MLS 2026 ·
Orlando City SC vs DC United preview: Orlando host DC United with both attacks leaning late
Orlando welcome DC United to Inter.co Stadium with the home side's late-match scoring habit the clearest single pattern in the data. Orlando score 30% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while DC United concede 23% of theirs in that same window.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats.
Absences hit both attacks
Orlando are missing five players, and the list removes two of their leading creators. Tyrese Spicer and Justin Ellis, both unavailable, are among the side's top scorers and assisters this season. Tyrese Spicer, Griffin Dorsey and Justin Ellis, all unavailable, have scored 10 goals between them, 19% of the side's goals in this competition. DC United are without three players, including forward Louis Munteanu, who has scored 6 goals, 17% of the side's goals in this competition. Neither side is at full strength in the final third.
Ojeda and Baribo carry the scoring
Martin Ojeda leads Orlando with 14 goals in 23 matches, a 26% share of the team's goals in this competition. Tai Baribo has been even more central for DC United, scoring 15 goals in 22 matches, 42% of the side's goals. Both are available and will be the primary threats. Orlando's next most productive scorer is Antoine Griezmann with 10 goals, while DC United's supporting cast is thinner, with no other player above 6 goals.
Orlando hold the form edge
Orlando arrive in better shape, taking 10 points from their last six league matches to DC United's 8. Orlando's latest result was a draw, while DC United won their most recent match. Over their last six matches in all competitions, Orlando have won twice, drawn once and lost three, scoring 14 goals and conceding 15. DC United have won once, drawn twice and lost three in that same window, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Both sides have played two matches in the last 14 days and had three days of rest.
Orlando sit higher but leak goals
Orlando are 16th with 38 points, while DC United are 24th with 33 points. At home, Orlando have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 4, with a goal difference of +7. DC United away have won 2, drawn 7 and lost 4, with a goal difference of -5. The visitors' away record is built on draws rather than wins, while Orlando's home form is more decisive.
History is split down the middle
Across 10 meetings since 2021, Orlando have won 4, DC United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn. The goal difference is 23-19 in Orlando's favour, and both teams scored in 90% of those meetings. In the 5 meetings at this ground, Orlando have won 3 and DC United have won 2, with no draws. The most recent meeting was a 3-2 DC United win in April 2026.
Orlando's home attack edges it
Orlando score 1.9 goals per home match, level with the league's home-side average. DC United score 1.2 goals per away match, marginally worse than the league's away-side average. The attack edge favours Orlando, but only marginally. Orlando's home scoring is consistent with their overall season rate of 1.9, while DC United's away rate of 1.2 is slightly below their overall 1.3.
DC United's away defence is tighter
DC United concede 1.6 goals per away match, marginally better than the league's away-side average. Orlando concede 1.4 goals per home match, level with the league's home-side average. The defence edge favours DC United, but only marginally. DC United's away defence is notably stronger than their overall season rate of 1.7 conceded per match, while Orlando's home defence is far better than their overall 2.4 conceded per match.
Orlando test the keeper more
Orlando average 4.69 shots on target per match, compared to DC United's 3.89. DC United see slightly more of their shots blocked, averaging 2.04 blocked shots per match to Orlando's 2.0. Orlando's higher shot-on-target rate reflects their greater attacking output, while DC United's lower rate is consistent with their more conservative approach.
Both sides peak in the final 15
Orlando score 30% of their goals between minutes 76-90, their most dangerous spell. DC United score 31% of their goals in that same window. DC United also concede 23% of their goals in each of 76-90 and 61-75, against 31% and 14% of the goals they score in those windows respectively. Orlando concede 23% of their goals in 76-90, against 30% of the goals they score in that window. Both attacks are most dangerous late, and both defences are vulnerable there.
Orlando's matches trend higher
Orlando's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75.86% of cases this season, while DC United's have done so in 60.71%. Orlando's matches also trend higher in the second half, with 68.97% going over 1.5 goals after the break, compared to 53.57% for DC United. Orlando's home matches average 3.21 combined goals, while DC United's away matches average 2.85. Both sides lean toward second-half goals, with Orlando's half-tempo lean at -13.8 and DC United's at -14.28.
Our read sits below the market
The market prices the total at 3.5 goals, with the over at 50%. Our model puts the over at 33.5%, about 17 percentage points below the market's read. That is a meaningful gap, and it reflects the season records at the relevant venues: Orlando's home matches have gone over 3.5 goals in 28.57% of cases, while DC United's away matches have done so in 38.46%.
A late-goal, high-scoring home lean
Orlando's home attack is marginally stronger, and their matches at Inter.co Stadium have trended toward goals, with 75.86% going over 2.5. DC United's away defence is marginally tighter than the league norm, but their attack is weaker on the road. Both sides score heavily in the final 15 minutes, and both concede there too. The market favours Orlando, and the data supports a home lean, with the total likely to be tested late.