Atlanta vs Miami — MLS 2026
Atlanta: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSMiami: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:22 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami's 3rd-place standing dwarfs Atlanta's 28th, with the visitors on 52 points to the hosts' 30. Miami's away record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is far stronger than Atlanta's home record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses, and that gap in venue form is the clearest signal here.
Atlanta
MiamiScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Miami hold a large attacking edge, scoring 2.1 goals per away match against Atlanta's 1.4 at home. Miami's away rate is well above the league's 1.4 for a road side, while Atlanta's home rate is marginally below the league's 1.86 for a home side.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Miami's defence is the more reliable of the two, conceding 1.7 goals per away match to Atlanta's 1.9 at home. Miami's away figure is level with the league average for a road side, while Atlanta's home figure is clearly worse than the league's 1.4 for a home side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami are most dangerous late, scoring 27% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Atlanta's scoring is split evenly between the 31-45 and 61-75 windows at 22% each.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami's matches have been the higher-scoring ones, with 76% going over 2.5 goals against Atlanta's 62%. Atlanta's home matches are even more open, with 79% going over 2.5, while Miami's away matches sit at 50% over that line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.75
We give the under 58%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market prices the over 3.75 line at 48%, while our model puts the probability at 42%. Our read sits about 6 percentage points below the market's, a modest difference that points to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 4.5 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 89%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 73%, edge plus 1.9 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 50%, bookmaker correct-score price 53%, edge minus 3.4 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge minus 5.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, Atlanta have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Miami have averaged 2.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Miami have averaged 3 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Atlanta conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Miami conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
Miami seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.2 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Miami have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 19 months, Atlanta and Miami have faced each other 3 times, with Miami winning 2 times.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami's 3rd-place standing dwarfs Atlanta's 28th, with the visitors on 52 points to the hosts' 30. Miami's away record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is far stronger than Atlanta's home record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses, and that gap in venue form is the clearest signal here.
AtlantaMiamiHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
These sides have split their 10 meetings evenly, with 4 wins each and 2 draws, and the goals have flowed at an average of 4.1 per match. The most recent meeting, in September, ended 2-2, so history offers no clear edge for either side.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Miami hold a large attacking edge, scoring 2.1 goals per away match against Atlanta's 1.4 at home. Miami's away rate is well above the league's 1.4 for a road side, while Atlanta's home rate is marginally below the league's 1.86 for a home side.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Miami's defence is the more reliable of the two, conceding 1.7 goals per away match to Atlanta's 1.9 at home. Miami's away figure is level with the league average for a road side, while Atlanta's home figure is clearly worse than the league's 1.4 for a home side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami are most dangerous late, scoring 27% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Atlanta's scoring is split evenly between the 31-45 and 61-75 windows at 22% each.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Miami's matches have been the higher-scoring ones, with 76% going over 2.5 goals against Atlanta's 62%. Atlanta's home matches are even more open, with 79% going over 2.5, while Miami's away matches sit at 50% over that line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.75
We give the under 58%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market prices the over 3.75 line at 48%, while our model puts the probability at 42%. Our read sits about 6 percentage points below the market's, a modest difference that points to slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge minus 4.5 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 89%, edge minus 0.1 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 73%, edge plus 1.9 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 50%, bookmaker correct-score price 53%, edge minus 3.4 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 29%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge minus 5.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, Atlanta have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Miami have averaged 2.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Miami have averaged 3 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Atlanta conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Miami conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
Miami seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.2 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Miami have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 19 months, Atlanta and Miami have faced each other 3 times, with Miami winning 2 times.
About The Match
Miami arrive as the clear market favourite and the stronger side on nearly every measure, but Atlanta's home matches have a habit of producing goals. The visitors sit 3rd with 52 points while Atlanta are 28th with 30, and Miami's away attack at 2.1 goals per match is far above the league's 1.4 for a road side. The key uncertainty is whether Atlanta's leaky home defence, which concedes 1.9 per match, can keep this tight against a Miami side that has scored in every one of their last five matches.