MLS 2026 ·
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC preview: Philadelphia host Charlotte with the season's hottest attack
Philadelphia welcome Charlotte to Subaru Park on the back of six straight wins, the clearest form signal anywhere in this fixture. The home side's second-half scoring and home defence are the two edges that shape the read, while Charlotte arrive with a marginal attacking edge of their own.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Philadelphia are without forward Agustin Anello to injury, a minor loss given he has scored just 1 goal, 2% of the side's goals in this competition. Charlotte's list is longer: midfielders Abdoulaye Doucoure and Aron John are unavailable, and forwards Archie Goodwin and Nimfasha Berchimas are out injured. Goodwin's absence removes 3 goals, 6% of Charlotte's goals in this competition, the more significant miss.
Players to watch
Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 18 goals in 29 matches, 31% of the team's goals in this competition, and sits third in the scoring chart. Charlotte's attack is shared: Idan Gorno and Pep Biel each have 12 goals, 24% of the team's goals, with Biel adding 7 assists. Philadelphia's supporting cast is deeper, with Bruno Damiani on 11 goals and Cavan Sullivan on 7.
Form and momentum
Philadelphia arrive in the best form in the league, top of the form table with 18 points from their last six matches, all wins. Charlotte are ninth in the form table with 10 points from their last six, a record of three wins, one draw and two losses. Philadelphia have scored 23 goals and conceded 7 across those six matches, while Charlotte have scored 11 and conceded 11. Both sides have played twice in the last 14 days, with identical rest of 2.8 days since their last match.
Table position and venue records
Charlotte sit ninth with 46 points, one point ahead of Philadelphia in 11th with 45. At home Philadelphia are 7-4-3 with a goal difference of plus 11, while Charlotte are 5-3-6 away with a goal difference of minus 5. Philadelphia's home record is the stronger of the two venue splits, and Charlotte's away form is the weaker side of their season.
Head to head
Across 10 meetings since 2022, Philadelphia have won 4, Charlotte have won 4, and 2 have been drawn. The goals are 13-9 in Charlotte's favour. At Subaru Park the record is clearer: Philadelphia have won 4 of the 5 meetings at this ground, with Charlotte winning 1, and the goals are 6-3 to Philadelphia. The most recent meeting, in April 2026, went to Charlotte 2-1 at their place.
Attacking edge
Charlotte hold a marginal attacking edge, scoring 1.6 goals per away match against a league average of 1.4 for an away side on the road. Philadelphia score 1.8 goals per home match, level with the league average of 1.86 for a home side at home. Across the whole season Philadelphia average 2.0 goals per match and Charlotte 1.8, both better than the league average per team of 1.63.
Defensive solidity
Philadelphia hold a clear defensive edge, conceding 1.0 goals per home match against a league average of 1.4 for a home side at home. Charlotte concede 1.9 goals per away match, level with the league average of 1.86 for an away side on the road. Philadelphia have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 home matches, Charlotte 2 in 14 away matches.
Shots on target and blocked
Philadelphia work the opposing goalkeeper harder, averaging 5.24 shots on target per match to Charlotte's 4.31. Philadelphia also see more of their shots blocked, 3.21 per match against Charlotte's 1.79. Philadelphia's higher shot volume on target is the more meaningful edge, but Charlotte's lower blocked rate suggests cleaner shooting lanes.
When goals arrive
Philadelphia are most dangerous between minutes 61 and 75, scoring 29% of their goals in that window, and they score 69% of their goals in the second half. Charlotte's peak scoring window is minutes 16 to 30, with 22% of their goals. Philadelphia concede most in minutes 16 to 30, 24% of their goals against, while Charlotte concede most in minutes 76 to 90, 21% of their goals against.
Goal environment
Both sides produce high-scoring matches: 69% of Philadelphia's matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, and 69% of Charlotte's have too. Philadelphia's matches are back-loaded, with 38% producing 2+ goals before half time against 66% after it. Charlotte's matches are more balanced, with 48% producing 2+ goals before half time and 55% after it. Philadelphia's home matches average 2.79 combined goals, Charlotte's away matches 3.5.
Total goals read
The market prices the total at 3.25 goals, with the over at 52.6%. Our model puts the over at 43.1%, about 9.5 percentage points below the market's. That is a modest difference, suggesting our season-record read sees slightly fewer goals than the market expects.
How this shapes up
Philadelphia's six-match winning run and clear defensive edge at home make them the stronger side on paper, and the market agrees, pricing them as clear favourites. Charlotte's marginal attacking edge and Philadelphia's back-loaded scoring suggest the match could open up after the break. Philadelphia's second-half dominance is the single clearest signal, and it points to the home side pulling away late. Charlotte's away defence, level with the league average, will need to hold firm early to stay in the match.