LaLiga 26/27 · Round 9 ·
Valencia CF vs Athletic Bilbao preview: Valencia host Bilbao with contrasting form on show
Valencia welcome Bilbao to Mestalla with the visitors holding a clear edge across attack, defence and recent results. Bilbao's away defence has conceded 1.0 goals per match, while Valencia's home attack has managed just 0.5, a gap that shapes the whole preview.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats.
Injuries hit both attacks
Valencia are without three forwards through injury: Sergi Canos, Umar Sadiq and Diego Lopez. Umar Sadiq, who is unavailable, has scored 1 goal, 17% of the side's goals in this competition. Bilbao miss midfielder Oihan Sancet and forward Nico Williams, both injured. Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams, all unavailable, have scored 2 goals between them, 29% of the side's goals in this competition. The absences remove a larger share of Bilbao's scoring output, but Valencia's thinner squad feels the loss of three forwards more acutely.
Navarro leads the scoring threat
Bilbao's Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 6 matches, 29% of his side's goals in this competition, and ranks 21st in the scoring chart. Valencia's Daniel Raba has 1 goal in 2 matches, 17% of the team's total, and sits 43rd. Inaki Williams has provided 2 assists for Bilbao, while Valencia's Javier Guerra Moreno also has 2 assists. Navarro is the most reliable attacking outlet on either side, and he is available.
Bilbao arrive in far better shape
Bilbao have taken 8 points from their last six league matches, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, and they are 7th in the form table. Valencia have managed only 4 points from the same window, with 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, leaving them 18th. Bilbao are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, while Valencia have lost five of their last six at home. Valencia have had six days since their last match and Bilbao seven, so neither side has a rest advantage.
Bilbao hold a comfortable cushion
Valencia sit 19th with 5 points from 8 matches, while Bilbao are 10th with 8 points from 6. At home Valencia have 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with a goal difference of -7. Bilbao away have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss, with a goal difference of 0. Valencia's home record is among the weakest in the league, and they have failed to win any of their four matches at Mestalla.
Bilbao have dominated recent meetings
Across the last 10 meetings, Bilbao have won 6 times, Valencia 3, with 1 draw, and the goal difference is 12-9 in Bilbao's favour. In the 6 meetings at this ground, Bilbao have won 4 and Valencia 2, with no draws. The most recent meeting was in May 2026, when Valencia won 1-0 at Bilbao, but Bilbao have won 3 of the last 5 meetings overall.
Bilbao's away attack edges Valencia's home
Bilbao score 1.0 goals per away match, while Valencia manage just 0.5 at home. Bilbao hold a clear attacking edge. Valencia's home figure is worse than the league average for a home side, a large gap, while Bilbao's away figure is only marginally worse than the league average for an away side. Valencia have failed to score in 3 of their 4 home matches, while Bilbao have scored in 1 of their 2 away matches.
Bilbao's away defence is far stronger
Bilbao concede 1.0 goals per away match, while Valencia concede 2.2 at home. Bilbao hold a large defensive edge. Bilbao's away figure is better than the league average conceded by an away side, a clear gap, while Valencia's home figure is worse than the league average conceded by a home side, a large gap. Valencia have kept just 1 clean sheet in 4 home matches, while Bilbao have kept 1 in 2 away matches.
Bilbao test goalkeepers more often
Bilbao average 4.5 shots on target per match, while Valencia manage 2.75. Both sides see 2.5 of their shots blocked per match. Bilbao also average 5.67 shots off target to Valencia's 3.38, and they hold more possession at 52.33% against 47.25%. Bilbao's greater shot volume, especially on target, gives them a clearer route to goal.
Both sides score late
Valencia's peak scoring window is 76-90 minutes, with 33% of their goals, and they also concede 33% of their goals in that same window. Bilbao's scoring is spread across 16-30, 46-60 and 76-90, each with 29%. Bilbao's main vulnerability is 46-60, where they concede 50% of their goals, against 29% of their goals scored in that window. Valencia score their first goal around minute 41 on average, while Bilbao wait until minute 54.
Valencia's matches trend higher
Across all venues, 50% of Valencia's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while only 33% of Bilbao's have. Valencia's matches average 2.62 combined goals per game, compared to 2.17 for Bilbao. Bilbao's home matches are the higher-scoring ones: 50% of their home games go over 2.5 goals versus 0% of their away games. Valencia's matches are evenly split between halves, while Bilbao's are back-loaded, with 17% producing 2+ goals before half time versus 50% after it.
Bilbao look the likelier winners
Bilbao's stronger away defence and Valencia's weak home attack point to a low-scoring match, but Valencia's tendency to concede late and Bilbao's second-half scoring could open things up. Bilbao's form and head-to-head record give them the edge, while Valencia's home struggles make an away win the most probable outcome. Expect Bilbao to control possession and create more chances, with Valencia relying on set pieces or a late push. The market prices Bilbao as the favourite, and the stats support that read.