Minnesota vs Saint Louis — MLS 2026
Minnesota: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSSaint Louis: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:22 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Saint Louis sit far higher in the table, 4th with 51 points to Minnesota's 26th with 31, and the venue records widen the gap: Minnesota have won just 2 of 14 home matches while Saint Louis have won 5 of 14 away. Saint Louis's away goal difference is +1 against Minnesota's home mark of -2, so the visitors bring the more solid platform into this fixture.
Minnesota
Saint LouisScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis hold a clear attacking edge, scoring 1.4 goals per away match to Minnesota's 1.1 at home, and while Saint Louis are level with the league's away-side average, Minnesota are clearly worse than the home-side norm. Saint Louis's away scoring is also stronger than their own season rate of 1.9 per match, so the visitors carry the more dangerous attack into this one.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Saint Louis are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.4 goals per away match to Minnesota's 1.3 at home, and the visitors are better than the league's away-side average while Minnesota are level with the home norm. The edge is marginal, but Saint Louis's recent away record of just 3 goals conceded in their last four road matches tilts this further their way.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Minnesota are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute window, scoring 27% of their goals there, while Saint Louis peak earlier with 24% of their goals in the 31-45 minute band. Defensively, Minnesota are most vulnerable in the 16-30 minute window, conceding 23% of their goals there against just 9% scored, while Saint Louis leak late, conceding 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window against 17% scored.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams produce back-loaded matches, with Minnesota's second-half over 1.5 goals rate at 58.62% and Saint Louis's at 72.41%, while their first-half rates are identical at 34.48%. Across all venues, 65.52% of Minnesota's matches have gone over 2.5 goals compared with 55.17% for Saint Louis, so the home side's matches have been the higher-scoring overall.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 66%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market is set at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48%. Our model puts the over at 34%, so our read sits about 14 percentage points below the market's, pointing to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 3.1 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge minus 6.0 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge minus 21.6 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 10.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 11%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 13.7 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Minnesota have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Minnesota conceded on average 2.6 goals per match while Saint Louis conceded on average 1 goals per match.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Minnesota have been awarded an average of 4.8 corners per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 3.5 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Minnesota have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.8 cards.
Saint Louis conceded 7 less goals than Minnesota in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Saint Louis sit far higher in the table, 4th with 51 points to Minnesota's 26th with 31, and the venue records widen the gap: Minnesota have won just 2 of 14 home matches while Saint Louis have won 5 of 14 away. Saint Louis's away goal difference is +1 against Minnesota's home mark of -2, so the visitors bring the more solid platform into this fixture.
MinnesotaSaint LouisHead-to-Head · LAST 8 MEETINGS
Minnesota have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 meetings with no draws, and they have outscored Saint Louis 19 goals to 11 across those matches. The most recent meeting went the other way, Saint Louis winning 4-2 in September, but the overall pattern still favours Minnesota.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis hold a clear attacking edge, scoring 1.4 goals per away match to Minnesota's 1.1 at home, and while Saint Louis are level with the league's away-side average, Minnesota are clearly worse than the home-side norm. Saint Louis's away scoring is also stronger than their own season rate of 1.9 per match, so the visitors carry the more dangerous attack into this one.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Saint Louis are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.4 goals per away match to Minnesota's 1.3 at home, and the visitors are better than the league's away-side average while Minnesota are level with the home norm. The edge is marginal, but Saint Louis's recent away record of just 3 goals conceded in their last four road matches tilts this further their way.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Minnesota are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute window, scoring 27% of their goals there, while Saint Louis peak earlier with 24% of their goals in the 31-45 minute band. Defensively, Minnesota are most vulnerable in the 16-30 minute window, conceding 23% of their goals there against just 9% scored, while Saint Louis leak late, conceding 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window against 17% scored.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Both teams produce back-loaded matches, with Minnesota's second-half over 1.5 goals rate at 58.62% and Saint Louis's at 72.41%, while their first-half rates are identical at 34.48%. Across all venues, 65.52% of Minnesota's matches have gone over 2.5 goals compared with 55.17% for Saint Louis, so the home side's matches have been the higher-scoring overall.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 66%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market is set at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48%. Our model puts the over at 34%, so our read sits about 14 percentage points below the market's, pointing to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 3.1 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 85%, edge minus 6.0 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge minus 21.6 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 10.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 11%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 13.7 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Minnesota have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Minnesota conceded on average 2.6 goals per match while Saint Louis conceded on average 1 goals per match.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Minnesota have been awarded an average of 4.8 corners per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 3.5 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Minnesota have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.8 cards.
Saint Louis conceded 7 less goals than Minnesota in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
About The Match
Saint Louis arrive as the far more reliable side, sitting 4th with 51 points while Minnesota are 26th with 31, and the form gap is stark: Saint Louis have taken 14 points from their last six league matches to Minnesota's 2. The market still prices this close, with Minnesota a marginal favourite at 38% to win, but the sharper signal is the total goals line at 3.25, where our model's 34% over probability sits well below the market's 48%. The key uncertainty is whether Minnesota's second-half scoring, 64% of their goals, can trouble a Saint Louis defence that has conceded just 5 goals across their last six matches.