Houston vs Cincinnati — MLS 2026
Houston: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Cincinnati: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 17, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Houston's fifth place is built on a strong home record of 8 wins and 2 losses, while Cincinnati sit 17th with just 1 away win all season. The home and away splits widen the gap: Houston average 2.17 points per home match against Cincinnati's 0.67 away, so the table flatters neither side.
Houston
CincinnatiScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's away attack is marginally more productive than Houston's at home, scoring 1.5 goals per away match against Houston's 1.2 at home. Houston's home scoring is slightly below their season average of 1.3, while Cincinnati's away rate is well below their overall 2.2, so neither attack is at full strength in this venue.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston's home defence is the strongest unit in this fixture, conceding just 0.7 goals per home match compared to Cincinnati's 2.9 away. Houston's home record is far better than their season average of 1.1 conceded, while Cincinnati's away defence is worse than their overall 2.5, making this the clearest defensive edge of the match.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Houston are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 28% of their goals between minutes 31 and 45, while Cincinnati peak late with 35% of their goals after the 76th minute. Cincinnati are also most vulnerable late, conceding 24% of their goals in the same period, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Cincinnati's matches are far more open, with 70.83% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season compared to just 36% for Houston. At this venue the gap narrows only slightly, with 75% of Cincinnati's away matches over 2.5 against 33.33% of Houston's home games, so the season-long goal environments point in opposite directions.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 58%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals with a 51% implied probability of the over, while our model puts the over at 42% for the same line. Our read sits about 9 percentage points below the market's, a measured difference that suggests the season data sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Cincinnati have conceded a total of 59 goals, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Houston have conceded a total of only 8 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Cincinnati conceded on average 4 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 3.3 corners per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 5.6 corners.
Cincinnati have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 2.2 cards.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Houston's fifth place is built on a strong home record of 8 wins and 2 losses, while Cincinnati sit 17th with just 1 away win all season. The home and away splits widen the gap: Houston average 2.17 points per home match against Cincinnati's 0.67 away, so the table flatters neither side.
HoustonCincinnatiHead-to-Head · LAST 5 MEETINGS
Cincinnati have had the better of this matchup, winning 2 of the last 5 meetings with 3 draws and no Houston wins. The most recent meeting, a cup tie, ended 1-1, and both teams scored in all five encounters, suggesting goals have flowed when these sides meet.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's away attack is marginally more productive than Houston's at home, scoring 1.5 goals per away match against Houston's 1.2 at home. Houston's home scoring is slightly below their season average of 1.3, while Cincinnati's away rate is well below their overall 2.2, so neither attack is at full strength in this venue.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston's home defence is the strongest unit in this fixture, conceding just 0.7 goals per home match compared to Cincinnati's 2.9 away. Houston's home record is far better than their season average of 1.1 conceded, while Cincinnati's away defence is worse than their overall 2.5, making this the clearest defensive edge of the match.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Houston are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 28% of their goals between minutes 31 and 45, while Cincinnati peak late with 35% of their goals after the 76th minute. Cincinnati are also most vulnerable late, conceding 24% of their goals in the same period, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Cincinnati's matches are far more open, with 70.83% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season compared to just 36% for Houston. At this venue the gap narrows only slightly, with 75% of Cincinnati's away matches over 2.5 against 33.33% of Houston's home games, so the season-long goal environments point in opposite directions.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 58%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals with a 51% implied probability of the over, while our model puts the over at 42% for the same line. Our read sits about 9 percentage points below the market's, a measured difference that suggests the season data sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Cincinnati have conceded a total of 59 goals, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Houston have conceded a total of only 8 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Cincinnati conceded on average 4 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 0.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 3.3 corners per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 5.6 corners.
Cincinnati have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 2.2 cards.
About The Match
Houston's home solidity meets Cincinnati's leaky away form in a match where the market's total and our season model disagree. Houston have conceded just 0.7 goals per home match this season, while Cincinnati have shipped 2.9 per away game, a gap that shapes the entire fixture. The market prices the total at 3.0 with a slight lean to the over, but our model puts the over at only 42%, roughly 9 points below the market. The key uncertainty is whether Cincinnati's high-scoring away matches, 75% of which have gone over 2.5 goals, can break down a Houston defence that has kept a clean sheet in half its home games.