San Jose vs Nashville — MLS 2026
San Jose: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSNashville: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 8:02 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Nashville sit 1st with 66 points, a commanding 19 points clear of 8th-placed San Jose on 47, but the venue split narrows that gap sharply. San Jose's home record is a modest 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, while Nashville's away form is 6 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, so the visitors' edge on the road is far less pronounced than their overall standing.
San Jose
NashvilleScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
San Jose's home attack is level with the league average at 1.8 goals per match, and Nashville's away attack is also level with the league norm at 1.3, so neither side holds a clear edge going forward in this fixture. Nashville's overall scoring rate of 2.2 per match is well above San Jose's 1.8, but that advantage is built almost entirely at home, where they average 3.0 goals per match compared to 1.3 on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's away defence is the standout unit in this fixture, conceding 0.7 goals per away match against a league average of 1.86, a large edge over San Jose's home defence at 1.6 conceded per match. Nashville have kept seven clean sheets in 14 away matches, while San Jose have managed only four in 14 at home, making the visitors far more likely to keep things tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
San Jose are most dangerous in the opening 15 minutes, scoring 24% of their goals in that window, while Nashville's peak comes late with 27% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. San Jose are also most vulnerable late, conceding 29% of their goals in the 76-90 window against 20% scored there, while Nashville's defensive weakness is the 61-75 period where they concede 32% of goals against 13% scored.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Nashville's matches have been the higher-scoring this season, with 62.07% going over 2.5 goals compared to San Jose's 55.17%, though the venue split flips that picture. Nashville's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals just 42.86% of the time, while San Jose's home matches have gone over at 64.29%, so the home side's venue is the more goal-friendly setting.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals, with a 52.04% implied probability of the over. Our model's probability for the same line is 42.81%, putting our read about 9.2 percentage points below the market's, a moderate gap that suggests the season record sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 83%, edge minus 15.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 54%, bookmaker correct-score price 62%, edge minus 8.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 41%, edge minus 5.1 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 23%, edge minus 8.3 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 22 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Jose have received an average of 1.8 cards in the first half per match, while Nashville have averaged 0.6 cards.
Draw seems to be a common result for San Jose lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Jose have received an average of 3.2 cards per match, while Nashville have averaged 1.2 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, San Jose have been awarded an average of 4.5 corners per match, while Nashville have averaged 6.8 corners.
In the last 15 matches of the MLS, San Jose conceded on average 1.9 goals per match while Nashville conceded on average 0.8 goals per match.
Nashville blocks 77% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from San Jose within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Nashville sit 1st with 66 points, a commanding 19 points clear of 8th-placed San Jose on 47, but the venue split narrows that gap sharply. San Jose's home record is a modest 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, while Nashville's away form is 6 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, so the visitors' edge on the road is far less pronounced than their overall standing.
San JoseNashvilleHead-to-Head · LAST 4 MEETINGS
All four meetings between these clubs have ended level, with both teams scoring four goals each across those matches, so history offers no edge to either side. The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw in April 2024, and with the last encounter two years ago, that pattern is more a curiosity than a current form guide.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
San Jose's home attack is level with the league average at 1.8 goals per match, and Nashville's away attack is also level with the league norm at 1.3, so neither side holds a clear edge going forward in this fixture. Nashville's overall scoring rate of 2.2 per match is well above San Jose's 1.8, but that advantage is built almost entirely at home, where they average 3.0 goals per match compared to 1.3 on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Nashville's away defence is the standout unit in this fixture, conceding 0.7 goals per away match against a league average of 1.86, a large edge over San Jose's home defence at 1.6 conceded per match. Nashville have kept seven clean sheets in 14 away matches, while San Jose have managed only four in 14 at home, making the visitors far more likely to keep things tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
San Jose are most dangerous in the opening 15 minutes, scoring 24% of their goals in that window, while Nashville's peak comes late with 27% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. San Jose are also most vulnerable late, conceding 29% of their goals in the 76-90 window against 20% scored there, while Nashville's defensive weakness is the 61-75 period where they concede 32% of goals against 13% scored.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Nashville's matches have been the higher-scoring this season, with 62.07% going over 2.5 goals compared to San Jose's 55.17%, though the venue split flips that picture. Nashville's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals just 42.86% of the time, while San Jose's home matches have gone over at 64.29%, so the home side's venue is the more goal-friendly setting.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals, with a 52.04% implied probability of the over. Our model's probability for the same line is 42.81%, putting our read about 9.2 percentage points below the market's, a moderate gap that suggests the season record sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.3 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 83%, edge minus 15.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 54%, bookmaker correct-score price 62%, edge minus 8.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 41%, edge minus 5.1 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 23%, edge minus 8.3 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Nashville have conceded a total of only 22 goals, which is the least in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Jose have received an average of 1.8 cards in the first half per match, while Nashville have averaged 0.6 cards.
Draw seems to be a common result for San Jose lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, San Jose have received an average of 3.2 cards per match, while Nashville have averaged 1.2 cards.
In their last 10 MLS matches, San Jose have been awarded an average of 4.5 corners per match, while Nashville have averaged 6.8 corners.
In the last 15 matches of the MLS, San Jose conceded on average 1.9 goals per match while Nashville conceded on average 0.8 goals per match.
Nashville blocks 77% of all shots on target which is highest in MLS this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from San Jose within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Nashville arrive as the league's top side and the market's clear favourite, but their away record is far more modest than their home dominance, and San Jose's recent unbeaten run makes this tighter than the table gap suggests. Nashville's defence is the standout unit in this fixture, conceding 0.7 goals per away match against a league average of 1.86, while San Jose's home attack sits level with the league norm at 1.8. The key uncertainty is whether Nashville's away scoring, just 1.3 goals per match on the road, can break down a San Jose side that has not lost in eight matches.