MLS 2026 ·
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC preview: San Jose host Nashville in a clash of contrasting league positions
San Jose welcome Nashville to PayPal Park with the visitors sitting top of the table and the hosts eighth. The sharpest signal is Nashville's away defence, which concedes just 0.7 goals per match on the road.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
San Jose are without three players for this match. Midfielder Jonathan Gonzalez, forward Nonso Adimabua and defender DeJuan Jones are all out through injury. None of those three are among San Jose's leading scorers or assisters this season. Nashville have one absence, with defender Owen Presthus ruled out through injury. Presthus has not been among Nashville's top scorers or assisters this season.
Key attacking threats
Preston Judd has carried San Jose's attack this season with 15 goals in 27 matches, which is 29% of the team's goals. Timo Werner and Ousseni Bouda have each added six goals. For Nashville, Sam Surridge leads the way with 17 goals in 23 matches, a 27% share of the team's goals. Hany Mukhtar has contributed 15 goals and eight assists, making him the most productive player across both scoring and creating.
Recent momentum
Nashville arrive in the stronger recent form, taking 13 points from their last six league matches compared with 12 for San Jose. Nashville's latest result was a win, while San Jose's most recent match ended in a draw. San Jose are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions, and Nashville are unbeaten in their last five. Both sides played three days ago, so neither has a rest advantage.
Table positions and venue records
Nashville sit first in the table with 66 points from 29 matches, while San Jose are eighth with 47 points. At home, San Jose have won six, drawn three and lost five of their 14 matches. On the road, Nashville have won six, drawn five and lost three of their 14 away matches. Nashville's away record is the stronger of the two venue splits.
Recent meetings
These two clubs have met four times, all in this competition, and every meeting has ended in a draw. The most recent meeting was in April 2024, which also finished level. Across those four matches, both teams scored in 75% of them and the average total goals was 2.0. The history is now two years old.
Attacking output
San Jose score 1.8 goals per match at home, which is level with the league average for a home side. Nashville score 1.3 goals per match away from home, also level with the league average for an away side. Across all venues, Nashville's attack is the more productive, averaging 2.2 goals per match compared with San Jose's 1.8.
Defensive solidity
Nashville's away defence is the standout unit here, conceding just 0.7 goals per match on the road, which is well better than the league average for an away side. San Jose concede 1.6 goals per match at home, marginally worse than the league average for a home side. Nashville hold a large defensive edge in this matchup.
Shots on target and blocked shots
San Jose average 5.03 shots on target per match, slightly more than Nashville's 4.93. San Jose also see more of their shots blocked, at 2.17 per match compared with Nashville's 2.03. The two sides are closely matched on both measures, with no meaningful gap in shot volume.
When goals arrive
San Jose are most dangerous in the opening 15 minutes, scoring 24% of their goals in that window. Nashville's peak scoring period is the final 15 minutes, where they score 27% of their goals. Defensively, San Jose are most vulnerable late, conceding 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Nashville concede 32% of their goals in the 61-75 minute window.
Goal environment
Across the whole season, 55% of San Jose's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while 62% of Nashville's matches have done so. Nashville's home matches are the higher-scoring ones, with 80% going over 2.5 goals compared with 43% of their away matches. San Jose's matches average 3.17 total goals per match, slightly higher than Nashville's 2.93.
Total goals read
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals, with the over at 52%. Our model puts the probability of over 3.0 goals at 43%, which sits about 9 percentage points below the market's read. That is a modest difference, suggesting our season record points to slightly fewer goals than the market is pricing.
Match outlook
Nashville's away defence is the clearest signal in this preview, conceding just 0.7 goals per match on the road. San Jose's home attack is level with the league average, so the hosts may find chances hard to come by. Nashville's recent form is also the stronger of the two. The total goals line of 3.0 looks slightly high based on our season record.