New York City vs LAFC — MLS 2026
New York City: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
LAFC: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:44 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
LAFC sit 9 places higher in the table, holding 45 points to New York City's 33, but both sides have struggled at this venue: New York City's home record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, while LAFC's away record is 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses.
New York City
LAFCScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
New York City's home attack is marginally stronger, scoring 1.9 goals per home match against LAFC's 1.2 away, and while New York City are level with the league's home average, LAFC are slightly below the away norm.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LAFC's away defense is clearly the stronger unit, conceding 1.3 goals per away match compared to New York City's 1.5 at home, and LAFC are significantly better than the league's away average while New York City are level with the home norm.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York City are most dangerous early, scoring 26% of their goals between minutes 16-30, while LAFC peak just before halftime with 21% in the 31-45 window, and both sides are most vulnerable late, conceding heavily in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with New York City's games going over 2.5 goals in 52% of cases and LAFC's in 50%, though LAFC's matches are notably more front-loaded, with only 27% seeing over 1.5 first-half goals compared to New York City's 45%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The market prices the total at 2.75 goals with a near-even split, giving a 50% chance of over. Our model, built from each team's season goal record at their respective venues, puts the over probability at 53%, about 3 percentage points higher than the market's read.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 90%, bookmaker correct-score price 94%, edge minus 4.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 76%, bookmaker correct-score price 79%, edge minus 2.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 56%, edge plus 3.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 38%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge plus 4.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 18%, bookmaker correct-score price 17%, edge plus 0.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for LAFC lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have received an average of 1 card per match, while LAFC have averaged 2.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while LAFC have averaged 1.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have been awarded an average of 3.6 corners per match, while LAFC have averaged 6 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New York City conceded on average 2 goals per match while LAFC conceded on average 1.3 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York City within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
LAFC sit 9 places higher in the table, holding 45 points to New York City's 33, but both sides have struggled at this venue: New York City's home record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, while LAFC's away record is 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses.
New York CityLAFCHead-to-Head · LAST 6 MEETINGS
History between these two is remarkably balanced, with 1 win each and 4 draws in their 6 meetings, and both teams have scored 8 goals apiece, though their most recent meeting was a cup tie outside this competition.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
New York City's home attack is marginally stronger, scoring 1.9 goals per home match against LAFC's 1.2 away, and while New York City are level with the league's home average, LAFC are slightly below the away norm.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
LAFC's away defense is clearly the stronger unit, conceding 1.3 goals per away match compared to New York City's 1.5 at home, and LAFC are significantly better than the league's away average while New York City are level with the home norm.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
New York City are most dangerous early, scoring 26% of their goals between minutes 16-30, while LAFC peak just before halftime with 21% in the 31-45 window, and both sides are most vulnerable late, conceding heavily in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams' matches trend toward goals, with New York City's games going over 2.5 goals in 52% of cases and LAFC's in 50%, though LAFC's matches are notably more front-loaded, with only 27% seeing over 1.5 first-half goals compared to New York City's 45%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The market prices the total at 2.75 goals with a near-even split, giving a 50% chance of over. Our model, built from each team's season goal record at their respective venues, puts the over probability at 53%, about 3 percentage points higher than the market's read.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 90%, bookmaker correct-score price 94%, edge minus 4.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 76%, bookmaker correct-score price 79%, edge minus 2.8 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 56%, edge plus 3.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 38%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge plus 4.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 18%, bookmaker correct-score price 17%, edge plus 0.4 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for LAFC lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have received an average of 1 card per match, while LAFC have averaged 2.8 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while LAFC have averaged 1.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York City have been awarded an average of 3.6 corners per match, while LAFC have averaged 6 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New York City conceded on average 2 goals per match while LAFC conceded on average 1.3 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York City within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
New York City's home edge is real but narrow, while LAFC's away form is poor yet their defensive solidity stands out. The market prices this nearly even, with LAFC a slight favorite at 39% to win, but our season model sees more goals than the market, giving a 53% chance of over 2.75 total goals. The key uncertainty is whether New York City's fast-starting attack can overcome their poor recent home run against an LAFC side that has not won in six away matches.