MLS 2026 ·
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes preview: Salt Lake host San Jose in a clash of contrasting form
Salt Lake welcome San Jose to America First Field with the visitors sitting 13 places higher in the table and unbeaten in their last seven matches. The clearest signal is San Jose's away attack, which scores 1.8 goals per match on the road, a full 0.4 above the league average for away sides.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Salt Lake are without three players, including midfielder Diego Luna, who has scored 5 goals this season and is one of their key absences. Forward Ariath Piol and defender Justen Glad are also out with injuries. Diego Luna and Ariath Piol have scored 6 goals between them, 15% of the side's goals in this competition. San Jose have just one absentee, defender DeJuan Jones, who is out with an injury. The visitors' squad is otherwise intact, with no key scorers or creators missing.
Who carries the attack
For Salt Lake, forward Sergi Solans leads the scoring with 11 goals in 26 matches, accounting for 27% of the team's goals in this competition. He is the clear focal point, with no other available player above 5 goals. San Jose's Preston Judd has been more prolific, netting 15 goals in 26 matches, a 30% share of his side's goals and seventh in the scoring chart. Timo Werner and Ousseni Bouda add 6 each, giving the visitors a deeper attacking core.
Who arrives in better shape
San Jose are in far better form, taking 12 points from their last six matches with a 3W-3D-0L record, while Salt Lake have managed just 3 points from the same window with 1W-0D-5L. San Jose are unbeaten in their last seven matches overall and unbeaten in their last four away matches. Salt Lake have lost five of their last six, with three of those defeats coming without scoring. Both teams drew their most recent match, but the momentum is clearly with the visitors.
Where they sit
San Jose sit 8th with 46 points, while Salt Lake are 21st with 32 points, a gap reflected in their home and away records. Salt Lake have been strong at home with 8 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, but poor on the road with just 1 win. San Jose have been more balanced, with 7 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses away from home. The visitors' away goal difference of +7 contrasts sharply with Salt Lake's home goal difference of +7, though the hosts' overall goal difference is -5.
Recent history
Across their last 10 meetings, Salt Lake have won 5, San Jose 4, with 1 draw, and the goal difference is 19-18 in San Jose's favour. At this ground, in the 5 meetings played here, Salt Lake have won 3 and San Jose 2, with no draws. The most recent meeting was in July 2025, when Salt Lake won 2-1 at home. San Jose's last away win against Salt Lake was in 2024.
Who carries more threat
San Jose hold a clear attacking edge, scoring 1.8 goals per match away from home, which is better than the league average for an away side on the road. Salt Lake manage 1.9 goals per home match, level with the league average for a home side at home. The visitors' away scoring rate is nearly identical to the hosts' home rate, but San Jose's overall attacking output is stronger, with 50 goals this season compared to Salt Lake's 41.
Who is more solid
San Jose have the clearer defensive edge, conceding just 1.3 goals per match away from home, which is better than the league average conceded by an away side on the road. Salt Lake concede 1.4 goals per home match, level with the league average for a home side at home. The visitors have kept 7 clean sheets this season compared to Salt Lake's 3, and San Jose's away defensive record is the stronger of the two.
Who works the keeper harder
San Jose average 5.14 shots on target per match, compared to Salt Lake's 4.57, giving the visitors a clear edge in testing the goalkeeper. Salt Lake see more of their shots blocked, averaging 2.5 blocked shots per match versus San Jose's 2.11. The visitors also win more corners, 6.32 per match to Salt Lake's 4.75, suggesting they sustain more pressure in the final third.
When the danger comes
Salt Lake are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, scoring 22% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, though they are equally dangerous in the 16-30 minute window with another 22%. San Jose's peak scoring window is the opening 15 minutes, where they score 24% of their goals. Defensively, both teams are most vulnerable late: Salt Lake concede 22% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while San Jose concede 28% in the same period.
The goal environment
Salt Lake's matches have been high-scoring, with 67.86% of their games going over 2.5 goals this season, and 71.43% of their home matches doing so. San Jose's matches have been slightly less open, with 57.14% going over 2.5 goals overall and 50% of their away matches. Salt Lake have failed to score in 21.43% of their matches, while San Jose have failed to score in just 14.29%. The hosts' home matches average 3.36 combined goals, compared to 3.07 for San Jose's away matches.
The totals read
Our model puts the probability of over 3.25 goals at 44.6%, while the market prices it at 49.0%. That leaves our read about 4.3 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that suggests the season record sees slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
How this shapes up
San Jose arrive as the better side on almost every measure: stronger form, a higher table position, a more dangerous away attack and a tighter away defence. Salt Lake's home record is respectable, but their recent form is poor, with five losses in six. The visitors' unbeaten run and their edge in shots on target and clean sheets point to them controlling the match. Expect San Jose to create the clearer chances, with Salt Lake relying on late pressure, where they score a fifth of their goals.