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Cincinnati vs New England — MLS 2026

WED, OCT 14TQL Stadium
Cincinnati
2 – 3Half-time 1 – 2Full time
New England
Cincinnati: T. Barlow
13'
Cincinnati: K. Denkey
67'
21'
New England: D. Turgeman
43'
New England: J. Wynder
51'
New England: D. Turgeman

Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 7:05 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.

Standings & Form · MLS 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

New England sit 7th on 46 points, ten clear of 17th-placed Cincinnati on 36, and the visitors' away record of 5 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses is far stronger than Cincinnati's home split of 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. The gap in points is the headline, but Cincinnati's home form is the one venue-specific signal that narrows it.

Cincinnati
Last 6 · all comps
New England
Last 6 · all comps
CIN33%Win Rate50%NE
CIN33%Loss Rate36%NE

Head-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS

2
NE wins
3
draws
5
CIN wins

Cincinnati have won 5 of the 10 meetings, New England 2, with 3 draws, and the most recent meeting was a 6-1 New England win in March. At home, Cincinnati have won 3 of 6 meetings, with 2 draws and 1 New England win, and the goals in those home meetings are 12-7 in Cincinnati's favour.

Scoring Profile

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Attack

Cincinnati's home attack is a large edge, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against a league home-side average of 1.84, while New England's away attack is level with the league at 1.4. The gap between the two is the largest single attacking edge in this fixture.

All venues
Home/AwayCIN home · NE away

Goals Scored · Season

CIN2.11.6NE
CIN2.81.4NE

Failed to Score · Season

CIN15%25%NE
CIN8%21%NE

Attacking Share · Season

CIN47%54%NE
CIN59%45%NE

Goals Scored · Last 5

CIN1.81.6NE
CIN1.81.6NE

Failed to Score · Last 5

CIN20%40%NE
CIN0%20%NE

Goals & Timing

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Both teams are most dangerous late, with Cincinnati scoring 36% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window and New England 31%, and Cincinnati also concede most heavily just after half-time at 23% in the 46-60 window. The late scoring pattern suggests the match could stay tight before opening up in the final quarter.

CincinnatiNew England
9%
10%
22%
14%
9%
36%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
11%
9%
22%
18%
9%
31%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
CIN22%1st Half Lead %36%NE
CIN44%2nd Half Lead %43%NE

Goal Lines · Season 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

CIN ■NE ■· Share of each team's matches over the line

Cincinnati's matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 74% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season and 67% over 3.5, while New England's are lower at 71% over 2.5 and just 25% over 3.5. At home, Cincinnati's over 2.5 rate is 67% and New England's away is 79%, and both teams have been hotter recently, with all five of each side's last five matches going over 2.5.

CIN100%Over 0.596%NE
CIN93%Over 1.582%NE
CIN74%Over 2.571%NE
CIN67%Over 3.525%NE
CIN48%Over 4.514%NE
CIN41%Over 5.57%NE
4.56Combined Goals / G · FT · Season3.00

Betting Angles

Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5

Where we differ from the bookmaker
under 3.5 goals+4.6
Model 57% · bookmaker 52%Pts of edge
Chance of over 3.5 goals
Our model, over 3.5 goals
43%
Bookmaker, over 3.5 goals
48%

The total goals market is set at 3.5, and our model puts the probability of over 3.5 goals at 43.5%, while the market prices it at 48%. That leaves our read about 4.5 percentage points below the market's, a modest edge toward the under.

Chance of over · line by lineEdge · pts
  • Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.3 points
  • Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 1.7 points
  • Over 2.5 goals: our model 73%, bookmaker correct-score price 69%, edge plus 3.8 points
  • Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 48%, edge minus 4.5 points
  • Over 4.5 goals: our model 33%, bookmaker correct-score price 29%, edge plus 4.0 points

Statistical insight only · not advice

Match Trends · Data-provider insights

  1. In their last 3 MLS matches, Cincinnati have been awarded an average of 5.6 corners per match, while New England have averaged 9.6 corners.

  2. In the last 25 matches of the MLS, Cincinnati conceded on average 2.5 goals per match while New England conceded on average 1.3 goals per match.

  3. New England have been struggling lately. They lost 2 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.

  4. New England seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 5 matches of the MLS.

  5. New England conceded 4 less goals than Cincinnati in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.

  6. In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while New England have averaged 0.8 cards.

  7. Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.

  8. In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 2 cards per match, while New England have averaged 2.2 cards.

About The Match

Cincinnati's home attack is the clearest single edge in this fixture, but New England's away defence is the counterweight that keeps the market from making the hosts heavy favourites. Cincinnati score 2.8 goals per home match, well above the league's home-side average of 1.84, while New England concede just 1.6 on the road, better than the away norm of 1.84. The market prices the home win at 48% and the total at 3.5 goals, with a slight lean to the under. The key uncertainty is whether Cincinnati's leaky home defence, conceding 2.0 per match, lets New England's modest away attack, scoring 1.4, stay in the match.