New England vs Orlando — MLS 2026
New England: 4 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Orlando: 0 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 17, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
New England's home record is far stronger than Orlando's away record, with 8 home wins against 3 away wins and a home goal difference of +11 versus Orlando's -18 on the road. That gap of 29 goal difference points is the largest single edge in this fixture, and it explains why the market favours the home side.
New England
OrlandoScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
New England's home attack is solid but not explosive, averaging 1.8 goals per home match, while Orlando's away attack matches that at 1.8 goals per away match. The edge is marginal, but Orlando's away matches have produced far more combined goals, suggesting their attack is more dangerous in open games.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New England's home defence is the clear strength here, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Orlando's 3.2 conceded per away match. That is a gap of 2.3 goals per game, the widest defensive disparity in this fixture, and it strongly favours the home side keeping things tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
New England are most dangerous late, scoring 29% of their goals between minutes 76-90, while Orlando peak earlier with 27% of their goals between minutes 16-30. New England's vulnerability is just before halftime, conceding 35% of their goals in the 31-45 band, which could give Orlando an opening.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Orlando's away matches have been the most goal-heavy in the league, with 83% of their away games going over 2.5 goals, compared to 58% for New England at home. The market has set the total at 3.25, and Orlando's away record of 100% over 1.5 goals suggests a high-scoring game is likely.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
Our model gives a 53% probability that this match goes over the 3.25 total goals line, while the market prices it at 51%. That leaves our read about 2 percentage points above the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the goal environment is slightly more open than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 39 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Orlando seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 3 MLS matches, New England have been awarded an average of 2.3 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 5 corners.
In the last 25 matches of the MLS, New England conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 2.2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 0.6 cards.
In the last 17 months, New England and Orlando have faced each other 3 times, with Orlando winning 2 times.
Chances are good to see a goal from Orlando within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
New England's home record is far stronger than Orlando's away record, with 8 home wins against 3 away wins and a home goal difference of +11 versus Orlando's -18 on the road. That gap of 29 goal difference points is the largest single edge in this fixture, and it explains why the market favours the home side.
New EnglandOrlandoHead-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS
Orlando have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings to New England's 3, with an average of 4.2 total goals per game and both teams scoring in 80% of them. The most recent meeting was a 4-3 Orlando win, and New England have not beaten Orlando in their last five encounters.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Attack
New England's home attack is solid but not explosive, averaging 1.8 goals per home match, while Orlando's away attack matches that at 1.8 goals per away match. The edge is marginal, but Orlando's away matches have produced far more combined goals, suggesting their attack is more dangerous in open games.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New England's home defence is the clear strength here, conceding just 0.9 goals per home match against Orlando's 3.2 conceded per away match. That is a gap of 2.3 goals per game, the widest defensive disparity in this fixture, and it strongly favours the home side keeping things tight.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
New England are most dangerous late, scoring 29% of their goals between minutes 76-90, while Orlando peak earlier with 27% of their goals between minutes 16-30. New England's vulnerability is just before halftime, conceding 35% of their goals in the 31-45 band, which could give Orlando an opening.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 17, 2026
Orlando's away matches have been the most goal-heavy in the league, with 83% of their away games going over 2.5 goals, compared to 58% for New England at home. The market has set the total at 3.25, and Orlando's away record of 100% over 1.5 goals suggests a high-scoring game is likely.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the over 53%; the bookmaker gives it 51%.
Our model gives a 53% probability that this match goes over the 3.25 total goals line, while the market prices it at 51%. That leaves our read about 2 percentage points above the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the goal environment is slightly more open than the odds imply.
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figure implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
Orlando have conceded a total of 39 goals when playing away, which is the most in the MLS this season.
Orlando seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 3 MLS matches, New England have been awarded an average of 2.3 corners per match, while Orlando have averaged 5 corners.
In the last 25 matches of the MLS, New England conceded on average 1.2 goals per match while Orlando conceded on average 2.2 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 1.8 cards per match, while Orlando have averaged 2.2 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New England have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Orlando have averaged 0.6 cards.
In the last 17 months, New England and Orlando have faced each other 3 times, with Orlando winning 2 times.
Chances are good to see a goal from Orlando within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
New England's home form gives them a clear edge in the standings, but Orlando's away matches have been the most open in the league, and their head-to-head dominance is stark. The market prices New England as a moderate favourite at 51% to win, yet the total goals line of 3.25 is nearly a coin flip. The key tension is whether New England's solid home defence can contain an Orlando side that has scored in every recent away match and conceded heavily on the road.