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Schalke vs Mainz — Bundesliga 26/27

SAT, OCT 17VELTINS-Arena
0 – 1Half-time 0 – 1Full time
24'
Mainz: P. Tietz

Pre-match analysis, published Oct 15, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the Bundesliga page · Read the match report.

Standings & Form · Bundesliga 26/27

Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026

Mainz sit five places above Schalke in the table, 8th to 13th, with 7 points to Schalke's 5. The venue split is stark: Schalke have drawn both home matches without scoring, while Mainz have won both away matches with a goal difference of +6.

Schalke
Last 6 · all comps
Mainz
Last 6 · all comps
SCH20%Win Rate40%M05
SCH40%Loss Rate40%M05

Head-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS

1
M05 wins
3
draws
6
SCH wins

Schalke have dominated this fixture historically, winning 6 of the 10 meetings with 3 draws and just 1 Mainz win, across matches from 2017 to 2023. At this ground the record is even more one-sided: 4 Schalke wins and a draw in the 5 meetings here, with Mainz scoring just once.

Scoring Profile

Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026

Attack

Mainz hold a large attacking edge, scoring 4.5 goals per away match across 2 away matches against Schalke's 0.0 at home across 2 home matches. Mainz are well above the league's away-side average of 1.47, while Schalke are far below the home-side average of 2.36.

All venues
Home/AwaySCH home · M05 away

Goals Scored · Season

SCH0.82.6M05
SCH0.04.5M05

Failed to Score · Season

SCH60%20%M05
SCH100%0%M05

Attacking Share · Season

SCH40%57%M05
SCH—75%M05
NOT ENOUGH DATA TO COMPARE

Goals Scored · Last 5

SCH2.02.6M05
SCH0.66.2M05

Failed to Score · Last 5

SCH20%20%M05
SCH80%0%M05

Goals & Timing

Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026

Schalke's own scoring is spread thin, with 50% of their goals coming in the 16-30 minute band.

SchalkeMainz
0%
50%
0%
25%
0%
25%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
0%
15%
31%
8%
0%
46%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
SCH20%1st Half Lead %40%M05
SCH0%2nd Half Lead %40%M05

Goal Lines · Season 26/27

Pre-match · Oct 15, 2026

SCH ■M05 ■· Share of each team's matches over the line

Mainz's matches are far more goal-heavy, with 80% of their matches going over 2.5 goals against Schalke's 60%. The venue swing is dramatic for both: Schalke's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals 0% of the time against 100% away, while Mainz's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals 100% of the time against 67% at home.

SCH60%Over 0.580%M05
SCH60%Over 1.580%M05
SCH60%Over 2.580%M05
SCH20%Over 3.580%M05
SCH0%Over 4.560%M05
SCH0%Over 5.540%M05
2.00Combined Goals / G · FT · Season4.60

Betting Angles

Match Trends · Data-provider insights

  1. In the last 3 matches of the Bundesliga, Schalke conceded on average 1 goals per match while Mainz conceded on average 3.3 goals per match.

  2. In their last 5 Bundesliga matches, Schalke have been awarded an average of 2.8 corners per match, while Mainz have averaged 4.6 corners.

  3. Schalke struggle with scoring lately. They have averaged less than one goal per match in the last 5 Bundesliga matches.

  4. In the last 5 matches of the Bundesliga, Schalke scored 4 goals (average 0.8) while Mainz scored 13 (average 2.6).

  5. In their last 5 Bundesliga matches, Schalke have received an average of 0.2 cards in the first half per match, while Mainz have averaged 0.6 cards.

  6. Chances are good to see a goal from Mainz within the first half. They have averaged 1.2 goals before halftime in the Bundesliga this season.

  7. In their last 5 Bundesliga matches, Schalke have received an average of 1.2 cards per match, while Mainz have averaged 1.8 cards.

  8. The chances of seeing a goal from Schalke in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.4 goals before halftime in the Bundesliga matches this season.

  9. Schalke conceded 4 less goals than Mainz in the last 5 matches of the Bundesliga this season.

About The Match

Mainz arrive as the market's narrow favourite, priced at 42% to win, and the data points the same way: they have taken 7 points from their last five league matches to Schalke's 5, and their away attack has produced 4.5 goals per match across 2 away matches while Schalke have yet to score at home. The key uncertainty is Schalke's home defence, which has conceded nothing across 2 home matches but rests on a tiny sample, and the head-to-head history that heavily favours Schalke, with 6 wins in 10 meetings.