Montreal vs Atlanta — MLS 2026
Montreal: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
CARDSAtlanta: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:43 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Atlanta sit one place above Montreal, 28th to 29th, with 27 points to Montreal's 24, and the away side's record on the road is the more reliable of the two. Montreal have won 4 and lost 5 at home with a goal difference of +1, while Atlanta have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 7 away with a goal difference of -9.
Montreal
AtlantaScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Montreal's home attack is marginally the stronger of the two, scoring 1.4 goals per home match to Atlanta's 0.9 away, but both sit below their league baselines. Montreal are worse than the league average for a home side, while Atlanta are clearly worse than the average away side on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Atlanta's away defence is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.6 goals per away match to Montreal's 1.3 at home, but the league context flips the picture: Atlanta are better than the average away side, while Montreal are level with the league average for a home side. The defensive edge is level overall, with both sides standing the same distance from their own baselines.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Montreal are equally dangerous late in each half, scoring 20% of their goals in both the 31-45 and 76-90 minute windows, while Atlanta peak in the 61-75 minute band with 24% of their goals. Both sides are most vulnerable late, with Montreal conceding 30% of their goals after the 76th minute and Atlanta 27% in the same window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Montreal's matches are the higher-scoring of the two, with 64% going over 2.5 goals across the season to Atlanta's 61%, but the venue splits tell a different story: Montreal's home matches drop to 50% over 2.5, while Atlanta's away matches fall to 43%. Both sides are back-loaded, with Montreal's second halves producing 57% of their over-1.5 matches and Atlanta's 54%, and neither team is a reliable scorer, with Montreal failing to score in 36% of matches and Atlanta in 32%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 62%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The market prices the over 3 goals at 50%, while our model puts the probability at 38%, a difference of about 12 percentage points. Our read sits below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge minus 2.5 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 83%, edge minus 7.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 46%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge minus 14.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge minus 7.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 11%, bookmaker correct-score price 22%, edge minus 10.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Atlanta lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Atlanta have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Montreal conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Atlanta conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have been awarded an average of 5.4 corners per match, while Atlanta have averaged 3.6 corners.
The chances of seeing a goal from Atlanta in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Atlanta have averaged 0.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Montreal within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Atlanta sit one place above Montreal, 28th to 29th, with 27 points to Montreal's 24, and the away side's record on the road is the more reliable of the two. Montreal have won 4 and lost 5 at home with a goal difference of +1, while Atlanta have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 7 away with a goal difference of -9.
MontrealAtlantaHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Atlanta have had the better of this fixture across ten meetings, winning 5 to Montreal's 3 with 2 draws, and they won the most recent meeting 3-1 in May. At this ground the record is level, with 2 wins each and 2 draws in the 6 meetings here, and the goals are split 7-7.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Montreal's home attack is marginally the stronger of the two, scoring 1.4 goals per home match to Atlanta's 0.9 away, but both sit below their league baselines. Montreal are worse than the league average for a home side, while Atlanta are clearly worse than the average away side on the road.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Atlanta's away defence is the more solid of the two, conceding 1.6 goals per away match to Montreal's 1.3 at home, but the league context flips the picture: Atlanta are better than the average away side, while Montreal are level with the league average for a home side. The defensive edge is level overall, with both sides standing the same distance from their own baselines.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Montreal are equally dangerous late in each half, scoring 20% of their goals in both the 31-45 and 76-90 minute windows, while Atlanta peak in the 61-75 minute band with 24% of their goals. Both sides are most vulnerable late, with Montreal conceding 30% of their goals after the 76th minute and Atlanta 27% in the same window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Montreal's matches are the higher-scoring of the two, with 64% going over 2.5 goals across the season to Atlanta's 61%, but the venue splits tell a different story: Montreal's home matches drop to 50% over 2.5, while Atlanta's away matches fall to 43%. Both sides are back-loaded, with Montreal's second halves producing 57% of their over-1.5 matches and Atlanta's 54%, and neither team is a reliable scorer, with Montreal failing to score in 36% of matches and Atlanta in 32%.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.0
We give the under 62%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The market prices the over 3 goals at 50%, while our model puts the probability at 38%, a difference of about 12 percentage points. Our read sits below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 95%, edge minus 2.5 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 75%, bookmaker correct-score price 83%, edge minus 7.6 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 46%, bookmaker correct-score price 61%, edge minus 14.8 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 32%, bookmaker correct-score price 39%, edge minus 7.3 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 11%, bookmaker correct-score price 22%, edge minus 10.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Atlanta lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Atlanta have averaged 1.2 cards.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Montreal conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Atlanta conceded on average 0.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have been awarded an average of 5.4 corners per match, while Atlanta have averaged 3.6 corners.
The chances of seeing a goal from Atlanta in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while Atlanta have averaged 0.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Montreal within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Montreal and Atlanta meet as two of the league's weakest sides, separated by a single place and three points, but the sharper edge belongs to Atlanta on the road. Montreal's home form has collapsed to 3 points from their last six league matches, while Atlanta have taken 6 and are unbeaten in their last four away matches. The market prices this close to a coin flip on the total, with the over 3 goals at 50%, but our season-based read sits lower at 38%, pointing to a tighter match than the market expects. The key uncertainty is whether Montreal's second-half defensive frailty, conceding 30% of their goals after the 76th minute, can hold against an Atlanta side that scores 61% of its goals after the break.