Nashville vs Chicago — MLS 2026
Nashville: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Chicago: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 18, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Nashville's table position is built on a flawless home record, while Chicago's away form is far more modest. Nashville have taken 34 points from 12 home matches with 11 wins and no defeats, whereas Chicago have managed just 17 points from 12 away games with 4 wins and 3 losses. The gap between them is real, but it is driven by venue: Nashville's away record is ordinary, and Chicago's home form is respectable, so this fixture's location matters more than the raw table gap suggests.
Nashville
ChicagoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Attack
Nashville's home attack is the most potent in this fixture by a clear margin, while Chicago's away scoring is respectable but less explosive. Nashville average 3.0 goals per home match, compared to 1.9 for Chicago on the road. Nashville's home figure is also well above their own season average of 2.0, while Chicago's away rate is identical to their overall 1.9, so the home side's venue boost is the standout attacking signal.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's home defence is far tighter than Chicago's on the road. Nashville concede 1.0 goals per home match, while Chicago concede 1.8 away. Nashville's home rate is only slightly above their season average of 0.8, but Chicago's away figure is worse than their overall 1.5, so the visitors are the more vulnerable side here.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Nashville are most dangerous late, while Chicago peak just before the final quarter and are most vulnerable at the very end. Nashville score 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, and Chicago concede 31% of their goals in that same period. Chicago's own scoring peak is the 61-75 minute band at 24%, so the closing stages are where both attacks are most likely to strike.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
This fixture pairs two of the league's higher-scoring environments, especially at Nashville's ground. Nashville's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 83% of cases, while Chicago's away matches have done so in 75%. Both sides also score reliably, with Nashville failing to score in just 20% of all matches and Chicago in only 4%, so a low-scoring game is unlikely.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 74%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
Our model sees far more goals in this fixture than the market is pricing. The market's line is 3.0 goals, and the market-implied probability of over 3 is 52%. Our estimate for the same line is 74%, a gap of about 22 percentage points in favour of the over.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 21 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Chicago lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Nashville conceded on average 1.3 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 2.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Nashville have been awarded an average of 6.1 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 4.4 corners.
Nashville blocks 76% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Nashville within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Nashville's table position is built on a flawless home record, while Chicago's away form is far more modest. Nashville have taken 34 points from 12 home matches with 11 wins and no defeats, whereas Chicago have managed just 17 points from 12 away games with 4 wins and 3 losses. The gap between them is real, but it is driven by venue: Nashville's away record is ordinary, and Chicago's home form is respectable, so this fixture's location matters more than the raw table gap suggests.
NashvilleChicagoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Nashville have dominated this fixture overall, but Chicago won the most recent meeting. Across 10 meetings, Nashville have won 6 times to Chicago's 3, with a goal difference of 22-9. At Nashville's ground the record is even more one-sided: 4 wins and no draws in 5 meetings, with a 17-7 goal difference, so history strongly favours the home side here.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Attack
Nashville's home attack is the most potent in this fixture by a clear margin, while Chicago's away scoring is respectable but less explosive. Nashville average 3.0 goals per home match, compared to 1.9 for Chicago on the road. Nashville's home figure is also well above their own season average of 2.0, while Chicago's away rate is identical to their overall 1.9, so the home side's venue boost is the standout attacking signal.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's home defence is far tighter than Chicago's on the road. Nashville concede 1.0 goals per home match, while Chicago concede 1.8 away. Nashville's home rate is only slightly above their season average of 0.8, but Chicago's away figure is worse than their overall 1.5, so the visitors are the more vulnerable side here.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
Nashville are most dangerous late, while Chicago peak just before the final quarter and are most vulnerable at the very end. Nashville score 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, and Chicago concede 31% of their goals in that same period. Chicago's own scoring peak is the 61-75 minute band at 24%, so the closing stages are where both attacks are most likely to strike.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 18, 2026
This fixture pairs two of the league's higher-scoring environments, especially at Nashville's ground. Nashville's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 83% of cases, while Chicago's away matches have done so in 75%. Both sides also score reliably, with Nashville failing to score in just 20% of all matches and Chicago in only 4%, so a low-scoring game is unlikely.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the over 74%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
Our model sees far more goals in this fixture than the market is pricing. The market's line is 3.0 goals, and the market-implied probability of over 3 is 52%. Our estimate for the same line is 74%, a gap of about 22 percentage points in favour of the over.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 21 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Chicago lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Nashville conceded on average 1.3 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 2.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, Nashville have been awarded an average of 6.1 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 4.4 corners.
Nashville blocks 76% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Nashville have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Nashville within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Nashville arrive as the league's top side with a near-perfect home record, but their recent form has cooled and the market's total-goals line is where the real edge sits. Chicago are winless in six and defensively fragile on the road, yet they keep scoring, which keeps this match's goal environment high. Our model prices the over 3 goals at 74%, well above the market's 52%, making the totals market the clearest signal here. The key uncertainty is whether Nashville's home dominance reasserts itself after three winless games, or whether Chicago's habit of drawing on the road drags this into a tighter contest.