LaLiga 26/27 · Round 8 ·
Racing Santander vs Valencia CF preview: Santander host Valencia with both sides desperate for points
Santander's home form is the one solid thing either side brings to El Sardinero, where Valencia arrive with the league's weakest attack. The market prices the hosts at 43% to win, but the season's numbers say the real gap is in how each side defends away from home.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is unavailable
Valencia are missing four players, and the most significant is forward Umar Sadiq. He has scored 1 goal this season, which is 25% of their total, so his absence removes a quarter of an already thin attack. Sergi Canos and Diego Lopez are also forwards ruled out through injury, while defender Dimitri Foulquier completes the list. Santander report no unavailable players, which means their leading scorer Yassir Zabiri is available to lead the line.
Players to watch
Yassir Zabiri is the clear focal point for Santander. The forward has 6 goals in 7 matches, which is 55% of their goals in this competition, and he sits fifth in the scoring chart. Valencia's top scorer is Luis Rioja with just 1 goal in 4 matches, a figure that underlines how little firepower they have. With Sadiq out, Rioja and midfielder Aaron Mayol, who also has 1 goal, carry the scoring burden.
Recent form
Santander have taken 6 points from their last six league matches, with a record of two wins and four defeats. Valencia have managed only 3 points from the same window, with one win and five losses. Both sides lost their most recent league match. Across their last five matches in all competitions, Santander have lost four and won one, while Valencia have lost five of their last six. Santander have had 22 days since their last match, one day more than Valencia's 21.
Table positions
Santander sit 16th with 7 points, three points clear of Valencia in 19th with 4. The home side's record at El Sardinero is two wins and a draw from three matches, with a goal difference of plus 2. Valencia's away record is one win and two defeats from three, with a goal difference of minus 2. Santander have taken 7 points at home this season, while Valencia have taken 3 on the road.
Head to head
Across 10 meetings from 2008 to 2012, Valencia have won 4 to Santander's 1, with 5 draws. The goals are close: Valencia scored 14 to Santander's 12. The most recent meeting, in January 2012, ended 2-2. In the 5 meetings at this ground, Valencia won 2 and there were 3 draws, with Santander failing to win any of them.
Attacking threat
Santander score 2.3 goals per home match, which is clearly better than the league average for a home side at home of 1.7. Valencia manage just 0.7 goals per away match, clearly worse than the league average for an away side on the road of 1.3. Santander hold a large attacking edge. Across the whole season, Santander average 1.6 goals per match, while Valencia average 0.6.
Defensive solidity
Valencia concede 1.3 goals per away match, which is better than the league average for an away side on the road of 1.7, though the margin is only marginal. Santander concede 1.7 goals per home match, clearly worse than the league average for a home side at home of 1.3. Valencia hold a large defensive edge. Across the whole season, Santander concede 3.0 goals per match, while Valencia concede 1.9.
Shot efficiency
Santander average 4.0 shots on target per match, compared with Valencia's 2.71. Valencia see more of their shots blocked, at 2.71 per match against Santander's 2.14. Santander also average more shots off target, 3.43 to Valencia's 3.0. The home side works the opposing goalkeeper harder, while Valencia's attempts are more often stopped before they arrive.
When goals arrive
Santander are most dangerous between minutes 16 and 30, scoring 36% of their goals in that window. Valencia are most vulnerable late, conceding 38% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90, while their own scoring share in that same band is 50%. Santander score 82% of their goals in the first half, a front-loaded pattern that is 36 points above the league share. Valencia's first-half scoring share is just 25%, well below the league's 46%.
Goal environment
Santander's matches have been high-scoring: 86% of their games this season have gone over 2.5 goals, and in their home matches that figure is 100%. Valencia's matches have been much tighter, with 43% going over 2.5 goals overall and 33% in their away matches. Santander have failed to score in 29% of matches this season, but never at home. Valencia have failed to score in 57% of matches overall, though only 33% on the road.
The verdict
Santander's home attack against Valencia's away defence is the clearest mismatch, but Valencia's defensive edge on the road keeps the contest closer than the table suggests. Expect Santander to push early, given their first-half scoring pattern, while Valencia's late vulnerability could open the match after the break. The home side's unbeaten home record gives them a real platform, but Valencia's ability to keep away matches tight means a low-scoring first half is plausible.