New York vs Toronto — MLS 2026
New York: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Toronto: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:37 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York sit 17th with 36 points, six places and 3 points above Toronto in 23rd. At home New York have a 5-3-6 record, while Toronto's away form is poor at 2-3-8, giving the hosts a clear venue edge.
New York
TorontoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
New York's home attack is clearly stronger, averaging 1.6 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away, though both sit below their league baselines. New York hold a clear attacking edge, but their home rate is only marginally worse than the league average for a home side.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Toronto's away defense is the more solid unit, conceding 1.8 goals per away match, level with the league average, while New York concede 1.9 at home, clearly worse than the league's home-side average. Toronto hold a clear defensive edge.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 23% of their goals there, while Toronto are even more late-focused with 41% of their goals in the 76-90 window. Toronto also concede 24% of their goals in that same late period.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Toronto's matches have been higher-scoring overall, with 69% going over 2.5 goals compared to New York's 59%. Toronto's matches are also more back-loaded, with 59% producing over 1.5 second-half goals versus 48% for New York.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 62%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices over 3.25 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 38%, a difference of about 13 percentage points. Our read sits below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 92%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 4.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 81%, bookmaker correct-score price 86%, edge minus 4.9 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 67%, edge minus 7.9 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 33%, bookmaker correct-score price 46%, edge minus 13.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 22%, bookmaker correct-score price 27%, edge minus 5.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.2 cards.
New York have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, New York conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
New York seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 1.6 cards.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have been awarded an average of 5.8 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 4.6 corners.
New York conceded 6 less goals than Toronto in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York sit 17th with 36 points, six places and 3 points above Toronto in 23rd. At home New York have a 5-3-6 record, while Toronto's away form is poor at 2-3-8, giving the hosts a clear venue edge.
New YorkTorontoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
New York have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 meetings with 4 draws and no Toronto wins. In the 5 meetings at this ground, New York have won 4 and drawn 1, scoring 10 goals to Toronto's 1.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
New York's home attack is clearly stronger, averaging 1.6 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away, though both sit below their league baselines. New York hold a clear attacking edge, but their home rate is only marginally worse than the league average for a home side.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Toronto's away defense is the more solid unit, conceding 1.8 goals per away match, level with the league average, while New York concede 1.9 at home, clearly worse than the league's home-side average. Toronto hold a clear defensive edge.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 23% of their goals there, while Toronto are even more late-focused with 41% of their goals in the 76-90 window. Toronto also concede 24% of their goals in that same late period.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Toronto's matches have been higher-scoring overall, with 69% going over 2.5 goals compared to New York's 59%. Toronto's matches are also more back-loaded, with 59% producing over 1.5 second-half goals versus 48% for New York.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 62%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices over 3.25 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 38%, a difference of about 13 percentage points. Our read sits below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 92%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 4.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 81%, bookmaker correct-score price 86%, edge minus 4.9 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 67%, edge minus 7.9 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 33%, bookmaker correct-score price 46%, edge minus 13.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 22%, bookmaker correct-score price 27%, edge minus 5.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.2 cards.
New York have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, New York conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
New York seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 1.6 cards.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have been awarded an average of 5.8 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 4.6 corners.
New York conceded 6 less goals than Toronto in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
New York's home form gives them a clear edge over a Toronto side that has struggled badly on the road, but the visitors' late-match scoring makes them dangerous even from behind. New York have won 4 of the 5 meetings at this ground, and Toronto have lost their last 3 away matches. The key uncertainty is whether Toronto's second-half surge, where they score 41% of their goals, can overcome a defense that has conceded 1.9 goals per home match.