Miami vs New York City — MLS 2026
Miami: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
CARDSNew York City: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:42 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami sit 3rd with 49 points, a gap of 16 points over New York City in 20th on 33. The home side's record at their own ground is modest at 5 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses, while New York City have managed 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses away, leaving the visitors with a negative away goal difference.
Miami
New York CityScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Miami's home attack is far more dangerous, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against New York City's 1.1 away, a large edge for the home side. Miami sit well above the league's home-side average, while New York City are marginally below the away-side norm.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York City's away defence is the stronger unit, conceding 1.2 goals per away match to Miami's 1.9 at home, a large edge for the visitors. New York City are clearly better than the league's away-side average, while Miami are clearly worse than the home-side norm.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami are most dangerous late, scoring 28% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while New York City peak earlier with 26% between minutes 16 and 30. The visitors are also vulnerable late, conceding 26% of their goals in the 76-90 window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami's matches are far more open, with 78.57% of their home matches going over 3.5 goals against just 7.14% for New York City away. The home side's games average 4.64 combined goals at this venue, while the visitors' away matches produce just 2.36.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices over 3.5 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 43%. Our read sits about 9 percentage points below the market's, a clear but not extreme difference.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 2.8 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 89%, edge plus 4.2 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 72%, edge minus 7.6 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 52%, edge minus 8.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 32%, edge minus 17.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Miami lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have received an average of 3.2 cards per match, while New York City have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have been awarded an average of 2.8 corners per match, while New York City have averaged 5 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while New York City have averaged 0.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Miami conceded on average 2 goals per match while New York City conceded on average 1 goals per match.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami sit 3rd with 49 points, a gap of 16 points over New York City in 20th on 33. The home side's record at their own ground is modest at 5 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses, while New York City have managed 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses away, leaving the visitors with a negative away goal difference.
MiamiNew York CityHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
History between these two is evenly split, with 3 wins apiece and 4 draws across 10 meetings. In the 5 meetings at this ground, the record is 1 win each and 3 draws, with Miami scoring 10 goals to New York City's 7.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Miami's home attack is far more dangerous, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against New York City's 1.1 away, a large edge for the home side. Miami sit well above the league's home-side average, while New York City are marginally below the away-side norm.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York City's away defence is the stronger unit, conceding 1.2 goals per away match to Miami's 1.9 at home, a large edge for the visitors. New York City are clearly better than the league's away-side average, while Miami are clearly worse than the home-side norm.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami are most dangerous late, scoring 28% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while New York City peak earlier with 26% between minutes 16 and 30. The visitors are also vulnerable late, conceding 26% of their goals in the 76-90 window.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Miami's matches are far more open, with 78.57% of their home matches going over 3.5 goals against just 7.14% for New York City away. The home side's games average 4.64 combined goals at this venue, while the visitors' away matches produce just 2.36.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 48%.
The total goals market prices over 3.5 goals at 52%, while our model puts the probability at 43%. Our read sits about 9 percentage points below the market's, a clear but not extreme difference.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 2.8 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 93%, bookmaker correct-score price 89%, edge plus 4.2 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 72%, edge minus 7.6 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 43%, bookmaker correct-score price 52%, edge minus 8.8 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 32%, edge minus 17.8 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Miami lately. They have drawn 4 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have received an average of 3.2 cards per match, while New York City have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have been awarded an average of 2.8 corners per match, while New York City have averaged 5 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Miami have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while New York City have averaged 0.2 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Miami within the first half. They have averaged 1.1 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Miami conceded on average 2 goals per match while New York City conceded on average 1 goals per match.
About The Match
Miami's home attack is the clearest signal in this fixture, scoring 2.8 goals per home match against a New York City side that concedes just 1.2 away. The visitors' defence is the one genuine counterweight, sitting well above the league's away-side average, but their attack has been blunt on the road at 1.1 goals per match. The key uncertainty is whether New York City's first-half scoring edge, 62% of their goals before the break, can hold against a Miami side that has not lost at home in six matches.