Bundesliga 26/27 · Round 6 ·
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart preview: Hamburg host Stuttgart with both sides chasing form
Hamburg welcome Stuttgart to the Volksparkstadion with both clubs level on six points after five matches. The market makes Stuttgart a clear favourite at 54%, and their sharper attack and far tighter defence support that read.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Hamburg are without midfielder Albert Gronbaek, their leading assister with two, and forward Patson Daka, both listed as injury. Stuttgart have four players unavailable: defenders Dan Zagadou and Ameen Al-Dakhil plus forwards Tiago Tomas and Justin Diehl, all injury. The key absence is Gronbaek, who had set up two of Hamburg's five league goals this season. Stuttgart's unavailable list removes no player in their top two scorers or assisters.
Players to watch
Yussuf Poulsen leads Hamburg with two goals in four matches, 40% of their league total. Defender Miro Muheim has one goal and one assist in a single appearance. For Stuttgart, defender Josha Vagnoman has two goals in five matches, a 25% share, with Bilal El Khannouss and Ermedin Demirovic on one each. Angelo Stiller has two assists for the visitors.
Recent form
Both sides have taken six points from their last five league matches, with identical 2W-0D-3L records. Hamburg have won their last two, while Stuttgart have won their last four in all competitions. Stuttgart's recent run includes four clean sheets in their last six matches, conceding three goals, while Hamburg have conceded fifteen in the same span. Stuttgart also arrive with 2.8 days' rest since their last match, while Hamburg have had seven.
Where they stand
Hamburg sit 12th with six points, Stuttgart 11th with the same total. At home Hamburg have one win and one loss from two matches, with a goal difference of minus four. Stuttgart away have one win and two losses from three, with a goal difference of minus three. Neither side has drawn a match this season.
Head to head
Across ten meetings, Stuttgart have won five to Hamburg's three, with two draws. The average total goals is 4.0, and both teams scored in 80% of those matches. In the five meetings at this ground, Hamburg have won three, Stuttgart one, with one draw. The most recent meeting was a 4-0 Stuttgart win in April 2026.
Attacking edge
Stuttgart hold a clear attacking edge. Hamburg average 1.0 goals per home match, well below the league's home-side average of 2.36. Stuttgart average 1.3 goals per away match, marginally below the league's away-side average of 1.47. Across the whole season, Hamburg score 1.0 per match and Stuttgart 1.6.
Defensive edge
Stuttgart hold a large defensive edge. Hamburg concede 3.0 goals per home match, far worse than the league's home-side average of 1.47. Stuttgart concede 2.3 goals per away match, level with the league's away-side average of 2.36. Across the whole season, Hamburg concede 3.0 per match and Stuttgart 1.8.
Shot efficiency
Stuttgart work the goalkeeper harder, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match to Hamburg's 3.4. Stuttgart also see more shots blocked, 2.6 per match against Hamburg's 1.8. Stuttgart average 4.2 shots off target to Hamburg's 2.8.
When goals arrive
Hamburg score 40% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, their clear peak. Stuttgart score 38% in both the 46-60 and 76-90 windows, equally dangerous in each. Hamburg concede 27% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, against 40% of their own scoring in that window. Stuttgart concede 33% in the same late window, against 38% of their scoring there.
Goal environment
Hamburg's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of all venues this season, and 100% of their home matches have gone over 2.5, against 67% of their away matches. Stuttgart's matches have gone over 2.5 in 60% of all venues. Hamburg's first half has gone over 1.5 goals in 80% of matches, while Stuttgart's first half has gone over 1.5 in 0%.
The verdict
Stuttgart arrive as the sharper side on both sides of the ball, with a clear attacking edge and a large defensive one. Hamburg's home matches have been high-scoring, but their defence has conceded three goals per home match. The market's total line of 3.5 leans under at 52%. Expect Stuttgart to control the match, with Hamburg's late scoring threat their most likely route to a goal.