single edge in this fixture, and it is driven by San Diego's home form rather than any weakness in Houston's away scoring.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston's away defence is the more reliable unit, conceding 1.6 goals per match on the road against a league away-side average of 1.84, while San Diego's 1.7 at home is marginally worse than the 1.4 home-side norm. The defensive edge is clear for Houston, and it is the main reason this fixture looks tighter than the home side's attacking numbers alone would suggest.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Diego are most dangerous in the 46-60 minute window, scoring 25% of their goals there, while Houston peak earlier, with 28% of their goals coming in the 31-45 minute spell. Both teams are also most vulnerable late: San Diego concede 25% of their goals in the 76-90 minute band and Houston 32%, so the closing stages are where this match is most likely to open up.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Diego's home matches are the higher-scoring environment by a wide margin, with 85.71% of their home games going over 2.5 goals against 42.86% for Houston on the road. The home side's matches also skew later, with 57.14% of their home games seeing over 1.5 second-half goals, while Houston's away matches are more evenly split across the halves.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
Our model prices the over on the 3.0 total at 58%, while the market's implied probability sits at 50%, a gap of about 8 percentage points in favour of more goals. The edge is modest but consistent with San Diego's home scoring record and the high-scoring history between these two clubs.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge plus 1.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge plus 3.7 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 46%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge plus 7.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 21%, edge plus 11.1 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for San Diego lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, San Diego conceded on average 3.4 goals per match while Houston conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Diego have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Houston have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, San Diego have been awarded an average of 3 corners per match, while Houston have averaged 5.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Diego have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Houston have averaged 0.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Houston within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Houston's league position is the more impressive of the two, sitting 10th with 45 points to San Diego's 22nd and 32, but the venue split narrows the gap considerably: San Diego's home record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses with a +8 goal difference is far stronger than Houston's away return of 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses with a -3 goal difference. The home side's season has been built at this ground, and that is the version of San Diego this fixture is likely to see.
San DiegoHoustonHead-to-Head · LAST 3 MEETINGS
The three meetings between these clubs have been high-scoring and evenly split, with Houston winning 2 and San Diego 1, and both teams scoring 7 goals across the series. The most recent meeting, in April 2026, went to Houston 1-0, and the average of 4.67 total goals per meeting points to an open, attacking history that sits comfortably with the market's 3.0 line.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
San Diego hold a clear attacking edge at home, scoring 2.3 goals per match against a league home-side average of 1.84, while Houston's 1.4 on the road is exactly level with the away-side norm. The gap between the two attacks is the largest single edge in this fixture, and it is driven by San Diego's home form rather than any weakness in Houston's away scoring.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston's away defence is the more reliable unit, conceding 1.6 goals per match on the road against a league away-side average of 1.84, while San Diego's 1.7 at home is marginally worse than the 1.4 home-side norm. The defensive edge is clear for Houston, and it is the main reason this fixture looks tighter than the home side's attacking numbers alone would suggest.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Diego are most dangerous in the 46-60 minute window, scoring 25% of their goals there, while Houston peak earlier, with 28% of their goals coming in the 31-45 minute spell. Both teams are also most vulnerable late: San Diego concede 25% of their goals in the 76-90 minute band and Houston 32%, so the closing stages are where this match is most likely to open up.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
San Diego's home matches are the higher-scoring environment by a wide margin, with 85.71% of their home games going over 2.5 goals against 42.86% for Houston on the road. The home side's matches also skew later, with 57.14% of their home games seeing over 1.5 second-half goals, while Houston's away matches are more evenly split across the halves.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
Our model prices the over on the 3.0 total at 58%, while the market's implied probability sits at 50%, a gap of about 8 percentage points in favour of more goals. The edge is modest but consistent with San Diego's home scoring record and the high-scoring history between these two clubs.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge plus 1.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 82%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge plus 3.7 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 46%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge plus 7.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 21%, edge plus 11.1 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for San Diego lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, San Diego conceded on average 3.4 goals per match while Houston conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Diego have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Houston have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, San Diego have been awarded an average of 3 corners per match, while Houston have averaged 5.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Diego have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Houston have averaged 0.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Houston within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
San Diego's season has split sharply by venue, and this match lands on the side that has kept them afloat: at home they score 2.3 goals per match and carry a positive goal difference, while Houston arrive as a solid but unspectacular away side that concedes only 1.6 per match on the road. The market sees a near coin-flip on the 3.0 total, but our whole-season model reads the over at 58%, the clearest gap between our numbers and the price anywhere in this fixture. The uncertainty is San Diego's current form: winless in seven and beaten in their last three at home, which sits awkwardly against a season-long home record that is genuinely strong.