New England vs Chicago — MLS 2026
New England: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Chicago: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New England sit 6th with 49 points, just ahead of Chicago in 7th on 48, making this a near-dead heat in the table. At home New England have been strong, winning 9 of 14 with a +10 goal difference, while Chicago have managed 5 wins and 5 draws from 14 away matches for a level goal difference, so the hosts hold a clear but not overwhelming edge at their own ground.
New England
ChicagoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Chicago's away attack is marginally better than the league average at 1.7 goals per away match, while New England's home attack sits level with the league at 1.9, giving the visitors a slight edge on the road. New England's home scoring is solid but not exceptional, and Chicago's away output is the more impressive of the two against their respective baselines.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New England's home defense is the stronger unit, conceding 1.1 goals per home match against a league baseline of 1.4, while Chicago's away defense concedes 1.7 against a baseline of 1.86, which is level with the league. The hosts are marginally better at keeping it tight at home, and that gives them the defensive edge in this matchup.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New England are most dangerous late, scoring 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Chicago's peak scoring band is 61-75 minutes at 21%. Chicago are most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes, conceding 30% of their goals there against only 19% scored, which aligns with New England's strongest attacking spell.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with 72% of New England's matches and 76% of Chicago's going over 2.5 goals this season. Chicago's matches are more back-loaded, with 55% producing over 1.5 goals in the second half compared with 34% in the first, while New England's split is closer at 52% and 45%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 60%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total-goals market sets the line at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 49%. Our model puts the over at 40%, so our read sits about 8 percentage points below the market's, pointing to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 3.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge minus 2.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 65%, edge plus 3.0 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 11.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 25%, edge minus 3.3 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, New England have been awarded an average of 9.6 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 4 corners.
Chicago seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New England conceded on average 2.6 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 2.4 cards.
Chicago conceded 3 less goals than New England in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New England within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New England sit 6th with 49 points, just ahead of Chicago in 7th on 48, making this a near-dead heat in the table. At home New England have been strong, winning 9 of 14 with a +10 goal difference, while Chicago have managed 5 wins and 5 draws from 14 away matches for a level goal difference, so the hosts hold a clear but not overwhelming edge at their own ground.
New EnglandChicagoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
History between these clubs is remarkably even, with 2 wins apiece and 6 draws across their last 10 meetings, and goals nearly level at 16-15 in Chicago's favour. At New England's ground the pattern is even more draw-heavy, with 4 draws and 1 Chicago win in the 5 meetings there, so this fixture has rarely produced a decisive result.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Chicago's away attack is marginally better than the league average at 1.7 goals per away match, while New England's home attack sits level with the league at 1.9, giving the visitors a slight edge on the road. New England's home scoring is solid but not exceptional, and Chicago's away output is the more impressive of the two against their respective baselines.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New England's home defense is the stronger unit, conceding 1.1 goals per home match against a league baseline of 1.4, while Chicago's away defense concedes 1.7 against a baseline of 1.86, which is level with the league. The hosts are marginally better at keeping it tight at home, and that gives them the defensive edge in this matchup.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New England are most dangerous late, scoring 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Chicago's peak scoring band is 61-75 minutes at 21%. Chicago are most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes, conceding 30% of their goals there against only 19% scored, which aligns with New England's strongest attacking spell.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with 72% of New England's matches and 76% of Chicago's going over 2.5 goals this season. Chicago's matches are more back-loaded, with 55% producing over 1.5 goals in the second half compared with 34% in the first, while New England's split is closer at 52% and 45%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 60%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total-goals market sets the line at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 49%. Our model puts the over at 40%, so our read sits about 8 percentage points below the market's, pointing to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 3.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge minus 2.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 65%, edge plus 3.0 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 11.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 25%, edge minus 3.3 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, New England have been awarded an average of 9.6 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 4 corners.
Chicago seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New England conceded on average 2.6 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 2.4 cards.
Chicago conceded 3 less goals than New England in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New England within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
New England and Chicago arrive nearly inseparable in the table, separated by a single point, and the market reflects that with a narrow home lean. The most telling number is the total-goals model: our read sits at 40% for over 3.25 goals, about 8 points below the market's 49%, suggesting the season record points to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply. The key uncertainty is whether Chicago's leaky late-game defense, conceding 30% of their goals after the 76th minute, can hold against New England's strongest scoring window in that same stretch.