Austin vs Vancouver — MLS 2026
Austin: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Vancouver: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:42 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Vancouver sit 2nd with 52 points while Austin are 27th with 31, a gap that reflects a season-long difference in quality rather than a recent wobble. At home Austin have managed just 4 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, while Vancouver have taken 6 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses on the road, so the venue does little to narrow the divide.
Austin
VancouverScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Vancouver's away attack is the more dangerous of the two, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Austin's 1.4 at home, and Vancouver sit clearly above the league's away-side average while Austin are marginally below the home-side norm. Austin's recent home form shows a slight uptick, with both teams scoring in all five of their last home matches, but the season-long edge belongs to Vancouver.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Vancouver's away defence is the standout unit here, conceding 1.1 goals per away match against Austin's 1.4 at home, and Vancouver are clearly better than the league's away-side average while Austin are level with the home-side norm. Vancouver have kept five away clean sheets this season, and Austin have failed to score in only one home match, so the visitors' solidity is the more reliable signal.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Austin are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 43% of their goals in the 76-90 window, while Vancouver's peak scoring band is earlier, with 21% of their goals in the 16-30 window. Austin are also most vulnerable late, conceding 39% of their goals in the 76-90 window, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Austin's matches are the more goal-heavy, with 69% of their matches going over 2.5 goals against Vancouver's 59%, and Austin's games are heavily back-loaded, with 66% producing two or more goals after half-time. Vancouver's away matches have averaged 3.0 combined goals, while Austin's home matches have averaged 2.79, so the total-goals picture is mixed.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 64%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total-goals market prices the over at 48% for the 3.25 line, while our model puts it at 36%, a difference of about 12 percentage points. Our read, built from the season-long goal records at the relevant venues, points to fewer goals than the market is pricing.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 2.2 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 50%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge minus 14.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 10.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 2.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
Chances are good to see a goal from Vancouver within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Vancouver have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 15 MLS matches, Austin have been awarded an average of 3.9 corners per match, while Vancouver have averaged 5.7 corners.
In the last 28 matches of the MLS, Austin conceded on average 1.8 goals per match while Vancouver conceded on average 1 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Vancouver have averaged 2.2 cards.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Vancouver sit 2nd with 52 points while Austin are 27th with 31, a gap that reflects a season-long difference in quality rather than a recent wobble. At home Austin have managed just 4 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, while Vancouver have taken 6 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses on the road, so the venue does little to narrow the divide.
AustinVancouverHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Vancouver have had the better of this fixture across the 10 meetings, winning 5 to Austin's 2 with 3 draws, and the goal count runs 13-8 in Vancouver's favour. The most recent meeting went Austin's way, a 2-1 win in Vancouver in September, but the broader pattern favours the visitors.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Vancouver's away attack is the more dangerous of the two, scoring 1.9 goals per away match against Austin's 1.4 at home, and Vancouver sit clearly above the league's away-side average while Austin are marginally below the home-side norm. Austin's recent home form shows a slight uptick, with both teams scoring in all five of their last home matches, but the season-long edge belongs to Vancouver.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Vancouver's away defence is the standout unit here, conceding 1.1 goals per away match against Austin's 1.4 at home, and Vancouver are clearly better than the league's away-side average while Austin are level with the home-side norm. Vancouver have kept five away clean sheets this season, and Austin have failed to score in only one home match, so the visitors' solidity is the more reliable signal.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Austin are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 43% of their goals in the 76-90 window, while Vancouver's peak scoring band is earlier, with 21% of their goals in the 16-30 window. Austin are also most vulnerable late, conceding 39% of their goals in the 76-90 window, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Austin's matches are the more goal-heavy, with 69% of their matches going over 2.5 goals against Vancouver's 59%, and Austin's games are heavily back-loaded, with 66% producing two or more goals after half-time. Vancouver's away matches have averaged 3.0 combined goals, while Austin's home matches have averaged 2.79, so the total-goals picture is mixed.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 64%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total-goals market prices the over at 48% for the 3.25 line, while our model puts it at 36%, a difference of about 12 percentage points. Our read, built from the season-long goal records at the relevant venues, points to fewer goals than the market is pricing.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 82%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 2.2 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 50%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge minus 14.3 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 10.5 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 2.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Austin lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
Chances are good to see a goal from Vancouver within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Vancouver have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 15 MLS matches, Austin have been awarded an average of 3.9 corners per match, while Vancouver have averaged 5.7 corners.
In the last 28 matches of the MLS, Austin conceded on average 1.8 goals per match while Vancouver conceded on average 1 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Austin have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Vancouver have averaged 2.2 cards.
About The Match
Vancouver arrive as the far stronger side on the season's evidence, and the market agrees, pricing them as clear favourites. The gap is starkest in the defensive numbers: Vancouver concede 1.1 goals per away match against Austin's 1.4 at home, and Vancouver's away record of 6 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses dwarfs Austin's home return of 4 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. The key uncertainty is whether Austin's late-match scoring, 43% of their goals after the 76th minute, can punish a Vancouver side that has kept five away clean sheets.