UEFA Champions League 26/27 · Round 3 ·
Sabah Masazir vs Borussia Dortmund preview: Sabah Masazir host Dortmund with the visitors heavily favoured
Sabah Masazir welcome Dortmund to the Baku Olympic Stadium with the market pricing the away side as a strong favourite at 75%. The home team's recent form and defensive record at this venue offer a counterpoint, but the sample is only two matches old.
By 10xSharp · Published
Who is missing
Dortmund are without three midfielders: Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias and Justin Lerma are all listed as injury absentees. None of them is among the club's leading scorers this season, so the absence does not remove a primary goal threat. Sabah Masazir have no unavailable players listed.
Players to watch
Serhou Guirassy has scored 2 of Dortmund's 3 goals in this competition this season, a 67% share, and is the clear focal point of their attack. For Sabah Masazir, Kaheem Parris and Joy-Lance Mickels have each scored 1 goal in 2 matches, splitting the team's output evenly.
Recent form
Both teams have taken 3 points from their last two league matches, with Sabah Masazir winning their most recent and Dortmund losing theirs. Sabah Masazir are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions, while Dortmund are winless in three. Sabah Masazir have also won their last four matches at this venue.
Where they stand
Sabah Masazir sit 22nd with 3 points from 2 matches, while Dortmund are 18th with the same points total. At home, Sabah Masazir have won 1 of 1 with a goal difference of +2; away, Dortmund have lost their only match with a goal difference of -1.
Head to head
These two clubs have never met before, so there is no head-to-head history to draw on for this fixture.
Attacking threat
Sabah Masazir average 2.0 goals per home match, while Dortmund have scored 0.0 goals per away match. Against the league, Sabah Masazir's home scoring is marginally worse than the average home side, while Dortmund's away scoring is worse by a large margin. Sabah Masazir hold a large attacking edge.
Defensive solidity
Sabah Masazir have conceded 0.0 goals per home match, while Dortmund have conceded 1.0 per away match. Both are better than the league average for their respective venues, with Sabah Masazir's home defence rated a large improvement and Dortmund's away defence also large. Sabah Masazir hold a clear defensive edge.
Shot efficiency
Sabah Masazir average 6.1 shots on target per match compared to Dortmund's 5.0. Dortmund see more of their shots blocked, averaging 4.0 blocked shots per match against Sabah Masazir's 2.5.
When goals come
Sabah Masazir score 25% of their goals in both the 61-75 and 76-90 minute windows, making them equally dangerous late in the match. Dortmund score 67% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window. Sabah Masazir concede 36% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, against 15% of their goals scored in that same period.
Goal environment
Across all venues, 50% of Sabah Masazir's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the same rate as Dortmund's. Sabah Masazir's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 0% of cases, while their away matches have gone over in 100%. Dortmund's home matches have gone over in 100% of cases, while their away matches have gone over in 0%.
The verdict
The market prices Dortmund as a 75% favourite to win, and their superior squad depth and recent European pedigree support that. Sabah Masazir's home form and defensive record at this venue are strong but rest on a single match. The most likely shape is a Dortmund win, with the total goals line set at 3.5 and leaning under.