10xSharp

Troyes vs Marseille — Ligue 1 26/27

SUN, OCT 11Stade de l'Aube
0 – 2Half-time 0 – 0Full time
50'
Marseille: A. Harit
90+8' (Pen)
Marseille: H. Abdelli

Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 6:39 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the Ligue 1 page · Read the match report.

Standings & Form · Ligue 1 26/27

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Troyes sit 16th with 4 points and Marseille 17th with 3, so the table barely separates them. At home Troyes have no wins from two matches, while Marseille have lost both away matches without scoring, leaving both sides without a venue record to lean on.

Troyes
Last 6 · all comps
Marseille
Last 6 · all comps
EST20%Win Rate20%OLM
EST60%Loss Rate80%OLM

Head-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS

7
OLM wins
2
draws
1
EST wins

Marseille have dominated this fixture historically, winning 7 of the 10 meetings with 2 draws and only 1 Troyes win. The most recent meeting was in 2023, and at Troyes' ground Marseille have won 2 of 5 meetings with 2 draws, so the visitors hold a clear edge in the head-to-head record.

Scoring Profile

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Attack

Troyes hold a large attacking edge despite modest numbers, scoring 1.0 goals per home match across 2 home matches while Marseille have failed to score in either away match. Troyes are clearly worse than the league's home average, but Marseille's away output is far below the league's away norm, making this a battle of two underperforming attacks.

All venues
Home/AwayEST home · OLM away

Goals Scored · Season

EST0.81.4OLM
EST1.00.0OLM

Failed to Score · Season

EST60%40%OLM
EST50%100%OLM

Attacking Share · Season

EST27%47%OLM
EST25%0%OLM

Goals Scored · Last 5

EST0.80.8OLM
EST2.21.4OLM

Failed to Score · Last 5

EST60%40%OLM
EST20%40%OLM

Goals & Timing

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Troyes are most vulnerable late, conceding 36% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Marseille are equally dangerous across the 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90 windows at 29% each. Marseille's scoring is heavily back-loaded, with 85.71% of their goals coming after half-time, so the match could open up late.

TroyesMarseille
25%
25%
25%
0%
0%
25%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
14%
0%
0%
29%
29%
29%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
EST20%1st Half Lead %0%OLM
EST0%2nd Half Lead %40%OLM

Goal Lines · Season 26/27

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

EST ■OLM ■· Share of each team's matches over the line

Troyes' matches have been low-scoring overall, with 40% going over 2.5 goals, but at home that rises to 50% across 2 home matches. Marseille's away matches have been even tighter, with 0% over 2.5 goals in their two away matches, so the season goal environment points to a low-scoring affair.

EST80%Over 0.5100%OLM
EST80%Over 1.580%OLM
EST40%Over 2.560%OLM
EST20%Over 3.540%OLM
EST20%Over 4.520%OLM
EST20%Over 5.50%OLM
3.00Combined Goals / G · FT · Season3.00

Betting Angles

Match Trends · Data-provider insights

  1. In the last 3 matches of the Ligue 1, Troyes conceded on average 3.3 goals per match while Marseille conceded on average 2 goals per match.

  2. In their last 5 Ligue 1 matches, Troyes have received an average of 0.8 cards per match, while Marseille have averaged 2 cards.

  3. Troyes struggle with scoring lately. They have averaged less than one goal per match in the last 5 Ligue 1 matches.

  4. In the last 5 matches of the Ligue 1, Troyes scored 4 goals (average 0.8) while Marseille scored 7 (average 1.4).

  5. The chances of seeing a goal from Marseille in the first half are slim. They have only averaged 0.2 goals before halftime in the Ligue 1 matches this season.

  6. In their last 5 Ligue 1 matches, Troyes have received an average of 0.4 cards in the first half per match, while Marseille have averaged 0.6 cards.

  7. In their last 3 Ligue 1 matches, Troyes have been awarded an average of 5.3 corners per match, while Marseille have averaged 4.3 corners.

  8. Marseille conceded 3 less goals than Troyes in the last 5 matches of the Ligue 1 this season.

  9. Chances are good to see a goal from Troyes within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the Ligue 1 this season.

About The Match

Troyes and Marseille meet with both sides winless in their recent league matches, but the market still prices Marseille as the clear favourite at 49% to win. The most telling split is in attack: Troyes average 1.0 goals per home match while Marseille have yet to score away from home this season, a gap that flatters the hosts despite their thin sample. The key uncertainty is whether Marseille's away scoring drought is real or a product of just two matches on the road.