Saint Louis vs Toronto — MLS 2026
Saint Louis: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Toronto: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 17, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis are the stronger side by a wide margin, sitting 8th with 41 points against Toronto's 25th place and 29 points. The home/away split sharpens the gap: Saint Louis average 2.0 points per home game while Toronto manage just 0.82 on the road, so the table gap is real and not flattered by venue.
Saint Louis
TorontoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis's home attack is far more dangerous, averaging 2.1 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away. That gap of 1.3 goals per game is the largest single attacking edge in this fixture and points strongly toward the home side controlling the scoring.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Attacking Share: share of all goals in a team's matches that it scored — 50 means it scores as much as it concedes.
Defence
Saint Louis are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.3 goals per home match against Toronto's 1.6 away. The gap is modest, but Saint Louis also have a better overall defensive record, and Toronto's away defence has been leaky, conceding 18 goals in 11 away games.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Recent rows count each side's last matches in any competition — MLS matches by sample: Last 5 — STL 4 of 5, TOR 5 of 5; Last 5, Home/Away — STL 5 of 5, TOR 5 of 5.
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 24% of their goals between minutes 31-45, while Toronto peak late with 37% of their goals after the 76th minute. Both teams are most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes, conceding 29% and 24% of their goals there respectively, which could make for a lively finish.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis's home matches have been higher-scoring, with 66.67% going over 2.5 goals at home against Toronto's 63.64% away. The season-long picture is similar, with Toronto's matches averaging 3.36 total goals compared to Saint Louis's 3.08, and both teams have failed to score in just 16% of their matches overall.
Match Totals · Both Teams' Goals
Match Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 63%; the market gives it 52%.
Under is the complement
The total goals market is set at 3.25, and our model puts the probability of over that line at 37%, while the market prices it at 48%. That leaves our read about 10 percentage points below the market's, suggesting our season data points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
Sample · Saint Louis 12 home games · Toronto 11 away games this season
Sample · Saint Louis 12 home · Toronto 11 away
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker price is market-implied · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Smart Predictions
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Saint Louis conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 4.2 corners.
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.6 cards.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis are the stronger side by a wide margin, sitting 8th with 41 points against Toronto's 25th place and 29 points. The home/away split sharpens the gap: Saint Louis average 2.0 points per home game while Toronto manage just 0.82 on the road, so the table gap is real and not flattered by venue.
Saint LouisTorontoHead-to-Head · LAST 1 MEETINGS
The only previous meeting between these clubs was won by Saint Louis, a 1-0 result in Toronto in July 2023. That is a very small sample, so it offers little predictive weight for this fixture beyond a marginal historical edge to the home side.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis's home attack is far more dangerous, averaging 2.1 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away. That gap of 1.3 goals per game is the largest single attacking edge in this fixture and points strongly toward the home side controlling the scoring.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Attacking Share: share of all goals in a team's matches that it scored — 50 means it scores as much as it concedes.
Defence
Saint Louis are the more solid side defensively, conceding 1.3 goals per home match against Toronto's 1.6 away. The gap is modest, but Saint Louis also have a better overall defensive record, and Toronto's away defence has been leaky, conceding 18 goals in 11 away games.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Recent rows count each side's last matches in any competition — MLS matches by sample: Last 5 — STL 4 of 5, TOR 5 of 5; Last 5, Home/Away — STL 5 of 5, TOR 5 of 5.
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 24% of their goals between minutes 31-45, while Toronto peak late with 37% of their goals after the 76th minute. Both teams are most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes, conceding 29% and 24% of their goals there respectively, which could make for a lively finish.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Saint Louis's home matches have been higher-scoring, with 66.67% going over 2.5 goals at home against Toronto's 63.64% away. The season-long picture is similar, with Toronto's matches averaging 3.36 total goals compared to Saint Louis's 3.08, and both teams have failed to score in just 16% of their matches overall.
Match Totals · Both Teams' Goals
Match Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 63%; the market gives it 52%.
Under is the complement
The total goals market is set at 3.25, and our model puts the probability of over that line at 37%, while the market prices it at 48%. That leaves our read about 10 percentage points below the market's, suggesting our season data points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
Sample · Saint Louis 12 home games · Toronto 11 away games this season
Sample · Saint Louis 12 home · Toronto 11 away
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker price is market-implied · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Smart Predictions
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Saint Louis conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Toronto conceded on average 2.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while Toronto have averaged 4.2 corners.
Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Toronto have averaged 0.6 cards.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Toronto have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Saint Louis are the clear favourites here, and the numbers back that up: they are unbeaten in their last six league matches with 12 points from six while Toronto have lost their most recent game and sit 17 places lower in the table. The home side's edge is sharpest in attack, where Saint Louis average 2.1 goals per home match against Toronto's 0.8 away. The main uncertainty is whether Toronto's second-half scoring burst can keep this competitive, as they have scored 71% of their goals after the break.