Atlanta vs New York City — MLS 2026
Atlanta: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
CARDSNew York City: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 26, 2026, 8:14 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
New York City sit 19th with 32 points, clearly above Atlanta's 28th place and 26 points, and the gap widens on the road where New York City have taken 1.33 points per away match against Atlanta's 1.08 at home. The away side's superior away record makes them the more reliable side in this fixture.
Atlanta
New York CityScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
Attack
Atlanta's home attack averages 1.4 goals per match, slightly better than New York City's 1.1 away, but the visitors' overall scoring rate of 1.5 per match is higher than Atlanta's 1.2. The attacking edge is marginal and likely to be decided by which side converts their chances.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York City's away defence concedes just 1.1 goals per match, significantly better than Atlanta's home record of 1.8 conceded, giving the visitors a clear defensive advantage. Atlanta's home clean sheet rate of just 8% underlines their vulnerability.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
New York City are fast starters, scoring 26% of their goals between minutes 16-30, while Atlanta's peak scoring window is shared between 31-45 and 76-90 (23% each). Both teams are most vulnerable late, conceding 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
Atlanta's home matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 75% going over 2.5 goals compared to New York City's 33% away, though the visitors' overall season rate is 50%. Both teams have trended colder recently, with only 40% and 20% of their last five matches going over 2.5.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 47%.
The total goals market is set at 2.75, with the market pricing the over at 53% while our model puts it at 43%. Our read sits about 10 percentage points below the market's, suggesting the season data sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while New York City have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Atlanta have been awarded an average of 4.6 corners per match, while New York City have averaged 6.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while New York City have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 15 matches of the MLS, Atlanta conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while New York City conceded on average 1 goals per match.
The chances of seeing a goal from Atlanta in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York City within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
New York City sit 19th with 32 points, clearly above Atlanta's 28th place and 26 points, and the gap widens on the road where New York City have taken 1.33 points per away match against Atlanta's 1.08 at home. The away side's superior away record makes them the more reliable side in this fixture.
AtlantaNew York CityHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
History between these clubs has been remarkably even, with 6 draws in the last 10 meetings and New York City holding a 3-1 win advantage. At this venue, the last 5 meetings have produced 1 win each and 3 draws, suggesting a tight contest is likely again.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
Attack
Atlanta's home attack averages 1.4 goals per match, slightly better than New York City's 1.1 away, but the visitors' overall scoring rate of 1.5 per match is higher than Atlanta's 1.2. The attacking edge is marginal and likely to be decided by which side converts their chances.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York City's away defence concedes just 1.1 goals per match, significantly better than Atlanta's home record of 1.8 conceded, giving the visitors a clear defensive advantage. Atlanta's home clean sheet rate of just 8% underlines their vulnerability.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
New York City are fast starters, scoring 26% of their goals between minutes 16-30, while Atlanta's peak scoring window is shared between 31-45 and 76-90 (23% each). Both teams are most vulnerable late, conceding 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 26, 2026
Atlanta's home matches are the higher-scoring environment, with 75% going over 2.5 goals compared to New York City's 33% away, though the visitors' overall season rate is 50%. Both teams have trended colder recently, with only 40% and 20% of their last five matches going over 2.5.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 2.75
We give the under 57%; the bookmaker gives it 47%.
The total goals market is set at 2.75, with the market pricing the over at 53% while our model puts it at 43%. Our read sits about 10 percentage points below the market's, suggesting the season data sees fewer goals than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while New York City have averaged 1.8 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Atlanta have been awarded an average of 4.6 corners per match, while New York City have averaged 6.3 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Atlanta have received an average of 0.6 cards in the first half per match, while New York City have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 15 matches of the MLS, Atlanta conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while New York City conceded on average 1 goals per match.
The chances of seeing a goal from Atlanta in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the MLS matches this season.
Chances are good to see a goal from New York City within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Atlanta and New York City meet with the visitors holding the better overall record, but the home side's recent form and a history of high-scoring draws make this a tighter contest than the table suggests. New York City have won 3 of the last 10 meetings while Atlanta have won just 1, with 6 draws, and the market prices the total at 2.75 with a lean to the over. The key uncertainty is whether Atlanta's home scoring edge (1.4 goals per home match) can overcome New York City's solid away defence (1.1 conceded per away match).