UEFA Champions League 26/27 · Round 3 ·
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid preview: Stuttgart host Atletico in a meeting of contrasting early-season starts
Stuttgart arrive at the MHP Arena with a perfect start to the season, while Atletico carry the market's favour despite a mixed opening. The clearest early signal is Stuttgart's attacking edge at home, where they have scored three goals across one home match.
By 10xSharp · Published
Absences hit both midfields
Stuttgart are without six players, including forwards Tiago Tomas and Justin Diehl and defenders Maximilian Mittelstadt, Ameen Al-Dakhil and Dan Zagadou, all listed as injury. Atletico have three midfielders unavailable: Johnny Cardoso with illness, Koke with injury and Obed Vargas listed as unavailable. Neither side's leading scorers are among the absentees, so the attacking output each has produced so far remains intact.
Demirovic leads the scoring chart
Ermedin Demirovic has carried Stuttgart's attack with 4 goals in 2 matches, a 67% share of their total in this competition. Deniz Undav adds one goal. For Atletico, the scoring is spread across three players: Ademola Lookman, Pablo Barrios and Marcos Llorente each have one goal, a third of their team's total. No Atletico player has yet matched Demirovic's individual output.
Atletico's winning run meets Stuttgart's home form
Stuttgart have won both league matches so far, taking 6 points and sitting 4th in the form table. Atletico have 3 points from a win and a loss, placing them 15th. Across their last six matches in all competitions, Atletico have won all six, while Stuttgart have won four and lost two. Stuttgart have also won their last two at home.
Stuttgart's perfect start against Atletico's split
Stuttgart sit 4th with 6 points from two matches, while Atletico are 15th with 3 points. At home, Stuttgart have won their only match with a goal difference of 2. Atletico have lost their only away match, with a goal difference of -1. The gap between the two sides is three points after two rounds.
One meeting, one draw
These clubs have met once, in 2018, and that meeting ended 1-1. The sample is a single match from eight years ago, so it offers little guidance for this fixture. Both teams scored in that meeting, and the average total goals was 2.0.
Stuttgart's home edge is clear
Stuttgart score 3.0 goals per home match, better than the league average for a home side at home, while Atletico manage 1.0 goals per away match, worse than the league average for an away side on the road. The attack edge favours Stuttgart by a large margin. Stuttgart's home figure is built on a single match, so it remains an early signal rather than a settled rate.
Both defences start better than average
Stuttgart concede 1.0 goals per home match, better than the league average conceded by a home side at home, while Atletico concede 2.0 goals per away match, also better than the league average conceded by an away side on the road. The defence edge favours Stuttgart, but only marginally. Both figures come from one match each, so the comparison is thin.
Stuttgart test the goalkeeper more
Stuttgart average 5.5 shots on goal per match, compared with 4.0 for Atletico. Stuttgart also see more of their shots blocked, at 3.5 per match against 1.0 for Atletico. Stuttgart's higher shot volume on target and blocked shots both point to a more active attacking approach.
Stuttgart strike early, Atletico spread it out
Stuttgart score half of their goals between minutes 16 and 30, their clear peak scoring window. Atletico's goals are spread across the opening 15 minutes, the 16-30 window and the final 15 minutes, with no single dominant band. Stuttgart have scored first in both matches, while Atletico have also scored first in both of theirs.
Stuttgart's matches trend higher
Across all venues this season, 100% of Stuttgart's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while Atletico's matches have gone over 2.5 in 50% of cases. Stuttgart's home matches have averaged 4.0 combined goals, against 3.0 for Atletico's away matches. Stuttgart's first-half over 1.5 rate is 50%, matching Atletico's, but Atletico's second-half over 1.5 rate is 0%.
Stuttgart's home edge against Atletico's market favour
Stuttgart's perfect start and strong home attacking numbers give them a clear edge in the underlying data, but the market prices Atletico as the more likely winner. Atletico's six-match winning run in all competitions is the strongest recent form signal on either side. The match shapes up as a test of whether Stuttgart's early-season home production can overcome Atletico's momentum and market standing.