Montreal vs Charlotte — MLS 2026

Charlotte sit 10th with 36 points, far above Montreal's 29th place and 21 points, but the home/away split flatters Montreal: their home goal difference is +2 while Charlotte's away goal difference is -5. Montreal's home record of 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses shows a side that is hard to beat at home but rarely wins, while Charlotte's away record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses is less convincing than their overall position.

Montreal29th

21 pts · 5-6-13GD -19 · 31:50

Home 3-5-4GF:GA 16:15

Last 6 · all comps

League form · 5 pts · 24th

Charlotte9th

39 pts · 11-6-7GD +9 · 42:33

Away 4-2-5GF:GA 16:20

Last 6 · all comps

League form · 14 pts · 2nd

Charlotte arrive in much better shape, taking 11 points from their last six league matches against Montreal's 6, and their form rank of 6th is far above Montreal's 22nd. Montreal's latest result was a loss and they have gone three league games without a win, while Charlotte are unbeaten in their last five.

MTL play at home, CLT away — the “Home/Away” rows use that split.

Recent rows count each side's last matches in any competition — MLS matches by sample: Last 5 — MTL 4 of 5, CLT 5 of 5; Last 5, Home/Away — MTL 5 of 5, CLT 5 of 5.

Charlotte convert chances far more efficiently than Montreal, with a 39.2% conversion rate against Montreal's 26.5%, and the league average is 35.47%. Montreal's low conversion rate undercuts their home scoring, while Charlotte's high rate flatters their away goal total.

Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes: Montreal score 23.33% of their goals and concede 29.17% in the 76-90 band, while Charlotte score 20% and concede 25% there. Montreal's second-half leakiness is a clear pattern, and Charlotte's late-game vulnerability is less pronounced.

Montreal's home matches are low-scoring, with only 45.45% going over 2.5 goals, while Charlotte's away matches are higher-scoring at 60% over 2.5. Montreal's home games average 2.55 combined goals against Charlotte's 3.3 away, and both teams have a consistent trend versus their season over-rate.

Based on Montreal's 11 home games and Charlotte's 10 away games this season

The total-goals market prices over 3 goals at 51%, while our model puts it at 41%, a difference of about 9 percentage points. Our read is lower than the market's, suggesting the season records point to fewer goals than the market expects.

The Match Trends below are sampled over a different time window than the Match Forecast above — read them side by side, not as matching figures.

1. 01In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Montreal conceded on average 3.6 goals per match while Charlotte conceded on average 0.3 goals per match.
2. 02Charlotte seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
3. 03In their last 3 MLS matches, Montreal have been awarded an average of 4.3 corners per match, while Charlotte have averaged 6.3 corners.
4. 04Charlotte conceded 8 less goals than Montreal in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
5. 05In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Charlotte have averaged 0.6 cards.
6. 06In their last 5 MLS matches, Montreal have received an average of 2.6 cards per match, while Charlotte have averaged 2.2 cards.
7. 07Chances are good to see a goal from Montreal within the first half. They have averaged 0.6 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.

Montreal's season has split sharply by venue: at home they are hard to beat but rarely win, while Charlotte arrive as the better side overall and in form. The market prices Montreal as a narrow favourite at 41% to win, with Charlotte at 34% and the draw at 25%, yet the total-goals model sees fewer goals than the market expects, with our read at 41% for over 3 goals against the market's 51%. The key uncertainty is whether Montreal's home draws and Charlotte's away resilience produce another tight, low-scoring game.