Bundesliga 26/27 · Round 6 ·
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 preview: Bremen host Paderborn with home form the clearest signal
Bremen arrive at the Weserstadion unbeaten at home this season, while Paderborn are yet to score a single goal on the road. The market prices the hosts at 53% to win, but the sharper contrast is in attack, where Bremen's home output dwarfs Paderborn's away record.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Injuries hit both squads
Bremen have eight players listed as unavailable, all through injury, including forwards Keke Topp, Justin Njinmah and Salim Musah plus midfielders Jens Stage, Senne Lynen and Skelly Alvero. Paderborn are missing six, with midfielder Bennit Broger listed as unavailable and defenders Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant and Marcel Hoffmeier among those out through injury. Neither side's top scorer is on the unavailable list, so the leading attacking figures remain available for this match.
Fullkrug leads Bremen's attack
Niclas Fullkrug has scored 4 goals in 5 matches this season, which is 40% of Bremen's goals in this competition. Marco Grull adds 2 goals and leads the side with 4 assists, making him the most productive creator on either team. For Paderborn, Steffen Tigges, Stefano Marino and Santiago Castaneda have each scored once, sharing the team's 3 goals between them. Jonah Sticker and Laurin Curda have one assist apiece, a thin creative base compared with Bremen's output.
Bremen hold the form edge
Bremen sit 7th in the form table with 8 points from their last five league matches, while Paderborn are 15th with 4 points from the same window. Bremen's latest result was a draw, and they have won their last two home matches. Paderborn lost their most recent match and have failed to score in four of their last six matches in all competitions. Bremen have had 7.8 days since their last match and Paderborn 7.0, so rest is nearly identical.
Bremen's home record is the difference
Bremen are 7th with 8 points and Paderborn are 15th with 4 points after five matches each. At home, Bremen have won both matches with a goal difference of 3, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Paderborn away have no wins, one draw and one loss, with a goal difference of -3 and no goals scored. The gap in points is four, but the venue split is where the contrast is sharpest.
Bremen lead a high-scoring history
Across 9 meetings from 2012 to 2024, Bremen have won 4, Paderborn 3, with 2 draws. The matches have averaged 3.89 goals, and both teams scored in 66.7% of them. Bremen have scored 20 goals in those meetings and Paderborn 15. The most recent meeting was in October 2024, outside this competition, and Bremen won it 1-0.
Bremen's home attack is far sharper
Bremen score 3.0 goals per home match across 2 home matches, which is clearly better than the league average for a home side at home of 2.36. Paderborn score 0.0 goals per away match across 2 away matches, a large shortfall against the league average of 1.47 for an away side on the road. The attack edge favours Bremen by a large margin. Across the whole season, Bremen average 2.0 goals per match and Paderborn 0.6.
Paderborn's away defence holds firm
Paderborn concede 1.5 goals per away match across 2 away matches, which is clearly better than the league average of 2.36 conceded by an away side on the road. Bremen concede 1.5 goals per home match across 2 home matches, level with the league average of 1.47 for a home side. The defence edge favours Paderborn by a clear margin. Across the season, Paderborn concede 1.4 per match and Bremen 2.0.
Bremen test the keeper far more
Bremen average 4.4 shots on target per match, nearly double Paderborn's 2.4. Paderborn see more of their shots blocked, at 4.0 per match against Bremen's 2.6. Paderborn hold more possession at 50.0% to Bremen's 44.2%, but that control has not translated into shots on target. Bremen's higher volume of efforts on goal is the clearest efficiency signal here.
Bremen strike late, Paderborn leak late
Bremen score 60% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, their unique peak scoring band. Paderborn's unique peak conceding band is also 76-90, where they concede 43% of their goals, against 0% of the goals they score in that window. Bremen also concede 30% of their goals in both 76-90 and 46-60, a shared peak. Paderborn's scoring is spread across 16-30, 31-45 and 61-75, with no single dominant window.
Bremen's matches trend over, Paderborn's under
Across all venues this season, 80% of Bremen's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while only 40% of Paderborn's have. Bremen's second halves are far more open, with 80% of their matches going over 1.5 goals in the second half, against 20% in the first. Paderborn's second-half over 1.5 rate is 40%, double their first-half rate of 20%. Bremen's home matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, against 67% of their away matches.
Home attack meets away resilience
Bremen's home scoring is the strongest single force in this match, while Paderborn's away defence has been genuinely solid. The likely shape is Bremen pressing late, given their 76-90 minute scoring peak and Paderborn's vulnerability in that same window. Paderborn's failure to score away from home is the biggest obstacle to their chances. The market's total line of 3.0 leans slightly to the over, but Paderborn's low-scoring away record pulls against that.