Cincinnati vs Columbus — MLS 2026
Cincinnati: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSColumbus: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:59 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati sit 18th with 36 points, while Columbus are 25th with 32 points, a gap of four points. At home, Cincinnati have a strong 7-3-3 record with a +9 goal difference, but Columbus's away record is poor at 2-3-9 with a -8 goal difference, so the venue split favours the hosts clearly.
Cincinnati
ColumbusScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's home attack is clearly the stronger of the two, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against Columbus's 1.6 per away match, and Cincinnati's figure is well above the league's home-side average of 1.86 while Columbus's is only marginally above the away-side average of 1.4. The attack edge favours Cincinnati clearly.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Columbus hold the defensive edge, conceding 2.1 goals per away match against a league away-side average of 1.86, while Cincinnati concede 2.1 per home match against a league home-side average of 1.4, so Cincinnati's home defence is the more vulnerable of the two. Columbus's away defence is only marginally worse than the league average, while Cincinnati's is clearly worse.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 35% of their goals between minutes 76-90, while Columbus's peak scoring window is 31-45 minutes with 23% of their goals.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati's matches have been high-scoring, with 75% of their matches going over 2.5 goals and 67.86% over 3.5 goals, while Columbus's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 72.41% and over 3.5 in 37.93%. Cincinnati's matches are more likely to produce goals, particularly in the second half where 71.43% of their matches have gone over 1.5 goals.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the over 59%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices the over 3.5 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 59%, giving our read an edge of about 12 percentage points above the market's. This suggests our season-based model sees more goal-scoring potential than the market is pricing in.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 9.3 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 77%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge plus 9.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 48%, edge plus 11.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 45%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge plus 16.9 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, Cincinnati have been awarded an average of 7.3 corners per match, while Columbus have averaged 10 corners.
Columbus seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Cincinnati conceded on average 2.4 goals per match while Columbus conceded on average 1.2 goals per match.
Columbus conceded 6 less goals than Cincinnati in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Columbus have averaged 2.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Columbus have averaged 0.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 16 months, Cincinnati and Columbus have faced each other 5 times, with Columbus winning 3 times.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati sit 18th with 36 points, while Columbus are 25th with 32 points, a gap of four points. At home, Cincinnati have a strong 7-3-3 record with a +9 goal difference, but Columbus's away record is poor at 2-3-9 with a -8 goal difference, so the venue split favours the hosts clearly.
CincinnatiColumbusHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Across the last 10 meetings, Columbus have won 4 times, Cincinnati 3, with 3 draws, and Columbus have scored 18 goals to Cincinnati's 11. In the 5 meetings at Cincinnati's ground, the record is 2 wins for Cincinnati, 1 for Columbus, and 2 draws, with 7 goals each.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's home attack is clearly the stronger of the two, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against Columbus's 1.6 per away match, and Cincinnati's figure is well above the league's home-side average of 1.86 while Columbus's is only marginally above the away-side average of 1.4. The attack edge favours Cincinnati clearly.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Columbus hold the defensive edge, conceding 2.1 goals per away match against a league away-side average of 1.86, while Cincinnati concede 2.1 per home match against a league home-side average of 1.4, so Cincinnati's home defence is the more vulnerable of the two. Columbus's away defence is only marginally worse than the league average, while Cincinnati's is clearly worse.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 35% of their goals between minutes 76-90, while Columbus's peak scoring window is 31-45 minutes with 23% of their goals.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Cincinnati's matches have been high-scoring, with 75% of their matches going over 2.5 goals and 67.86% over 3.5 goals, while Columbus's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 72.41% and over 3.5 in 37.93%. Cincinnati's matches are more likely to produce goals, particularly in the second half where 71.43% of their matches have gone over 1.5 goals.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the over 59%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices the over 3.5 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 59%, giving our read an edge of about 12 percentage points above the market's. This suggests our season-based model sees more goal-scoring potential than the market is pricing in.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 9.3 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 77%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge plus 9.2 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 48%, edge plus 11.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 45%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge plus 16.9 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 3 MLS matches, Cincinnati have been awarded an average of 7.3 corners per match, while Columbus have averaged 10 corners.
Columbus seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Cincinnati conceded on average 2.4 goals per match while Columbus conceded on average 1.2 goals per match.
Columbus conceded 6 less goals than Cincinnati in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Columbus have averaged 2.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Columbus have averaged 0.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 16 months, Cincinnati and Columbus have faced each other 5 times, with Columbus winning 3 times.
About The Match
Cincinnati's home attack is the clearest edge in this match, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against a Columbus away defence that concedes 2.1 per away match, while Columbus's own away attack is modest at 1.6 goals per away match. The market prices Cincinnati as the match-winner favourite at 45%, with Columbus at 31% and the draw at 24%. The key uncertainty is whether Cincinnati's leaky home defence, conceding 2.1 per home match, can hold off a Columbus side that has won four of its last six matches.