Houston vs Dallas — MLS 2026
Houston: 5 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Dallas: 1 yellow card, 1 red card
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:43 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Dallas hold the higher position at 5th with 50 points, while Houston sit 10th with 46 points. Houston's home record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is solid, but Dallas's away form of 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses is not far behind.
Houston
DallasScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Dallas carry a large attacking edge, scoring 1.8 goals per away match against Houston's 1.2 at home. Dallas are clearly better than the league's away average, while Houston are clearly worse than the home average.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston hold a clear defensive edge, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Dallas's 1.7 away. Houston are clearly better than the league's home average, while Dallas are level with the away average.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Houston are most dangerous in the 31-45 minute window, scoring 31% of their goals there, while Dallas peak late with 26% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Dallas's matches trend higher, with 65.52% of their matches going over 2.5 goals compared to Houston's 41.38%. Dallas's away matches average 3.47 combined goals, while Houston's home matches average just 2.07.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the under 52%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market is priced at 2.75, with the market implying a 50.2% chance of over. Our model puts the over at 47.7%, a marginal difference of about 2.5 percentage points below the market.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 94%, edge minus 1.0 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 69%, bookmaker correct-score price 79%, edge minus 10.4 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 55%, bookmaker correct-score price 56%, edge minus 1.1 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 30%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge minus 3.4 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 20%, bookmaker correct-score price 17%, edge plus 3.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Houston have conceded a total of only 12 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Houston lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.8 cards per match, while Dallas have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Dallas have averaged 0.4 cards.
Dallas seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 2 goals per match while Dallas conceded on average 1 goals per match.
Dallas conceded 3 less goals than Houston in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Dallas have averaged 5.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Dallas within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 20 months, Houston and Dallas have faced each other 3 times, with Dallas winning 2 times.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Dallas hold the higher position at 5th with 50 points, while Houston sit 10th with 46 points. Houston's home record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is solid, but Dallas's away form of 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses is not far behind.
HoustonDallasHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
The last 10 meetings are evenly split, with 3 wins apiece and 4 draws, and the goals are nearly level at 14 for Houston and 13 for Dallas. The most recent meeting, in March 2026, went Dallas's way 4-3.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Dallas carry a large attacking edge, scoring 1.8 goals per away match against Houston's 1.2 at home. Dallas are clearly better than the league's away average, while Houston are clearly worse than the home average.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Houston hold a clear defensive edge, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Dallas's 1.7 away. Houston are clearly better than the league's home average, while Dallas are level with the away average.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Houston are most dangerous in the 31-45 minute window, scoring 31% of their goals there, while Dallas peak late with 26% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Dallas's matches trend higher, with 65.52% of their matches going over 2.5 goals compared to Houston's 41.38%. Dallas's away matches average 3.47 combined goals, while Houston's home matches average just 2.07.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the under 52%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market is priced at 2.75, with the market implying a 50.2% chance of over. Our model puts the over at 47.7%, a marginal difference of about 2.5 percentage points below the market.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 94%, edge minus 1.0 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 69%, bookmaker correct-score price 79%, edge minus 10.4 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 55%, bookmaker correct-score price 56%, edge minus 1.1 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 30%, bookmaker correct-score price 34%, edge minus 3.4 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 20%, bookmaker correct-score price 17%, edge plus 3.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Houston have conceded a total of only 12 goals when playing at home, which is the least in the MLS this season.
Draw seems to be a common result for Houston lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.8 cards per match, while Dallas have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Dallas have averaged 0.4 cards.
Dallas seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Houston conceded on average 2 goals per match while Dallas conceded on average 1 goals per match.
Dallas conceded 3 less goals than Houston in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Houston have been awarded an average of 4 corners per match, while Dallas have averaged 5.2 corners.
Chances are good to see a goal from Dallas within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 20 months, Houston and Dallas have faced each other 3 times, with Dallas winning 2 times.
About The Match
Dallas arrive as the sharper side, sitting 5th to Houston's 10th and carrying 13 points from their last six matches against Houston's 6. The market still prices Houston as a narrow favourite at home, with a 46% win probability, but the underlying numbers point to a tight contest. The key uncertainty is whether Houston's strong home defence, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match, can hold off a Dallas attack that scores 1.8 per away match.