Seattle vs Montreal — MLS 2026
Seattle: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
CARDSMontreal: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 8:03 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Seattle sit 13th with 41 points, while Montreal are 29th with 24, a gap of 17 points. At home, Seattle have a 7-3-4 record and a +3 goal difference, whereas Montreal's away record is 2-1-11 with a -22 goal difference, making this a clear mismatch in venue form.
Seattle
MontrealScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Seattle's home attack is marginally worse than the league average at 1.6 goals per home match, while Montreal's away attack is also below par at 1.1 goals per away match. Both sides stand the same distance from their own league baseline, so there is no clear attacking edge, though Seattle's home scoring is the higher of the two.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Seattle hold a clear defensive edge, conceding 1.4 goals per home match, level with the league average, while Montreal concede 2.7 goals per away match, clearly worse than the league's 1.86. Montreal's away defence is the weakest part of this fixture, and Seattle's home defence is solid.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Seattle are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 34% of their goals in the 76-90 window, while Montreal's scoring is split between 76-90 and 31-45, with 20% in each. Montreal are also most vulnerable late, conceding 29% of their goals in 76-90, against 20% of their goals scored in that window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Montreal's matches have been far more open, with 65.52% of their games going over 2.5 goals compared to Seattle's 44.83%. Seattle's matches are more controlled, with only 27.59% seeing over 1.5 first-half goals, while Montreal's first-half over rate is 48.28%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 55%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market is set at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48% and the under at 52%. Our model puts the over at 45%, so our read sits about 3 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the under is slightly more likely.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 0.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge plus 5.0 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge plus 3.5 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 6.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 25%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge plus 0.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Seattle seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have been awarded an average of 6.8 corners per match, while Montreal have averaged 4.6 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Seattle conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Montreal conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Montreal have averaged 0.4 cards.
Seattle conceded 4 less goals than Montreal in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Montreal have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Montreal within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Seattle sit 13th with 41 points, while Montreal are 29th with 24, a gap of 17 points. At home, Seattle have a 7-3-4 record and a +3 goal difference, whereas Montreal's away record is 2-1-11 with a -22 goal difference, making this a clear mismatch in venue form.
SeattleMontrealHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Montreal have had the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 meetings to Seattle's 3, with 1 draw, though the most recent meeting in 2024 was a 5-0 Seattle win. At this ground, Montreal have won 3 of the 5 meetings, with Seattle winning 2, and the goal difference is 7-4 in Seattle's favour.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Attack
Seattle's home attack is marginally worse than the league average at 1.6 goals per home match, while Montreal's away attack is also below par at 1.1 goals per away match. Both sides stand the same distance from their own league baseline, so there is no clear attacking edge, though Seattle's home scoring is the higher of the two.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Seattle hold a clear defensive edge, conceding 1.4 goals per home match, level with the league average, while Montreal concede 2.7 goals per away match, clearly worse than the league's 1.86. Montreal's away defence is the weakest part of this fixture, and Seattle's home defence is solid.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Seattle are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 34% of their goals in the 76-90 window, while Montreal's scoring is split between 76-90 and 31-45, with 20% in each. Montreal are also most vulnerable late, conceding 29% of their goals in 76-90, against 20% of their goals scored in that window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026
Montreal's matches have been far more open, with 65.52% of their games going over 2.5 goals compared to Seattle's 44.83%. Seattle's matches are more controlled, with only 27.59% seeing over 1.5 first-half goals, while Montreal's first-half over rate is 48.28%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 55%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The total goals market is set at 3.25, with the market pricing the over at 48% and the under at 52%. Our model puts the over at 45%, so our read sits about 3 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the under is slightly more likely.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 96%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 0.4 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge plus 5.0 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 68%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge plus 3.5 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 6.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 25%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge plus 0.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Seattle seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have been awarded an average of 6.8 corners per match, while Montreal have averaged 4.6 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Seattle conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Montreal conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Montreal have averaged 0.4 cards.
Seattle conceded 4 less goals than Montreal in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Seattle have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Montreal have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Montreal within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Seattle arrive in far better shape than Montreal, and the gap is most visible in recent form and defensive solidity. Seattle have taken 13 points from their last six league matches while Montreal have managed just 3, and Montreal's away defence has conceded 2.7 goals per match against Seattle's 1.4 at home. The market prices Seattle as clear favourites at 64%, but the totals market is finely balanced, with the under at 52% and our own model reading the over at 45%. The key uncertainty is whether Montreal's leaky away defence, which has conceded 38 goals in 14 road matches, can hold up against a Seattle attack that has scored 23 in 14 home matches.