Philadelphia vs Orlando — MLS 2026
Philadelphia: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Orlando: 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:37 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The table gap is minimal, but the home and away splits tell a sharper story: Philadelphia have taken 1.58 points per home match against Orlando's 0.85 per away match, a difference that flatters neither side but explains the market's strong home lean. Philadelphia's home goal difference of +8 contrasts with Orlando's away goal difference of -20, so the venue is doing much of the work in this matchup.
Philadelphia
OrlandoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Philadelphia's home attack is modest at 1.6 goals per home match, while Orlando score 1.8 per away match, so the visitors actually carry the slightly better scoring rate into this venue. Philadelphia's recent form is far stronger, with 3.8 goals per match over their last five, but that includes away games, and their home scoring has been quieter than their overall record.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Philadelphia are clearly the more solid side at home, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Orlando's 3.3 per away match, a gap of over two goals that is the largest defensive edge in this fixture. Orlando's away defence has been the leakiest in the league this season, while Philadelphia's home record includes a clean sheet in 42% of matches.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Philadelphia are most dangerous between minutes 61 and 75, scoring 32% of their goals in that window, while Orlando's peak comes earlier, with 26% of their goals between minutes 16 and 30. Both sides are second-half scorers, so the match may open up after the break, and Orlando's late vulnerability, conceding 25% of their goals after the 76th minute, could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Orlando's away matches have been the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% of their away matches going over 2.5 goals against 50% of Philadelphia's home matches. Philadelphia's home matches average 2.5 total goals, while Orlando's away matches average 5.08, so the visitors' travel record is the main driver of the high total line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.75
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total goals market is priced at 3.75, and our model gives the over a 55% probability against the market's 51%, an edge of about 4 percentage points toward more goals. That is a modest but real lean, driven by Orlando's away matches averaging over five total goals this season.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 43 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
In their last 25 MLS matches, Philadelphia have been awarded an average of 6 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 3.9 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Philadelphia conceded on average 1 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Philadelphia have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Philadelphia have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Philadelphia within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
The table gap is minimal, but the home and away splits tell a sharper story: Philadelphia have taken 1.58 points per home match against Orlando's 0.85 per away match, a difference that flatters neither side but explains the market's strong home lean. Philadelphia's home goal difference of +8 contrasts with Orlando's away goal difference of -20, so the venue is doing much of the work in this matchup.
PhiladelphiaOrlandoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Orlando have had the better of this fixture recently, winning 5 of the 10 meetings to Philadelphia's 3, and they won the most recent encounter 4-3 in May. The meetings have been high-scoring, averaging 3.8 total goals with both teams scoring in 80% of them, so history points to an open match rather than a cagey one.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Philadelphia's home attack is modest at 1.6 goals per home match, while Orlando score 1.8 per away match, so the visitors actually carry the slightly better scoring rate into this venue. Philadelphia's recent form is far stronger, with 3.8 goals per match over their last five, but that includes away games, and their home scoring has been quieter than their overall record.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Philadelphia are clearly the more solid side at home, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Orlando's 3.3 per away match, a gap of over two goals that is the largest defensive edge in this fixture. Orlando's away defence has been the leakiest in the league this season, while Philadelphia's home record includes a clean sheet in 42% of matches.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Philadelphia are most dangerous between minutes 61 and 75, scoring 32% of their goals in that window, while Orlando's peak comes earlier, with 26% of their goals between minutes 16 and 30. Both sides are second-half scorers, so the match may open up after the break, and Orlando's late vulnerability, conceding 25% of their goals after the 76th minute, could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Orlando's away matches have been the higher-scoring environment, with 84.62% of their away matches going over 2.5 goals against 50% of Philadelphia's home matches. Philadelphia's home matches average 2.5 total goals, while Orlando's away matches average 5.08, so the visitors' travel record is the main driver of the high total line.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.75
We give the over 55%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total goals market is priced at 3.75, and our model gives the over a 55% probability against the market's 51%, an edge of about 4 percentage points toward more goals. That is a modest but real lean, driven by Orlando's away matches averaging over five total goals this season.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 43 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
In their last 25 MLS matches, Philadelphia have been awarded an average of 6 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 3.9 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Philadelphia conceded on average 1 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Philadelphia have received an average of 2.4 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Philadelphia have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 0.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Philadelphia within the first half. They have averaged 0.5 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Philadelphia arrive as the form side and the market's clear favourite, but Orlando's away matches have produced goals at a rate that makes the total the more interesting read. Philadelphia are unbeaten in their last eight matches and have taken 16 points from their last six, while Orlando have lost their last two and sit just two points behind in the table. The market prices Philadelphia at 66% to win, yet the total line of 3.75 goals is the standout: our season-priced model puts the over at 55%, a touch above the market's 51%. The key uncertainty is whether Orlando's leaky away defence, which concedes 3.3 goals per away match, can keep this tight enough to stay under a high total.