DC United vs New York — MLS 2026
DC United: 2 yellow cards, 1 red card
CARDSNew York: 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:42 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
New York sit higher in the table, 16th with 36 points to DC United's 26th and 30 points, but the home side's record at this venue is nearly identical to the visitors' on the road. DC United have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 5 at home, while New York have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 6 away, leaving both with a negative goal difference at their respective venues.
DC United
New YorkScoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Both attacks are below their league baselines, but DC United's home scoring is the more concerning, at 1.3 goals per home match against a league average of 1.84 for a home side, while New York's 1.1 away goals per match is only marginally below the 1.4 away-side average. The attack edge is level, meaning neither side stands out relative to its own baseline, and both teams have struggled to score consistently in their recent venue-specific matches.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York hold a clear defensive edge, conceding 1.8 goals per away match, which is level with the league average for an away side, while DC United concede the same 1.8 at home but against a lower home-side baseline of 1.4, making them clearly worse than average. Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets in their relevant venue this season, but DC United's home defence has been leakier relative to expectation.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous late, with DC United scoring 32% of their goals in the 76-90 minute band and New York 24%, and both are also most vulnerable in that same window, conceding 24% and 23% respectively. New York's conceding peak is actually tied with the 46-60 minute band, so they are equally leaky just after halftime.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
DC United's home matches have been higher-scoring than their season average, with 71.43% of their home matches going over 2.5 goals compared to 59.26% across all venues, while New York's away matches sit at 57.14% over 2.5, identical to their all-venues rate. Both teams have failed to score in roughly a quarter to a third of their matches, with DC United at 28.57% at home and New York at 21.43% away.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The market prices the total at over 3.25 goals with a 48% implied probability, while our model puts the chance of going over that line at 43%. Our read sits about 5 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the market is slightly more optimistic about goals than our season-based estimate.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 5.9 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge no edge
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 7.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 10.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for DC United lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have been awarded an average of 5.2 corners per match, while New York have averaged 3.4 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while New York have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while New York have averaged 1 card.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, DC United conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while New York conceded on average 1 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
New York sit higher in the table, 16th with 36 points to DC United's 26th and 30 points, but the home side's record at this venue is nearly identical to the visitors' on the road. DC United have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 5 at home, while New York have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 6 away, leaving both with a negative goal difference at their respective venues.
DC UnitedNew YorkHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
New York have dominated this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings to DC United's 1, with 4 draws, and the goal difference across those matches is 21-13 in New York's favour. At this ground, New York have won 3 of the 5 meetings, with DC United yet to win and 2 draws, and the goal difference there is 12-5.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Attack
Both attacks are below their league baselines, but DC United's home scoring is the more concerning, at 1.3 goals per home match against a league average of 1.84 for a home side, while New York's 1.1 away goals per match is only marginally below the 1.4 away-side average. The attack edge is level, meaning neither side stands out relative to its own baseline, and both teams have struggled to score consistently in their recent venue-specific matches.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York hold a clear defensive edge, conceding 1.8 goals per away match, which is level with the league average for an away side, while DC United concede the same 1.8 at home but against a lower home-side baseline of 1.4, making them clearly worse than average. Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets in their relevant venue this season, but DC United's home defence has been leakier relative to expectation.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous late, with DC United scoring 32% of their goals in the 76-90 minute band and New York 24%, and both are also most vulnerable in that same window, conceding 24% and 23% respectively. New York's conceding peak is actually tied with the 46-60 minute band, so they are equally leaky just after halftime.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026
DC United's home matches have been higher-scoring than their season average, with 71.43% of their home matches going over 2.5 goals compared to 59.26% across all venues, while New York's away matches sit at 57.14% over 2.5, identical to their all-venues rate. Both teams have failed to score in roughly a quarter to a third of their matches, with DC United at 28.57% at home and New York at 21.43% away.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 52%.
The market prices the total at over 3.25 goals with a 48% implied probability, while our model puts the chance of going over that line at 43%. Our read sits about 5 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the market is slightly more optimistic about goals than our season-based estimate.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge minus 6.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 79%, bookmaker correct-score price 84%, edge minus 5.9 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 64%, bookmaker correct-score price 64%, edge no edge
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 36%, bookmaker correct-score price 43%, edge minus 7.2 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 14%, bookmaker correct-score price 24%, edge minus 10.0 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for DC United lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have been awarded an average of 5.2 corners per match, while New York have averaged 3.4 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while New York have averaged 1.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, DC United have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while New York have averaged 1 card.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, DC United conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while New York conceded on average 1 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
New York arrive in better shape and with a clear historical edge, but DC United's home form and the market's pricing keep this contest closer than the table suggests. The visitors have won 5 of the last 10 meetings and 3 of the 5 played at this ground, while DC United are winless in their last 5 matches overall. The market prices the home side at 52% to win, yet both teams' season goal records point to a low-scoring, second-half-weighted match. The key uncertainty is whether DC United's recent scoring struggles, just 3 goals in their last 6 home matches, can be overcome against a New York side that has kept 3 clean sheets in its last 5 away matches.