Montreal vs Cincinnati — MLS 2026
Montreal: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Cincinnati: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 25, 2026, 8:36 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati's 16th-place standing flatters them slightly, as their away record is poor with just 1 win and 6 draws from 13 road matches, but Montreal are far worse at home with only 3 wins and 5 losses from 13 matches. The home side's -1 goal difference at home is far better than their -21 away, yet Cincinnati's +10 home goal difference shows where their points have come from. This is a matchup of two teams that have struggled on the road, but Montreal's home form is not strong enough to bridge the 12-point gap in the table.
Montreal
CincinnatiScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's away attack is more potent than Montreal's home attack, averaging 1.5 goals per away match against Montreal's 1.2 at home. Montreal's home scoring is also below their own season average of 1.2, while Cincinnati's away output is slightly below their overall 2.2 per match. The visitors hold a narrow but real edge in attacking output for this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Montreal's home defense is far more solid than Cincinnati's away defense, conceding 1.3 goals per home match against Cincinnati's 2.8 away. Montreal's home figure is also better than their own season average of 2.0 conceded, while Cincinnati's away record is worse than their overall 2.4. This is the clearest defensive edge in the match, and it favours the home side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati are most dangerous late, scoring 35% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Montreal are equally dangerous in that same window and the 31-45 minute band at 23% each. Montreal's vulnerability is also late, conceding 28% of their goals after the 76th minute, which sets up a potential late flurry given Cincinnati's scoring pattern. The match could open up significantly in the final quarter.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati's matches are far more likely to go over 2.5 goals, at 72% this season compared to Montreal's 62%, and the gap widens at this venue with 77% of Cincinnati's away matches going over against 46% of Montreal's home matches. Montreal's recent form has trended colder with only 40% of their last five going over 2.5, while Cincinnati have stayed consistent at 80%. The visitors' matches average 4.6 combined goals per match, well above Montreal's 3.23, making this a fixture that leans toward goals.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total goals market sets the line at 3.25 goals, with the market pricing the over at 51% and the under at 49%. Our model puts the over at 53%, giving us a marginal edge of about 1.4 percentage points toward the over. This is a near-identical read, with both sides seeing this as a high-scoring fixture but neither showing a strong lean.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Montreal have been struggling lately. They lost 3 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
Draw seems to be a common result for Cincinnati lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Montreal conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Cincinnati conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 0.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have been awarded an average of 4.8 corners per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 6.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 1.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati's 16th-place standing flatters them slightly, as their away record is poor with just 1 win and 6 draws from 13 road matches, but Montreal are far worse at home with only 3 wins and 5 losses from 13 matches. The home side's -1 goal difference at home is far better than their -21 away, yet Cincinnati's +10 home goal difference shows where their points have come from. This is a matchup of two teams that have struggled on the road, but Montreal's home form is not strong enough to bridge the 12-point gap in the table.
MontrealCincinnatiHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Cincinnati have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings to Montreal's 3, with the most recent clash ending 4-3 to Cincinnati in March. The average of 4.2 total goals per meeting and 70% both-teams-scoring rate point to an open, high-scoring contest. Montreal have not beaten Cincinnati in their last five meetings, a pattern that gives the visitors a clear psychological edge.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's away attack is more potent than Montreal's home attack, averaging 1.5 goals per away match against Montreal's 1.2 at home. Montreal's home scoring is also below their own season average of 1.2, while Cincinnati's away output is slightly below their overall 2.2 per match. The visitors hold a narrow but real edge in attacking output for this fixture.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
Montreal's home defense is far more solid than Cincinnati's away defense, conceding 1.3 goals per home match against Cincinnati's 2.8 away. Montreal's home figure is also better than their own season average of 2.0 conceded, while Cincinnati's away record is worse than their overall 2.4. This is the clearest defensive edge in the match, and it favours the home side.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati are most dangerous late, scoring 35% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Montreal are equally dangerous in that same window and the 31-45 minute band at 23% each. Montreal's vulnerability is also late, conceding 28% of their goals after the 76th minute, which sets up a potential late flurry given Cincinnati's scoring pattern. The match could open up significantly in the final quarter.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati's matches are far more likely to go over 2.5 goals, at 72% this season compared to Montreal's 62%, and the gap widens at this venue with 77% of Cincinnati's away matches going over against 46% of Montreal's home matches. Montreal's recent form has trended colder with only 40% of their last five going over 2.5, while Cincinnati have stayed consistent at 80%. The visitors' matches average 4.6 combined goals per match, well above Montreal's 3.23, making this a fixture that leans toward goals.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
The total goals market sets the line at 3.25 goals, with the market pricing the over at 51% and the under at 49%. Our model puts the over at 53%, giving us a marginal edge of about 1.4 percentage points toward the over. This is a near-identical read, with both sides seeing this as a high-scoring fixture but neither showing a strong lean.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Montreal have been struggling lately. They lost 3 of their last 3 matches of the MLS.
Draw seems to be a common result for Cincinnati lately. They have drawn 2 out of their last 3 MLS matches.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Montreal conceded on average 1.6 goals per match while Cincinnati conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 0.6 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have been awarded an average of 4.8 corners per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 6.6 corners.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Cincinnati have averaged 1.6 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged 0.9 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Montreal host Cincinnati with both sides badly out of form, but the visitors arrive with the stronger underlying numbers and a clear edge in this matchup's history. Cincinnati have won 6 of the last 10 meetings and the market prices them as narrow favourites at 39% to win, while Montreal sit 29th in the table with just 1 point from their last six. The most telling figure is the away side's 4.6 combined goals per match this season, which points to a high-scoring contest even though Montreal's recent matches have trended colder. The key uncertainty is whether Montreal's second-half defensive frailty, they concede 28% of their goals after the 76th minute, will be punished by a Cincinnati side that scores 35% of its goals in that same window.