Charlotte vs Chicago — MLS 2026
Charlotte: 5 yellow cards, 1 red card
Chicago: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:36 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Charlotte's home form is the real separator here: they sit 8th overall but have taken 1.92 points per home match, while Chicago's away record of 1.31 points per away match is the weaker side of their 11th place standing. The home side's goal difference at home is +13, against Chicago's -1 on the road, so the table gap flatters neither side but does confirm a meaningful venue split.
Charlotte
ChicagoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Charlotte's home attack is the sharper of the two, scoring 2.0 goals per home match against Chicago's 1.8 away, and the home side's season average of 1.8 goals per match is matched by Chicago's away figure. The gap is modest but consistent, and Charlotte's recent home form of 1.6 goals per match is slightly below their season rate, so the edge is real but not overwhelming.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Charlotte are the more solid side at home, conceding just 1.0 goals per home match, while Chicago concede 1.8 away, a gap of 0.8 goals per match that is the clearest defensive signal in this fixture. Charlotte's home record of 1.0 conceded is also better than their season average of 1.4, while Chicago's away figure is worse than their season mark of 1.5, so the venue split works in opposite directions for the two sides.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Charlotte's peak scoring window is the 16-30 minute band, where they score 21% of their goals, while Chicago are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute band with 24%. Both teams are most vulnerable late: Charlotte concede 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, and Chicago concede 34% there, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams produce high-scoring matches, with 69% of Charlotte's games and 76% of Chicago's going over 2.5 goals this season, and the away side's matches are even more open on the road at 77% over 2.5. Charlotte's home matches have gone over 2.5 in 69% of cases, while Chicago's away matches have done so in 77%, so the venue split favours goals from both sides.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
Our model prices the over 3.25 goals line at 58%, while the market implies 50%, a difference of about 7 percentage points in favour of more goals. That edge is modest but points to a slightly more open match than the market expects.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Chicago lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Charlotte have been awarded an average of 3 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 5.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Charlotte have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Charlotte have received an average of 0.4 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Charlotte conceded on average 1 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from Charlotte within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Charlotte's home form is the real separator here: they sit 8th overall but have taken 1.92 points per home match, while Chicago's away record of 1.31 points per away match is the weaker side of their 11th place standing. The home side's goal difference at home is +13, against Chicago's -1 on the road, so the table gap flatters neither side but does confirm a meaningful venue split.
CharlotteChicagoHead-to-Head · LAST 9 MEETINGS
History between these two is high-scoring and evenly split: across 9 meetings, Charlotte have won 5 and Chicago 4, with no draws and an average of 4.0 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 78% of those meetings, which points to an open, attacking contest rather than a cagey one.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Charlotte's home attack is the sharper of the two, scoring 2.0 goals per home match against Chicago's 1.8 away, and the home side's season average of 1.8 goals per match is matched by Chicago's away figure. The gap is modest but consistent, and Charlotte's recent home form of 1.6 goals per match is slightly below their season rate, so the edge is real but not overwhelming.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Charlotte are the more solid side at home, conceding just 1.0 goals per home match, while Chicago concede 1.8 away, a gap of 0.8 goals per match that is the clearest defensive signal in this fixture. Charlotte's home record of 1.0 conceded is also better than their season average of 1.4, while Chicago's away figure is worse than their season mark of 1.5, so the venue split works in opposite directions for the two sides.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Charlotte's peak scoring window is the 16-30 minute band, where they score 21% of their goals, while Chicago are most dangerous in the 61-75 minute band with 24%. Both teams are most vulnerable late: Charlotte concede 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, and Chicago concede 34% there, so the closing stages could be decisive.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Both teams produce high-scoring matches, with 69% of Charlotte's games and 76% of Chicago's going over 2.5 goals this season, and the away side's matches are even more open on the road at 77% over 2.5. Charlotte's home matches have gone over 2.5 in 69% of cases, while Chicago's away matches have done so in 77%, so the venue split favours goals from both sides.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 58%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
Our model prices the over 3.25 goals line at 58%, while the market implies 50%, a difference of about 7 percentage points in favour of more goals. That edge is modest but points to a slightly more open match than the market expects.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Draw seems to be a common result for Chicago lately. They have drawn 3 out of their last 5 MLS matches.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Charlotte have been awarded an average of 3 corners per match, while Chicago have averaged 5.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Charlotte have received an average of 2 cards per match, while Chicago have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Charlotte have received an average of 0.4 cards in the first half per match, while Chicago have averaged 0.4 cards.
In the last 5 matches of the MLS, Charlotte conceded on average 1 goals per match while Chicago conceded on average 2.4 goals per match.
Chances are good to see a goal from Charlotte within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Charlotte arrive as the clear form side, unbeaten in their last six league matches with 14 points, while Chicago are winless in six and have taken just 4. The market prices Charlotte at 44% to win, but the more telling number is the total goals market, where our model sees a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals against the market's 50%, a gap of about 7 percentage points. The key uncertainty is whether Chicago's leaky away defence, conceding 1.8 goals per away match, can hold off a Charlotte attack that has scored 2.0 per home match.