Toronto vs Orlando — MLS 2026
Toronto: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSOrlando: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:44 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Orlando sit 15th with 37 points, eight places and five points clear of 23rd-placed Toronto on 32. At home Toronto have been hard to beat with 5 wins and 8 draws from 15 matches, while Orlando's away record is poor: just 3 wins and 9 losses from 14, with a goal difference of -22.
Toronto
OrlandoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Toronto's home attack is marginally better than the league average at 2.1 goals per home match, while Orlando's away attack is clearly above average at 1.8 goals per away match. Orlando hold a marginal attacking edge, but both sides score at a similar rate in this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Toronto's home defence is clearly worse than the league average, conceding 1.9 goals per home match, but Orlando's away defence is far worse, conceding 3.4 goals per away match. Toronto hold a clear defensive edge, which is the main reason they are favoured at home.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with Toronto scoring 41% of their goals between minutes 76-90 and Orlando scoring 27% in the same window. Toronto are particularly back-loaded, scoring 73% of their goals in the second half, while Orlando score 63% after the break.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Orlando's away matches are far more open, with 85.71% going over 3.5 goals compared to Toronto's 40% at home. Across all venues, 75% of Orlando's matches have gone over 2.5 goals versus 67.86% for Toronto, and both teams have failed to score in under 18% of their matches.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the over 63%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
Our model prices the over 3.5 goals line at 63%, while the market implies 49%. That is an edge of about 14 percentage points in favour of more goals, driven by Orlando's away matches averaging 5.14 total goals this season.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 88%, edge plus 12.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 80%, bookmaker correct-score price 69%, edge plus 10.1 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 63%, bookmaker correct-score price 49%, edge plus 13.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 29%, edge plus 29.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 47 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Toronto have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 1.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Toronto conceded on average 2 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Toronto have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2.4 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Toronto have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 3.6 corners.
Orlando seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.3 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In the last 20 months, Toronto and Orlando have faced each other 3 times, with Orlando winning 2 times.
Chances are good to see a goal from Orlando within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Orlando sit 15th with 37 points, eight places and five points clear of 23rd-placed Toronto on 32. At home Toronto have been hard to beat with 5 wins and 8 draws from 15 matches, while Orlando's away record is poor: just 3 wins and 9 losses from 14, with a goal difference of -22.
TorontoOrlandoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Orlando have dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 meetings with Toronto winning 2 and 1 draw. In the 5 meetings at this ground, Orlando have won 3 to Toronto's 1, with 1 draw, and the most recent meeting saw Orlando win 3-0.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Toronto's home attack is marginally better than the league average at 2.1 goals per home match, while Orlando's away attack is clearly above average at 1.8 goals per away match. Orlando hold a marginal attacking edge, but both sides score at a similar rate in this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Toronto's home defence is clearly worse than the league average, conceding 1.9 goals per home match, but Orlando's away defence is far worse, conceding 3.4 goals per away match. Toronto hold a clear defensive edge, which is the main reason they are favoured at home.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with Toronto scoring 41% of their goals between minutes 76-90 and Orlando scoring 27% in the same window. Toronto are particularly back-loaded, scoring 73% of their goals in the second half, while Orlando score 63% after the break.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Orlando's away matches are far more open, with 85.71% going over 3.5 goals compared to Toronto's 40% at home. Across all venues, 75% of Orlando's matches have gone over 2.5 goals versus 67.86% for Toronto, and both teams have failed to score in under 18% of their matches.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the over 63%; the bookmaker gives it 49%.
Our model prices the over 3.5 goals line at 63%, while the market implies 49%. That is an edge of about 14 percentage points in favour of more goals, driven by Orlando's away matches averaging 5.14 total goals this season.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.2 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 88%, edge plus 12.5 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 80%, bookmaker correct-score price 69%, edge plus 10.1 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 63%, bookmaker correct-score price 49%, edge plus 13.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 59%, bookmaker correct-score price 29%, edge plus 29.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 47 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Toronto have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 1.8 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Toronto conceded on average 2 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Toronto have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2.4 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Toronto have been awarded an average of 5 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 3.6 corners.
Orlando seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.
The chances of seeing a goal from Toronto in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.3 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In the last 20 months, Toronto and Orlando have faced each other 3 times, with Orlando winning 2 times.
Chances are good to see a goal from Orlando within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Orlando arrive as the sharper attacking side and the market's narrow underdog, but Toronto's home resilience and Orlando's leaky away defence point to a match that could swing on late goals. Orlando have won 7 of the 10 meetings between these clubs, including 3 of 5 at this ground, and their away matches this season average 5.14 total goals. The key uncertainty is whether Toronto's unbeaten home run can hold against an opponent that has lost its last three away matches while conceding heavily.