MLS 2026 ·
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC preview: New York host Toronto with a clear home edge
New York welcome Toronto to Sport Illustrated Stadium with both sides arriving on three days' rest and neither in convincing form. The clearest signal is the head-to-head: New York have won six of ten meetings and Toronto have never beaten them.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats.
Toronto missing two, New York at full strength
Toronto are without defender Walker Zimmerman and midfielder Nelson Palacio, both listed as injury. Zimmerman has scored 1 goal this season, 2% of the side's goals in this competition, so the absence is not a major attacking blow. New York have no unavailable players listed, which means no availability concerns to report for the home side.
Hall leads New York, Sargent and Salloi share Toronto's load
New York's attack runs through Julian Hall, who has 11 goals in 28 matches this season, 28% of the team's total. Jorge Ruvalcaba adds 8 goals, while Cade Cowell leads the side with 6 assists. Toronto's scoring is more spread out: Josh Sargent and Daniel Salloi each have 7 goals, with Salloi also contributing 7 assists. Sargent ranks 44th in the scoring chart, well behind Hall's 26th place.
New York hold the better recent record
New York have taken 9 points from their last six league matches, with three wins and three losses, while Toronto have 7 points from two wins, one draw and three losses. New York's latest result was a defeat, while Toronto drew their most recent match. Both sides have played twice in the last 14 days and each comes into this fixture on three days' rest.
New York sit higher but both are mid-table
New York are 17th with 36 points from 29 matches, while Toronto are 23rd with 33 points. At home, New York have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 6, with a goal difference of -5. Toronto's away record is weaker: 2 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, with a goal difference of -13.
New York have dominated this fixture
Across the last 10 meetings, New York have won 6 times with 4 draws, while Toronto have never won. The goal difference is 20-5 in New York's favour, and the average total goals per meeting is 2.5. In the 5 meetings at this ground, New York have won 4 and drawn 1, scoring 10 goals to Toronto's 1. Their most recent meeting, in March 2026, ended 1-1.
New York's home attack is clearly stronger
New York average 1.6 goals per home match, which is worse than the league average for a home side at home but still clearly better than Toronto's 0.8 goals per away match. Toronto's away scoring is also worse than the league average for an away side on the road, and the gap is clear. The attack edge favours New York, and it is a clear one.
Toronto's away defence is the tighter unit
Toronto concede 1.8 goals per away match, which is level with the league average for an away side on the road. New York concede 1.9 goals per home match, worse than the league average for a home side at home, and the gap is clear. The defence edge favours Toronto, and it is a clear one.
New York test the goalkeeper more often
New York average 4.76 shots on goal per match, compared with Toronto's 4.17. New York also see more of their shots blocked, at 3.0 per match against Toronto's 2.28. New York hold more possession, 52.25% to Toronto's 45.69%.
Both sides peak late, Toronto especially
New York score 23% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, their most dangerous period. Toronto are even more back-loaded, scoring 41% of their goals in that same window. Toronto also concede 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while New York concede 22% in each of the 76-90 and 46-60 windows.
Toronto's matches trend toward more goals
Across the whole season, 58.62% of New York's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while Toronto's rate is 68.97%. Toronto's matches are also more back-loaded: 58.62% of their matches have produced over 1.5 goals in the second half, compared with 48.28% for New York. New York's first-half over 1.5 rate is 48.28%, while Toronto's is 37.93%.
Our model sees fewer goals than the market
The market prices the over 3.25 goals line at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 38%. Our read sits about 13 percentage points below the market's, a clear difference that points toward the under.
New York's home edge is the decisive factor
New York's home attack is clearly stronger than Toronto's away attack, and the head-to-head record is heavily in New York's favour. Toronto's away defence is the tighter unit, but their away scoring is poor. The market favours New York, and the totals model suggests fewer goals than the market expects. Expect a match where New York control possession and create more chances, but Toronto's late scoring threat keeps them in it.